Vibes are approaching an all-time low around the New York Yankees right now. That's what happens when you allow a whopping 23 runs across two embarrassing losses to the Toronto Blue Jays to put yourself on the brink of elimination in the ALDS.
Just about everything that could go wrong in Toronto did go wrong. The offense no-showed in a winnable spot in Game 1, and then Max Fried laid yet another October egg to end Game 2 almost as soon as it began. The Yankees hardly belonged on the same field as this Blue Jays team in all facets.
But of course, as a wise catcher once said, it ain't over 'til it's over. And for as much negativity surrounds this team right now, the fact remains that the season is not yet over — and now come two straight home games that have the potential to flip all these narratives on their head.
Will the Yankees be able to take advantage? Based on how this past weekend went down, absolutely not. But while there's more than ample reason for skepticism, there are also some reasons to believe that a comeback isn't impossible.
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Three reasons a Yankees ALDS comeback is within reach
1. They've done it before
Twice, in fact. Ten teams in MLB history have managed to erase a 2-0 deficit in a best-of-five playoff series, and two of them were the Yankees: first in 2001 against the A's, and more recently in 2017 against Cleveland.
Granted, that 2017 series didn't have nearly as lopsided a start as we saw in Toronto over the weekend; the Yankees were in prime position to take Game 2 before a bullpen implosion got in the way. Still, an 0-2 hole is an 0-2 hole, and a young New York squad responded by winning three in a row — including a gutsy performance on the road in a winner-take-all Game 5.
Of course, a lot has changed since then. Joe Girardi is no longer the manager, for starters, and nearly the entire roster has been overturned. The one player still around all these years later? Some guy named Aaron Judge, who delivered a critical swing in the Yankees' 7-3 win in Game 4.
2. The pitching matchups
Needing to survive a Wild Card series against the Boston Red Sox put the Yankees behind the 8-ball when it came to starting pitching plans to begin the ALDS; no one in the organization likely felt great about the prospect of rolling Luis Gil out there for Game 1 on the road. But the silver lining, if you can call it that, is that now the rotation battle tilts more towards New York as the series heads back to the Bronx for Game 3.
Carlos Rodon will get the ball on Tuesday night, and while the command is always a concern for the lefty, the Yankees still have to feel pretty good about lining him up against Jays righty Shane Bieber. When he's on, he can put a team on his back. And Game 4, if New York makes it that far, would pit Yankees rookie sensation Cam Schlittler against what's shaping up to be a bullpen game for Toronto. (Neither Max Scherzer nor Chris Bassitt are on the ALDS roster.)
Of course, there are no guarantees at this time of year, and the Jays offense has been a wagon all season long. But it's not hard to envision a world in which the Yankees have the pitching advantage in each of the next two games — which will take at least some pressure off of a lineup that's been struggling mightily of late.
3. This offense can still win a game on its own
Any way you slice it, the Yankees were baseball's best offense by a comfortable margin during the regular season. And then, as has been all too familiar in recent years, the calendar turned to October — and everything's promptly fallen apart.
A team that was among the most patient in the league is now expanding the zone at an alarming rate. The power that carried New York to an MLB-leading 274 homers — a whopping 30 more than the second-place Dodgers — has more or less evaporated. This team looks nothing like what it did for the last six months, leaving Yankees fans desperate for answers.
None of which inspires much confidence in a sudden turnaround beginning on Tuesday night. But the fact remains that the potential is here, and if they get hot, the Yankees have a lineup that can change the tenor of this series in a hurry. There's a reason this team had the league's second-best run differential during the regular season; they can score runs in bunches, and if one of those barrages comes at just the right time, winning two home games in a row and sending things back to Toronto for Game 5 feels more than doable. And from there, who knows?
Two reasons it won't
1. Toronto has been the seventh circle of Hell
Unfortunately, even if the Yankees do turn things around and take care of business at home ... that still leaves one more game they need to win back at Rogers Centre. And that's a terrifying prospect for New York, based on how this year has gone.
It's not even just what happened in Games 1 and 2 of this series. During the regular season, the Yankees were 1-6 in Toronto, and many of those losses came in truly confounding fashion. Maybe it's the crowd, maybe it's the Jays' comfort at home, maybe it's the stress of going through customs. Whatever the case, though, playing at Rogers Centre turns New York from a functional baseball team to one that consistently makes losing plays — in the field, at the plate and on the bases.
It's not that hard to see the Yankees winning Games 3 and 4 to get back into this series, especially given the pitching matchups on tap. That would still leave a winner-take-all game in front of a raucous crowd in Canada, and it's almost impossible to see the Yankees winning that one. f
2. This team is just impossible to trust
Which brings us to the heart of the matter: What about the course of this Yankees season would have you believe that they're capable of going three straight games, in October no less, without doing something mind-bogglingly stupid?
We can talk about run differential and homers and everything else all we want. But there's a reason why those things didn't result in this team winning the AL East: Time and time again, they committed errors and baserunning gaffes and poor situational hitting to lose games. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, were consistently more than the sum of their parts.
Maybe this will finally be the moment in which Judge and the rest of New York's underperforming stars can reverse their bad postseason mojo. But it does feel like the Yankees have already told us who they are, and that lack of discipline and intestinal fortitude will do them in sooner rather than later.