The Nolan Arenado trade rumors have run rampant all offseason. The St. Louis Cardinals made it clear that trading the slugger was Plan A, B, C and D this offseason.
And yet, more than a week into spring training, Arenado remains with the Cardinals. The Astros were close to a deal to acquire Arenado early this winter, but he nixed a trade and made it clear he did not want to go to Houston. The Boston Red Sox loomed as one possibility, but that option is dead after the team signed Alex Bregman.
Which means that, barring an unforeseen change, Arenado will remain in St. Louis through Opening Day.
Cardinals likely to hold onto Nolan Arenado amid trade saga
Really, a trade was never overly likely to begin with. Arenado’s no-trade clause limited the number of potential trade suitors. He’s 33 years old. He’s declined in performance, with his 101 OPS+ being the third worst of his 12-year major-league career, and his 16 home runs the fewest he’s had since 2015.
Then there’s Arenado’s contract. He’s due $21 million in 2025 and is owed $16 million in 2026 and $15 million in 2027 before becoming a free agent. As part of a trade, the Cardinals will surely eat some of the deal. But it’s a long and hefty commitment for any potential acquiring team considering Arenado’s decline.
And with the Red Sox out and Arenado seemingly unwilling to consider the Astros, a limited trade pool becomes virtually nonexistent. There was buzz about the New York Yankees being a possible fit this offseason, but despite Arenado going on a 3-4 bus ride to play a spring training game against the Yankees, they have little to no money available, Jon Heyman of the New York Post told me on The Baseball Insiders podcast.
Holding onto Arenado, while predictable, is an organizational failure by the Cardinals. In announcing their intention to trade Arenado, they made what was an already bad situation even more awkward. To Arenado’s credit, he’s handled the situation with class and grace and made it clear he’s prepared to play in St. Louis.
But in trading Arenado, the Cardinals wanted to shed salary and play young players in hopes of resetting for the future. But Arenado’s future, at least in 2025, appears to be in St. Louis — and further delays a reset with the Cardinals that should have happened long ago.