MLB Power Rankings: Projected AL East standings after Max Fried, Juan Soto decisions

The Hot Stove has reached full blaze over the last couple of days. Late Sunday night, Juan Soto landed with the New York Mets on a historic, $765 million deal. And on Tuesday, the New York Yankees answered back, handing Max Fried an eight-year, $218 million contract that represents the largest guarantee ever given to a left-handed pitcher.

Two of this offseason's biggest dominos have already fallen, shifting the landscape of the league considerably — and, more specifically, the landscape of the AL East. The most rugged division in the league has been at the center of the baseball universe this winter: First, the Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays all swung and missed on Soto, and then all three proceeded to pivot to freed, with New York only coming out on top thanks to a godfather offer from Brian Cashman.

The 2024 champion already looks a lot different than it did just a couple of months ago, while other contenders have been frustratingly quiet. With Soto and Fried off the board, let's take a look at how things stand, and which teams have more work to do in the days and weeks to come.

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5. Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays finished last in 2024, and everything that could go wrong has gone wrong so far this offseason. Toronto wound up not even coming close in the Soto sweepstakes, then missed on Fried as well; at this point, it's an open question whether Ross Atkins can convince any big-name free agent to take the Jays' money. And that's a problem, because without an immediate infusion of impact talent, this team just has too many holes to meaningfully contend in 2025 — and convince Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette to stick around for the long haul.

Atkins filled one of those holes on Tuesday night, swinging a trade for Cleveland Guardians second baseman Andres Gimenez. Gimenez is a solid player and spectacular defender, but he won't solve Toronto's lack of pop offensively, and there are still needs at third base, the corner outfield spots, DH and up and down the pitching staff. At this point, it seems more likely that the Jays eventually admit defeat and deal Guerrero Jr. than make a big splash.

4. Tampa Bay Rays

Don't sleep on the Rays entirely: 2024 was a lost season, but the team has a bunch of pitching coming back from injury next season, headlined by Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs. Add Ryan Pepiot and Taj Bradley to the mix, and suddenly you've got one of the highest-upside rotations in all of baseball on your hands.

Scoring runs is another matter, though. Even with a leap from top prospect Junior Caminero, it's unclear where offensive production is going to come from, and that's even assuming that the team doesn't trade second baseman Brandon Lowe before he hits free agency. Tampa Bay always finds a way, and they could pitch their way to contention next season, but right now there's too much injury risk in the rotation and too many easy outs in the lineup to project them any higher than fourth.

3. Boston Red Sox

Another offseason, another round of apparently empty rhetoric from Craig Breslow promising Red Sox fans that this winter will be different. Boston missed out on three top targets in Soto, Fried and Blake Snell, and it's unclear where exactly they go from here. Corbin Burnes is still out there, but his price just went way up. The Red Sox have as much prospect talent ot trade from as any organization in baseball, but will Breslow actually pull the trigger?

If not, then this team profiles much like last year's, an intriguing collection of talent that ultimately doesn't have enough to meaningfully contend. Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, Triston Casas and Wilyer Abreu is a solid start to a lineup, but there are big holes to fill in left field and up the middle. Similarly, there's plenty to like about Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock, but not so much that you really fear them, and the bullpen needs a ton of work even with Aroldis Chapman in tow. This roster is crying out for another star to solidfy everything, but Breslow keeps missing his chance.

2. Baltimore Orioles

You could make an argument for the O's taking the top spot here. The return of Grayson Rodriguez will help the pitching staff considerably, and Baltimore still has as deep a pool of position player talent as anyone in the division. Really, this comes down to Corbin Burnes: If Mike Elias finds a way to bring his ace back, the Orioles are in business; if not, I have some questions about a pitching staff that has plenty of options but not all that many sure things.

Snagging Tyler O'Neill on a three-year deal was a nice bit of business, and he should benefit from the new dimensions at Camden Yards. I'm just not sure this offense is solid enough as things stand to hit their way to the playoffs if the pitching staff falls apart, which feels like it's on the table given all the injury risk to guys like Grayson Rodriguez, Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish.

1. New York Yankees

Losing Soto hurt a lot; there's no way to replace a talent like that, and the Yankees will be worse in 2025 without him than they would be with him. But with Fried in tow, this is an exciting rotation, especially if Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt continue to come along. The offense definitely needs a lot of work; right now, Aaron Judge would project to set a new Major League record for walks in a single season. But Judge and Giancarlo Stanton still count for something in the middle of the lineup, and New York has more sure things on its roster right now than any of its counterparts.

Granted, this could all change soon, as Boston, New York, Toronto and Baltimore all surely have more big moves in their sights. But the Yankees have the best hitter and the best (two) pitchers in the division as things stand, and that counts for a lot.