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MLB standings in one-run games show who’s clutch and who's collapsing

Finding a team's clutch component early can help identify who may be a World Series contender.
ByJohn Buhler|
Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs
Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs | Matt Dirksen/GettyImages

It is not everything, but it might be something. Baseball is an incredibly mental game. It is a skill game based around failure, so being able to keep one's head is paramount in deriving long-term success at it at the game's highest level. The so-called clutch gene is up for debate. It is hard to quantify, but some players have it, while others do not. What if a team seems to have it more together than others?

What I am going to do today is look at the MLB standings, based solely on a team's success, or failure, in one-run games. Some may be outliers, while others could provide a bit more information as to who might be built to go on a deep run in October. Keep in mind not everyone plays the same amount of one-run games. Being in them a bunch and winning them is not a direct correlation to team success.

Before I begin, I want to point out that I looked at all six MLB divisions through the lens of one-run game successes. A team that does well in one-run games, as well as in all their other games, may be best equipped to potentially play in and win the Fall Classic. If a team is great for the most part, but struggles in one-run games, that could be a real cause for concern when it comes to the postseason.

Let's take a look at how each division's standings would look if it were based on one-run ballgames.

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  1. American League East standings by one-run games
  2. American League Central standings by one-run games
  3. American League West standings by one-run games
  4. National League East standings by one-run games
  5. National League Central standings by one-run games
  6. National League West standings by one-run games

American League East standings by one-run games

Here is how the American League East would look if we only cared about one-run games.

  1. Toronto Blue Jays: 11-8 (38-30 overall)
  2. Baltimore Orioles: 9-8 (27-40 overall)
  3. New York Yankees: 12-11 (42-25 overall)
  4. Tampa Bay Rays: 12-12 (36-32 overall)
  5. Boston Red Sox: 7-17 (34-36 overall)

The biggest takeaway I have from this division is how poorly the Boston Red Sox have performed in one-run games. They have been hovering around .500 for a while now, but their dismal 7-17 mark has me wondering if they have the right pieces in place to go far. It also tells me that Alex Cora may not be the right fit to guide this next group of prospects coming up in the organization, who are not clutch.

American League Central standings by one-run games

Here is how the American League Central shakes out when it comes to one-run game performance.

  1. Detroit Tigers: 12-7 (45-25 overall)
  2. Cleveland Guardians: 8-6 (35-32 overall)
  3. Kansas City Royals 12-10 (34-35 overall)
  4. Minnesota Twins: 7-10 (36-32 overall)
  5. Chicago White Sox: 4-17 (23-46 overall)

The two biggest things I can derive from this division may be the Detroit Tigers are built to go far in the postseason, while the Chicago White Sox continue to play with next to no heart. Detroit's 12-7 mark in one-run games perfectly complements the Tigers' stellar 45-25 overall record. As for the White Sox, their utterly atrocious 4-17 mark in one-run games is a sign that this franchise is cooked.

American League West standings by one-run games

Based on one-run games, here is what you need to know about the entire American League West.

  1. Los Angeles Angels: 13-5 (33-34 overall)
  2. Houston Astros: 11-7 (38-30 overall)
  3. Seattle Mariners: 13-10 (33-34 overall)
  4. Texas Rangers: 9-13 (33-36 overall)
  5. Athletics: 8-12 (26-44 overall)

The biggest takeaway from this, and maybe the whole exercise, is how good the Los Angeles Angels are in one-run games. They may be 33-34 overall, but thrive in one-run spots with a 13-5 record in those situations. It tells me that Ron Washington was the secret sauce on the Atlanta Braves' coaching staff. He gets his players ready to play and has them locked into critical times in a ballgame.

National League East standings by one-run games

Looking at the National League East, here is what you need to know about the one-run ballgames.

  1. New York Mets: 15-10 (45-24 overall)
  2. Philadelphia Phillies: 12-8 (39-29 overall)
  3. Washington Nationals: 11-9 (30-38 overall)
  4. Miami Marlins: 10-13 (25-41 overall)
  5. Atlanta Braves: 9-19 (29-38 overall)

While the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies may be built for it, the Atlanta Braves are getting killed in the one-run ballgame department. This is among the key differences between these traditional powers in-division. New York and Philadelphia may have what it takes to win it all. Atlanta may not make the postseason, based on the lack of dogs that play for this team under Brian Snitker.

National League Central standings by one-run games

The National League Central standings based on one-run performance tells us quite a bit as well.

  1. Chicago Cubs: 10-5 (42-27 overall)
  2. St. Louis Cardinals: 12-10 (36-33 overall)
  3. Milwaukee Brewers: 10-9 (37-33 overall)
  4. Pittsburgh Pirates: 13-15 (28-42 overall)
  5. Cincinnati Reds: 7-10 (35-34 overall)

To me, it feels like one-run performances is the separating factor between the Chicago Cubs and the rest of the teams in their division. Most of their rivals are within a few games of .500 in the one-run decision department. Chicago being 10-5 in that regard on the season tells me that this team believes in itself. Most importantly, it suggests Craig Counsell has a great pulse of this year's team.

National League West standings by one-run games

And looking at the National League West, here is how the division stacks up with its one-run games.

  1. San Diego Padres: 14-9 (38-29 overall)
  2. San Francisco Giants: 17-13 (40-29 overall)
  3. Los Angles Dodgers: 11-9 (41-28 overall)
  4. Arizona Diamondbacks: 10-12 (34-34 overall)
  5. Colorado Rockies: 7-12 (13-55 overall)

I have three thoughts on the NL West. One, the San Diego Padres may be built for October and the tight spots it provides better than most. Two, the San Francisco Giants have played in a ton of one-run games and are deriving a ton of confidence from them. And three, the Los Angeles Dodgers are good, but not great in these spots. It may signify that the Dodgers could play tight come October.

With 3.5 months left in the regular season, look for these one-run performances to tell us even more.

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