MLB Rumors: Juan Soto deferred money, Astros Bregman disadvantage, Counsell's familiar move

Now that the champagne has been popped and the parade has been held, it's time to start shifting our attention from the postseason to Hot Stove season. And what a winter this promises to be, with Juan Soto highlighting a star-studded free-agent class and plenty of teams with money to burn. Here's a quick lap around the rumor mill, with all the latest on Soto's potential contract structure, the Houston Astros' pursuit of Alex Bregman and Craig Counsell putting one over on the Milwaukee Brewers one more time.

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How much deferred money could a Juan Soto deal include?

Where Juan Soto will sign is the biggest question of this offseason, with the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies and more looking to secure the outfielder's services. But what might an eventual Soto contract look like?

Recent reports suggest that Soto and his agent, Scott Boras, have now set their sights on at least matching the $700 million given to Shohei Ohtani last winter. Of course, that deal was made possible by a whopping $680 million in deferred money, drastically reducing the actual value of the contract. Boras is unlikely to agree to such a team-friendly structure, but if he wants to get his client into the Ohtani stratosphere, he'll have to compromise at least somewhat: A recent Spotrac estimate suggests that Soto can match Ohtani's career earnings with a 12-year, $660 million deal, of which some $215 million would be deferred.

It's clear at this point that the original $500-600 million estimates made at the start of this season have been blown right past. But Ohtani's deal was something of a black swan event, and something in between $600 and $700 million feels like the best bet at this point.

Can Astros sell Alex Bregman on long-term success?

The Houston Astros are facing something of a Catch-22 this offseason. The team's clearest path to contention in 2025 is to bring back pending free agent Alex Bregman, especially considering the dearth of other third-base options on the market this winter. But the only way Bregman re-signs is if he feels like Houston is set to contend both next year and into the future.

“That’s something I want to do for my whole career is win,” Bregman told The Athletic in September. “That’s what I value the most coming up is winning.”

Can the Astros successfully convince Bregman that Houston is the place to make that happen? This is a crossroads offseason, with both Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez entering their final seasons of team control. The team still hopes to sign one or both to a long-term deal, but owner Jim Crane has been reticent to hand out that kind of contract in the past. And while dealing Tucker and/or Valdez would be a boon to what is generally regarded as among the worst farm systems in baseball, it'll inevitably mean a step back in the short-term that Bregman almost certainly doesn't want to take.

Craig Counsell poaches another Brewers coach

After bolting for the Chicago Cubs last October, Craig Counsell found himself a bit behind the 8-ball, unable to assemble his ideal coaching staff based on how late in the cycle it already was. This offseason represents an opportunity to reset, so perhaps it's no surprise that Counsell is going back to the source: The former Brewers skipper has convinced Milwaukee first-base coach Quintin Berry to come to the North Side, where he'll serve as third-base coach.

Berry also served as the Brewers' baserunning coach, instrumental in the high-flying, aggressive style that characterized Milwaukee over the past couple of years. He'll look to have a similar effect on what was a relatively plodding Cubs team last season. It also represents another shot fired in the growing cold war between these two franchises, as Counsell looks to prove that he was justified in stiffing Milwaukee for an NL Central rival.