4 Blake Snell backup plans for Red Sox that Craig Breslow needs to sign ASAP
The Boston Red Sox are apparently already 0-for-2 on the starting pitching market in free agency. Granted, it's still early. However, on Tuesday night we saw Blake Snell, a player that Craig Breslow and the Red Sox brass has been talking to and working toward signing, land a deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Once you get over that sickening feeling of losing out the Dodgers as a Red Sox fan, though, you start to realize the reality of the situation. And you start to feel like doing whatever you can to push Craig Breslow to pivot, pivot quickly, and to make it splashy.
Because not only did the Red Sox whiff on Snell, they were also reportedly in on Yusei Kikuchi before he signed with the Angels, per Mark Feisnand of MLB.com.
So with the Red Sox missing on one of their reported top targets in Snell and the need for front-line starting pitching still at an all-time high, Breslow needs to act fast. Specifically, he needs to move on to one (or multiple) of these backup plans and get them to put a name on the dotted line.
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4. Red Sox-Garrett Crochet trade now sounds much more palatable
Despite the obvious fit that the Red Sox provide as trade partners for Garrett Crochet in a deal with the Chicago White Sox. It has, at times, been hard to swallow — largely because the reported price tag for a Crochet trade has been a moving target. Some reports make it sound as if one of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell or Marcelo Mayer would have to be in the deal, others have made it sound like Wilyer Abreu and another Top 6-10 level prospect in the organization could make it happen.
With Snell on the market and the potential for options to dry up quickly, though, Crochet becomes substantially more attractive, especially if Breslow can negotiate a deal at a non-Big 4 price.
There is obvious risk when it comes to Crochet, namely that he's still not proven himself as a starter with starts that have lasted into the sixth inning you can count on one hand in his career. The potential is why you would bank on the southpaw, though. There aren't many lefties that have the pure stuff that Crochet offers and who also have his flashes of long-term potential as a starter.
Again, the main thing with Crochet for me will always be "at the right price". The Red Sox have enough talent and depth in the organization, though, that the "right price" could still be enough to appease Chicago and let Boston take a massive swing at a potential superstar southpaw.
3. Boston shouldn't sleep on Shane Bieber
When the free agent pitching market has been brought up, far too often it seems that people have either overlooked or undervalued Shane Bieber. But, correct me if I'm wrong here — isn't htis a guy who won the Cy Young just in 2020? Before you talk about that being the COVID-shortened season, I understand that. However, a 1.63 ERA and 0.866 WHIP over 12 starts is what it is.
And it's also not like Bieber has been a complete waste of a spot in the rotation outside of that season. Since 2019 (so excluding his rookie season), Bieber has posted a 3.02 ERA with a 1.081 WHIP and 3.07 FIP across 115 starts with Cleveland and 728.1 innings. He's been absolute nails and is actually almost a full year younger at 29 than the top of the free agent market.
Of course, the reason he's been set aside in a different category is Bieber underwent Tommy John surgery early in the 2024 season, making only two starts. So as he makes his way back, it's exceedingly likely he's not ready for Opening Day and may not pitch until the end of the spring.
At the same time, if you're the Red Sox looking for a long-term investment, that should still be highly enticing. It may sacrifice some immediate value but so much about his offseason is spurred on because of the future withing the organization. If Bieber returns from the injury and it's more of the same of what he's already done, he could be an integral part of that future.
2. Corbin Burnes is going to cost them but he'd be worth it
Despite the connection to Snell and the lefty being the first top-line starter to sign this free agency period, Corbin Burnes remains the biggest get for whichever team signs him. The 30-year-old righty already has an NL Cy Young under his belt from the 2021 season with the Milwaukee Brewers but has also not finished worse than eighth in Cy Young voting in any of the past five seasons.
The overall numbers for Burnes are enticing in themselves. Since he became a full-time starter in 2020, Burnes has a 2.88 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and 3.01 FIP to his name across 134 starts. He's been nails.
What should make Burnes even more enticing for the Red Sox is that he now has plenty of AL East seasoning under his belt. After the Orioles traded for him last offseason, he immediately joined the hotly contested division and only continued his tour of domination, posting a 2.92 ERA with a 1.096 WHIP. For the mental game of pitching, that can't be overlooked.
It's going to cost perhaps even more than the Snell contract but, for what Burnes has proven to be on the mound, it's hard to argue it's not worth it for Boston.
1. Max Fried or Bust is the new Red Sox mantra
Anyone reading the tea leaves and paying attention to the current rotation in Boston could see that a left-handed starter was a big-time desire for Breslow and the front office. So with one of the two big-time free agent southpaws now off the board in Snell, it only figures that the Red Sox would then heavily and aggressively pivot to the other, Max Fried.
And according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, that's indeed the case as he reported after the Snell news that Boston is now "focusing" on Fried, assumedly as a top target:
Fried would certainly be anything but a consolation prize. The will-be-31-year-old leftyhas been dominant in his eight seasons with the Braves. He's had an ERA higher than 3.25 just once since his rookie season, has a career 1.16 WHIP, has a vicious pitch mix that should age well along with him, and is battle-tested with the success Atlanta has enjoyed.
While he might not be the strikeout artist that Snell is, Fried has prove equally effective in his career and should no doubt be the backup plan that the Red Sox can't leave this offseason without.