High expectations for red-hot Andrew Painter could complicate Phillies offseason plans

The Philadelphia Phillies' season did not end on the best of terms, but there is already something to look forward to in 2025. Andrew Painter, the Phillies' No. 2 prospect and MLB Pipeline's No. 32 overall prospect, is back from elbow surgery, which cost him the entire Triple-A season.

Making his debut in the Arizona Fall League on Saturday, Painter pitched two innings and gave fans plenty to get excited about.

It was not a perfect outing, but his stuff looked good and he displayed impressive command for a pitcher returning from months of elbow rehab.

There is real belief that Painter, 21, can factor into the Phillies' big-league pitching staff as soon as next season. Philadelphia shouldn't rush the process, but the fifth slot in the Phillies' starting rotation was a bugaboo all season long. Taijuan Walker is still under contract, but he just can't be part of the Phillies' game plan in 2025. Philadelphia has its top-four starters on lockdown — Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez — but that fifth slot is wide open.

One would expect the Phillies to pursue a more established option given their postseason aspirations, but Painter could force Philadelphia to throw even its most ambitious offseason plans to the wind. Former MLB GM Jim Bowden is already throwing out a bold prediction for Painter's 2025 campaign.

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Andrew Painter could force Phillies to abandon pursuit of top available pitchers

There is an expectation going into this offseason that Philadelphia will take a swing at Garrett Crochet, who survived the trade deadline with the Chicago White Sox. Crochet's fastball crests above 100 MPH and he was often the lone bright spot on a historically bad White Sox team, completing 32 starts with a 3.58 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

At just 25 years old, the big sticking point with Crochet at the deadline was his desire for a new contract. The Phillies generally leap at the opportunity to extend young, productive players, and this should be no different. Crochet began last season with durability concerns, but he finished the campaign strong and looked just as effective in August and he did in June.

If the Phillies were to add Crochet, that would put four 2024 All-Stars in their starting rotation, plus Nola. That is the best five-man group in the National League by a healthy margin, and it effectively establishes Philadelphia as the preseason title favorite (for as much good as that's done teams of late).

The Phillies were also in the mix for Yoshinobu Yamamoto last winter, so who's to say they won't place a call to Corbin Burnes, or Blake Snell, or Max Fried. Those names feel far less likely than Crochet, but Philadelphia has seldom shied away from a hefty paycheck when top-shelf talent is available.

That said, if Painter is on the MLB track, that could push Philadelphia in a whole new direction. Painter is obviously much cheaper than Crochet on a new contract, not to mention the big-ticket free agents. That affordability, melded with undeniable live-wire talent, could vault Painter to the forefront of Philadelphia's rotation plans.

He would be well insulated by four veteran starters and the National League's top bullpen, not to mention a (normally) dependable offense. Painter is sure to take his lumps as a rookie, but the upside could be worth an early gamble. Especially if it frees up Dave Dombrowski and the front office to pour financial resources into the outfield, where help is more needed.

I'd love to see Crochet smoking batters in a Phillies uniform as much as the next guy, but if Painter is ready to cook at the MLB level, Philadelphia ought to let him.