MLB Power Rankings: Which teams have the best chance to sign Roki Sasaki?

The majority of MLB free agency headlines have been reserved for Juan Soto, which is understandable. There's a real chance he breaks Shohei Ohtani's record for the most valuable contract in league history. His presence will dramatically impact the World Series odds of whichever team comes out on top.

That said, while other established All-Stars are up for grabs this winter, the second most important free agent name might be Roki Sasaki. The 23-year-old ace from Japan is soon to be posted. He will sign after Jan. 15 as part of the MLB's international signing class, which will maximize the (small amount of) money he can receive from prospective suitors.

Sasaki isn't eligible for the mega-contract fellow countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto received last winter, but he's the most anticipated pitching talent to join the league in ages. Some view Sasaki as a potential candidate for multiple Cy Young awards down the line. He's exceedingly gifted, equipped with triple-digit heat and a ghostly splitter that regularly leaves hitters swinging at air.

According to Will Sammon of The Athletic, Sasaki's priorities are stability, lifestyle, comfort, and a team's player development track record. Those are all vague qualifications that are difficult to define, but it does generally favor well-run, big-market franchises.

Based on the latest reporting on the subject and the general feel around this free agency class, here are the most probable landing spots for Sasaki.

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5. Atlanta Braves can put Roki Sasaki in a perfect position to succeed

In terms of stability and comfort, how many franchises can earnestly contend with the Atlanta Braves? Sasaki would be a centerpiece of the south's biggest baseball market, planted in a rotation brimming with high-end talent. Sasaki would get to learn from Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, and the like, joining a Braves team that has developed most of its elite talent internally.

We don't see too many Japanese stars taking their talents to the southeast, but Sasaki would be uniquely positioned to soak up the spotlight in Atlanta, on a team with genuine World Series aspirations and a favorable long-term outlook. The Braves should be contending for years to come, with Sasaki able to develop at his own pace. Max Fried and Charlie Morton are both free agents, so this is a unique chance for Atlanta to add a premium arm at a bargain-bin price.

Jim Bowden of The Athletic made note of Atlanta as a potential destination due to its strong player development pipeline. The Braves are coming off of a down year due to injury, but once they're back to full strength, there shouldn't be many better teams in the MLB. That is especially true if Atlanta can plug its lone point of weakness in the rotation with a future ace like Sasaki.

4. Philadelphia Phillies would love to get Roki Sasaki in their building

The Philadelphia Phillies famously offered Yoshinobu Yamamoto more money than he received from the Dodgers last winter — without an in-person meeting. The Phillies have been sending more scouts to Japan in hopes of breaking into the Asian marketplace. Philadelphia can't win this free agency sweepstakes with money, but the Phils can mount an impressive case for their organization as a springboard for Sasaki's next chapter.

John Middleton is more committed to winning than your standard owner, which plays into the whole "stability" element Sasaki prioritizes. The Phillies are loaded with star power and should be good for a long time. Meanwhile, the starting rotation features three 2024 All-Stars (Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez) and the battle-tested Aaron Nola, all locked up for the foreseeable future. The Phillies are just missing a quality fifth starter, which Sasaki can provide it for the next decade. He gives Rob Thomson a potential heir to Wheeler's No. 1 billing down the line.

Philadelphia does not feature the most robust player development system, but there is plenty of buzz around names like Andrew Painter and Aidan Miller these days. We've seen Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and others emerge from the youth pool as immediate contributors. Nola, Suarez. The Phillies built from within before handing out big-ticket contracts to Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and the like. Sasaki can have confidence that Philadelphia will be competitive for the bulk of his prime.

3. New York Mets can pair Roki Sasaki with Kodai Senga atop reworked rotation

The New York Mets appear to be the east coast favorites as far as Sasaki is concerned. It starts, of course, with Kodai Senga, who landed with the Mets a few years ago and experienced immediate success. According to Will Sammon of The Athletic, the Mets have a good feel for the market and Senga's MLB transition was viewed "favorably" by peers.

It also helps that Steve Cohen is the richest owner in baseball. That won't do much for Sasaki's wallet in the immediate future, but it increases the odds that New York will pay up when the time for an extension arrives. It should also help keep the Mets competitive on a yearly basis, especially with presumed MVP runner-up Francisco Lindor at the front end of his prime. The Mets' offense projects well long term — especially if Juan Soto signs on — and the bullpen should come around quickly.

There is also a certain desperation around the Mets to land a quality pitcher. Senga has cemented his status as an ace, but Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, and Sean Manaea are all free agents this winter. The Mets need to restock in the rotation and Sasaki is imminently appealing. Even with potential workload restrictions and a slow-burn developmental track, the 23-year-old carries immediate All-Star potential. He's going to contribute next season and the Mets are looking to improve on an NLCS appearance. It's an obvious match.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers are undeniably appealing as the reigning world champs

There is a popular belief around the MLB that Sasaki's free agency will come down to two teams — the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres.

"“It’s not quite a two-horse race,” one National League executive told MLB.com's Mark Feinsand. “But those two are probably the most logical landing spots.”

The Dodgers may have the upper hand due to Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, two major international stars who immediately elevated the Dodgers to must-watch status in Sasaki's native Japan. There is a certain undeniable popularity that comes with playing for the reigning champs and pitching behind Ohtani and Yamamoto.

That said, Sasaki could also lose out on endorsement opportunities in Japan as the third wheel behind Ohtani and Yamamoto on a team brimming with star power. Since he's not getting paid more than your standard 23-year-old prospect, the Dodgers can't build their case around money. It needs to be rooted in baseball, lifestyle, and the chance to win big in October.

Depending on what exactly Sasaki prioritizes, that could leave the Dodgers at a disadvantage. LA has homegrown talent, but the Dodgers' developmental track record might not stack up to other prospective suitors. Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and of course, Ohtani and Yamamoto, were all sourced from outside the organization initially. If Sasaki can join a better pipeline on a team that markets him as a No. 1 star, well, who's to say he won't take that route?

1. San Diego Padres appear to have the momentum in Roki Sasaki rumors

The Padres have the benefit of a west coast locale and Yu Darvish, who has served as a mentorship figure for Sasaki. So deep is Sasaki's respect for Darvish, that it could ultimately inform his decision, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan.

Moreover, momentum appears to be stalling for the aforementioned Dodgers. There was a time when LA was viewed as the runaway favorite, but now, there is an "85-90 percent chance" that Sasaki signs somewhere other than Los Angeles, per Jim Bowden of The Athletic.

If he's not hellbent on the Dodgers, that opens it up to the field. But it also positions the Padres as sneaky favorites, capable of offering Sasaki the comfort of a longtime mentor, a gorgeous west coast location, and a notoriously aggressive front office, which has prioritized winning in recent years. The Padres felt like the second-best team in the National League by the end of last season. LA emerged victorious in the NLDS, but San Diego was the toughest challenge the Dodgers faced en route to their World Series crown. The Padres are the real deal.

Learning from Darvish for a couple years before taking over as the Padres' top ace ought to be an appealing path for Sasaki. This is probably the most sensible marriage out there, although this race is far from settled.