The St. Louis Cardinals have been on quite the roller coaster ride over the last year. Last season, their front office went for it and became buyers at the trade deadline. This resulted in the Cardinals being involved in a three-team trade that sent Tommy Edman to the Los Angeles Dodgers and brought Erick Fedde to St. Louis among other moving parts. A year later, this trade looks like a disaster for the Cardinals.
St. Louis went into the offseason and let a lot of veterans walk away in free agency. It only signed one player and seemed to be preparing for quite the rebuild. But the players came out hot and won a lot of games early in the season. This resulted in a bunch of mixed rumors surrounding the Cardinals. Would they buy? Would they sell? Would they end up somewhere in the middle?
Following a losing stretch of games, the Cardinals are poised to be sellers unless they make another 180-degree turn. Who would the Cardinals look to shop at the trade deadline and who won't be on the roster?
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RHP Erick Fedde
The Cardinals should trade right-hander Erick Fedde whether they're buyers or sellers at the trade deadline and there are a few simple reasons for this.
Fedde will likely regress to the mean in the coming weeks. He's tremendously benefitted from the dominant Cardinals defense that ranks among the league's best in nearly every statistical category. Fedde's xERA is much higher than his real ERA, which isn't an exact science, but it does indicate he's getting a bit lucky with batted balls in play right now.
Fedde's also on an expiring contract which makes him an interesting trade chip. The Cardinals need to extract any kind of value they can get for him before he leaves in free agency at the end of the season. Top prospects Michael McGreevy, Tink Hence, and Quinn Mathews are among the players who will be ready to take Fedde's spot in the rotation next season.
Speaking of McGreevy, Hence, and Mathews, the Cardinals should trade Fedde to free up the rotation for one of these young stars. St. Louis is likely to be aggressive with Fedde at the deadline, and it will benefit them in the long run.
RHP Phil Maton
The Cardinals went out in free agency and signed just one player: Phil Maton. Maton set his sights on proving all the teams who didn't offer him a contract wrong. To this point, he's done just that.
In 27 1/3 innings, Maton has been magnificent for the Cardinals. He holds a 1.98 ERA, good for the best ERA on the team among pitchers with at least 10 innings. Maton also holds an impressive 2.15 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. He's limiting hard contact and getting outs on a regular basis.
If the Cardinals are sellers, Maton has to go. He's on a one-year contract and will never have more trade value than he does right now. The Cardinals signed him for next to nothing and could soon deal him away for a prospect or two. If I'm the Cardinals, this would be a clear and obvious move to make in the coming weeks.
RHP Ryan Helsley
There aren't many players on the Cardinals roster who have more trade value than closer Ryan Helsley. Helsley sits on an expiring contract and is very unlikely to be re-signed by the Cardinals in the offseason, so trading him is a no-brainer, whether the Cardinals are buyers or sellers.
Last season, the most sought after pieces at the trade deadline were relief pitchers. The top pitcher on the markets, Miami Marlins reliever Tanner Scott, was traded to the San Diego Padres in a deal that boosted the Marlins' farm system by quite a bit. Scott was having a solid season, but Helsley is right there next to him in terms of talent.
This season, Helsley is expected to be the top reliever on the market and the Cardinals need to leverage his value in order to grab a massive prospect haul. St. Louis has a few options to replace the flame thrower at closer, but that shouldn't be their worries right now. They can go out in free agency and add one next year if they want. The bigger issue is getting as much value for Helsley as they possibly can.
INF Nolan Gorman
The first three players on this list were pretty simple. They were all expiring pitchers who seem quite unlikely to re-sign with the Cardinals for the future. The fact they're on expiring deals makes them obvious potential trade chips. But the last player on this list is a 25-year old who isn't arbitration eligible until next offseason and won't hit free agency until 2029.
Second baseman Nolan Gorman makes perfect sense as a trade piece right now.
For his career, Gorman has been a 3.4 WAR player who's flashed quite a lot of talent and potential. He's a good defender with a good bat and the ability to play multiple positions.
But the Cardinals have one of the better young second basemen in the game blocking Gorman from playing his natural position. Brendan Donovan has been more than serviceable for the Cardinals. St. Louis also has top prospect JJ Wetherholt banging on the door of the big leagues. Once Wetherholt is ready, Donovan will likely be pushed to the outfield.
This knocks Gorman down to third on the second base depth chart. He could even be forth if you consider Thomas Saggese, another top prospect who's hitting the cover off the ball.
All in all, it makes more sense to trade Gorman to an infield needy team (maybe the New York Yankees) than it does for the Cardinals to hold onto him.