Massive contracts and blockbuster trades won’t be the only noteworthy events at the 2026 Winter Meetings. When teams assemble in Lake Buena Vista, Fla., a portion of the league will gather for the 2026 MLB Draft lottery.
And although the MLB Draft’s No. 1 pick went to the league’s worst team for decades, things have gotten slightly more complicated. Unlike past seasons, not every bad team is eligible for the top pick — and the Rockies are the most notable casualty of MLB’s tanking-prevention rules. Teams also can’t trade draft picks, and some clubs can miss the playoffs and still be shut out of the lottery entirely. Here’s everything you need to know about the 2026 MLB Draft lottery.
What is the MLB Draft lottery?
Major League Baseball introduced the draft lottery ahead of the 2023 draft. The format differs a bit from the NBA Draft lottery. In basketball, the ping pong balls in question apply to the league’s 14 worst teams — and, technically, the teams that own one of those 14 picks via trade. Brooklyn Nets fans (yes, we exist) are still sick about the infamous 2013 trade that sent a plethora of draft picks to the Boston Celtics.
Things work differently in baseball, though. The eligible non-playoff teams (more on them later) enter a lottery for the top six choices, with the worst teams understandably having the best odds. That’s not to say that a team like the New York Mets (83-79) or Houston Astros (87-75) can’t win the lottery and pick No. 1. However, you’re far likelier to see a team like the Baltimore Orioles, who finished 75-87, earn the top selection.
2026 MLB Draft lottery odds
As of Dec. 4, 2025, here are the 2026 MLB Draft lottery odds:
Team | Odds |
|---|---|
Chicago White Sox | 27.73% |
Minnesota Twins | 22.18% |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 16.81% |
Baltimore Orioles | 9.24% |
Athletics | 6.55% |
Atlanta Braves | 4.54% |
Tampa Bay Rays | 3.03% |
St. Louis Cardinals | 2.35% |
Miami Marlins | 1.85% |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 1.51% |
Texas Rangers | 1.34% |
San Francisco Giants | 1.01% |
Kansas City Royals | 0.84% |
New York Mets | 0.67% |
Houston Astros | 0.34% |
There are two important factors to keep in mind with the MLB Draft: first, teams cannot trade standard draft picks. If the Orioles win the lottery, they’re picking No. 1 whether they want to or not. League rules prohibit the Orioles, or any other team, from trading the draft pick.
As for the other noteworthy rule? Let’s just say that Colorado Rockies fans won’t be thrilled to hear this one.
Why can’t the Colorado Rockies earn the 2026 MLB Draft’s No. 1 pick?
When the league introduced the draft lottery, it included a key rule that teams cannot have a top-six pick for three straight years. Additionally, teams in larger markets are ineligible to participate in the lottery for consecutive seasons. This year’s ineligible teams are the Rockies, Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Angels.
That’s especially bad news for the Rockies, who flirted with the White Sox’s 2024 record of 121 losses before finishing 43-19. The Rockies picked University of Georgia outfielder Charlie Condon No. 3 in 2024 and used the No. 4 pick on Oklahoma high school shortstop Ethan Holliday this past summer.
Don’t feel bad if you’re divided about whether or not this rule is fair. On the one hand, it’s designed to prevent tanking, and it theoretically incentivizes teams to spend in free agency and build a championship-caliber roster. However, the Rockies have been one of baseball’s worst franchises throughout the 2020s. There’s a clear line, though, between a front office seemingly trying to lose and an organization simply doing a terrible job putting a team together. Then again, maybe those organizations should be punished.