The Philadelphia Phillies have won eight straight games to claim the best record in MLB at 33-18. In the American League, it's the Detroit Tigers on top (for now) with a 33-19 record.
We can only glean so much information from the standings this early in the season, but we generally know which teams will contend — and which teams definitely won't contend. A lot can change in the months ahead, just ask last season's Tigers. But for teams like Colorado, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, the deep introspection (and fire sales) start now. For those on the bubble, or slightly underperforming relative to expectations, the crossroads is right around the corner. Those front offices have difficult decisions to make over the next several weeks.
Perhaps the best way to look at the standings is not in a vacuum, but in some sort of broader context. Take luck for example. As is the case with all sports, luck is a huge factor in MLB's win and loss columns. Baseball Reference offers fans a 'Pythagorean Win-Loss' record, defined as the "expected win-loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team." That feels like useful context for determining which teams are overperforming and underperforming relative to, well, their actual performance.
Here's how the luck standings shake out.
American League standings by luck-adjusted record
Rank | Team | pythWL Record |
|---|---|---|
1 | New York Yankees | 34-16 |
2 | Detroit Tigers | 34-18 |
3 | Minnesota Twins | 29-21 |
4 | Houston Astros | 28-23 |
5 | Seattle Mariners | 27-23 |
6 | Boston Red Sox | 28-24 |
7 | Kansas City Royals | 26-26 |
8 | Tampa Bay Rays | 25-25 |
9 | Texas Rangers | 25-27 |
10 | Cleveland Guardians | 24-26 |
11 | Toronto Blue Jays | 24-26 |
12 | Los Angeles Angels | 21-29 |
13 | Chicago White Sox | 19-32 |
14 | Athletics | 19-33 |
15 | Baltimore Orioles | 15-34 |
Are the Yankees really, truly the "best team" in baseball? Well, I guess we all find out in October. New York certainly has a compelling blend of veteran sluggers, up-and-coming talent, and steadfast pitchers, even amid all the injuries. Max Fried and Carlos Rodón are both pitching at an All-Star level in Gerrit Cole's absence. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge is going to run away with the MVP award (again).
That said, it does feel like the "luck" standings favor a certain type of team. Cleveland, for example, is chock-full of elite arms in the bullpen, but the offense lags behind — often without issue. Cleveland is six games above .500 in the real world, but two games below .500 in the realm of luck. You need to score runs to be lucky, it would seem.
National League standings by luck-adjusted record
Rank | Team | pythWL |
|---|---|---|
1 | Chicago Cubs | 33-18 |
2 | New York Mets | 32-19 |
3 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 31-20 |
4 | San Francisco Giants | 31-20 |
5 | Philadelphia Phillies | 30-21 |
6 | St. Louis Cardinals | 30-21 |
7 | Cincinnati Reds | 29-23 |
8 | San Diego Padres | 27-22 |
9 | Atlanta Braves | 26-24 |
10 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 26-25 |
11 | Milwaukee Brewers | 25-27 |
12 | Washington Nationals | 21-30 |
13 | Miami Marlins | 17-32 |
14 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 18-34 |
15 | Colorado Rockies | 12-39 |
Well, at least we know the Rockies are a double-digit win team in spirit.
There isn't too much to write home about here. The Phillies, much like the Guardians, are a team rooted in dominant pitching, which tends to get tossed under the rug in this "luck" calculation, which weighs runs scored by a team and runs scored against a team in equal measure.
These standings will give some small solace to Mets fans, who are having a difficult week after the Subway Series. Juan Soto are completely morphed into self-parody of late, but New York still has sluggers out the wazoo and a steadfast rotation. That team is built to contend, just as much as it's built to sell tickets.
Chicago at No. 1 does feel noteworthy. The Cubs were plus-five wins in the luck standings last season; they're plus-two right now. With Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong in the MVP race and an offense that suddenly feels like it can trade blows with any team, the Cubs are a real threat looking toward October.