Ross Atkins is banking his job on one looming Blue Jays free-agent signing

The Toronto Blue Jays entered this offseason with a ton of urgency, coming off a last-place finish in 2024 and entering the final year of team control for both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. With a star-studded free agent class highlighted by Juan Soto and plenty of money to spend, this was going to be the winter that jumpstarted a new era of contention under GM Ross Atkins.

But after all that big talk, the Jays have fallen flat, leaving the Winter Meetings with nothing to show for their efforts but reliever Yimi Garcia and an infielder in Andres Gimenez who won't help either the team's payroll or its moribund offense. Atkins wasn't even close in his pursuit of Juan Soto. He didn't bother trying with Blake Snell or Max Fried. As names continue to fly off the board, it's getting harder and harder to see how Toronto can acquire the impact talent it needs to keep pace in the AL East.

With one exception, that is.

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Corbin Burnes is the Blue Jays last, best chance to make a splash this offseason

As the dust settles from a wild Winter Meetings, one big name remains on the market: former NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. While Snell, Fried and several other starting pitchers got paid in recent weeks, Burnes and agent Scott Boras have been content to sit back and let the righty's market get steeper and steeper. Given his track record, Burnes likely views Fried's $218 million deal as the floor in negotiations, and he can do so comfortably with the knowledge that every team who missed out on the first wave of the starting pitching market now has no other choice but to pony up.

And no team is more desperate right now than the Blue Jays. In addition to multiple bats, Toronto needs a long-term rotation anchor, and they've cornered themselves into a situation in which that pretty much has to mean Burnes. According to a recent report from Susan Slusser in the San Francisco Chronicle, they're determined not to miss out again: "As other starters came off the board and Burnes’ already high projected price tag looked to go higher, chatter about San Francisco has dipped and the Blue Jays have moved into the perceived front-runner spot."

We know that the Jays has the money to outbid any other interested suitor for Burnes, and we know they need to land him if they have any hope of salvaging this season and, by extension, Guerrero Jr. and Bichette's time in Toronto. The million-dollar question remains whether Burnes, unlike the other free agents Atkins has whiffed on, will finally take the team's money and be willing to head up north to spend the back half of his career. Atkins' job, as well as the fate of the franchise, might depend on it.