MLB free agency is often when players, specifically star players, get overpaid. It happens every year, and this year will be no different.
Last year, we saw it with Juan Soto’s massive 13-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets. By saying he’s overpaid, I’m not saying he’s overrated. Soto is a tremendously talented player in the prime of his career and is bound for the Hall of Fame once he retires. But by all accounts, it was a bad baseball contract that is likely to age poorly.
But I won’t knock the deal because 1. I support players getting paid, and 2. Steve Cohen has the funds to do deals like that over and over and over again.
So what players could be candidates to get overpaid this winter? Let’s dive into free agency.
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Kyle Schwarber
I absolutely LOVE Kyle Schwarber. He is my favorite player in baseball not named Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge, and if I were running a team, I’d want him on my roster.
I know for a fact I’m not alone with that thinking.
Schwarber is going to have many teams in the running for his services this winter, with the Philadelphia Phillies surely going to attempt to re-sign the star slugger. The Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants and really any big market or midwest team (Schwarber grew up in the midwest) make sense when it comes to pursuing him.
Bidding wars often lead to crazy contracts. Entering the season, I thought a contract slightly north of Teoscar Hernandez’s three-year, $66 million deal made sense for Schwarber. Now, I’m expecting him to blow it out of the water — and with so many teams after him, it’s anyone’s guess how high the bidding goes.
Alex Bregman
I was really surprised how much the report took off that Bregman was set to opt out of his contract with the Boston Red Sox. Isn’t that obvious?
Bregman has had a great season in Boston. He’s loved by his teammates and by everyone within the organization. In 104 games, he’s hitting .278/.360/.475 with 17 home runs and 59 RBI. He’s going to have a TON of teams after him this winter, the Red Sox included, and I ultimately expect him to stay in Boston.
But a player of Bregman’s caliber and his performance in a big city is going to put increased eyeballs on him. Remember what Andrew Friedman once said about free agency: “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.”
That thinking feels applicable to Bregman. Because his price tag in free agency is likely going to get irrational, and his agent Scott Boras should be in position to capitalize.
Bo Bichette
It feels like Bichette has fallen under-the-radar nationally when it comes to free agency, with a lot of the conversation shifting toward Schwarber and Kyle Tucker.
But in a weak free-agent market, especially at shortstop, Bichette will be in position to earn a contract north of nine-figures.
I hesitated to put Bichette on this list because he’s worth every penny he’s about to get. Yes, I realize he struggled last year. But he’s been terrific in every season besides last year, with his career numbers being .294/.337/.469 with 111 home runs and 437 RBI. This season, he’s exceeding those numbers — .311/.357/.483 with 18 home runs and 94 RBI — and has quieted every concern about his down season in 2024.
And his eventual long-term contract will reflect that.
Ranger Suarez
What’s more valuable than a dominant left-handed starting pitcher?
Suarez has been (mostly) terrific in recent years with the Phillies. Last year, he started the season with a 2.76 ERA in the first half before trailing off in his final eight starts. He’s back on track this season, posting a 2.77 ERA in 23 starts with a 5 bWAR.
Philadelphia is going to have to make some very difficult decisions in free agency, with players such as Schwarber, JT Realmuto and Suarez among those on expiring contracts. They can’t keep everyone. The guess here is that Schwarber is the priority and at least two of the three players are extended the qualifying offer.
That shouldn’t limit Suarez’s market. Not in the slightest. And if the demand for pitching in recent seasons has been any indication, Suarez should have a hot market and land a very, very lucrative contract in free agency.