4 trade targets Cubs can pivot to after Seth Lugo extension

The Chicago Cubs hope to add a starting pitcher ahead of the trade deadline, and were linked to Kansas City Royals right-hander Seth Lugo on numerous occasions. Well, those rumors can officially be put to bed, as the veteran has reportedly inked a multi-year extension to remain in Kansas City, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.

Some Cubs fans might see this as unfortunate news, given Lugo has a sub-3.00 ERA on the year, but I'd argue that Lugo's advanced metrics suggest that regression could be coming sooner rather than later, and Kansas City handing him an extension is a bit risky.

With that being said, whether it would've been wise for the Cubs to have pursued Lugo or not is irrelevant now. He's off the market, and the Cubs will have to pivot elsewhere. Fortunately, the Cubs have several other options, headlined by these four starting pitchers.

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4) Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

Would the Pittsburgh Pirates actually be willing to trade Mitch Keller within the NL Central division to the Cubs? I'm not convinced, but if they are, the Cubs should be all over it.

Yes, it'd be costly, and that can be seen as concerning since Keller isn't an ace or anything more than a low-end No. 2 starter on a good team, but Keller would bring several years of control and durability. Keller has made 21 starts this season so far, and he's made at least 29 starts in each of the previous three years. Since the beginning of the 2022 campaign, Keller ranks ninth in the majors in starts (113) and 10th in innings pitched (656.1). That kind of reliability doesn't grow on trees, and the fact that Keller has an additional three years at pretty team-friendly terms makes him even more intriguing.

Keller hasn't quite put up ace-like numbers, but he's posted a 3.53 ERA in 125 innings this season, pitching as well as he ever has. He's allowed three earned runs or fewer in all but three of his outings, which, again, speaks to his consistency and reliability.

Again, I'm not sure whether the Pirates would actually be willing to trade Keller to their division rivals, but if they are, the Cubs should be very interested.

3) Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

All eyes in Arizona are on Zac Gallen, and understandably so, but Merrill Kelly should be the Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher that the Cubs target. Both Gallen and Kelly are on expiring contracts, but Gallen has been one of the worst pitchers in the sport while Kelly has been pitching as well as he has.

The right-hander has a 3.22 ERA in a league-leading 22 starts and 128.2 innings of work this season, and he's only been more effective as the year has progressed. Kelly allowed nine runs in just 3.2 innings of work in his second start of the season, but he has a 2.71 ERA in the 20 starts he's made since. If that one brutal start was taken out of the equation, his ERA would be well below 3.00, which is outstanding.

Kelly is one of the best arms available, and considering his age (36) and expiring contract status, it won't cost all that much to acquire him. Adding him to a rotation already consisting of Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd while saving high-end prospect capital for another big move sounds like a no-brainer.

2) Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins

Similarly to Kelly, Edward Cabrera has been outshone in trade talks by his Miami Marlins teammate, Sandy Alcantara. While Alcantara was once one of the best pitchers on the planet, he, like Gallen, has had a miserable 2024 campaign. With that in mind, the Cubs should turn their attention to Cabrera, a young right-hander who could be part of the equation long-term.

Cabrera has been inconsistent and pretty injury-prone throughout his MLB career, but he's been able to make 17 starts this season, and he's pitched as well as he ever has. The 27-year-old has a 3.48 ERA in 88 innings of work, and he has a 2.47 ERA since the start of May.

Cabrera has always had tremendous stuff, and he's finally locating it fairly well this season. The results have followed. It'd take a ton to pry him out of Miami, considering his three years of additional control, but the Cubs would benefit, adding him to their rotation long-term.

1) Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres

This would be something, wouldn't it? Dylan Cease began his career as a Cubs farmhand before getting traded to the Chicago White Sox in the deal that sent Jose Quintana to the North Side, so watching him get dealt back to the Cubs would be a great story. Prying him away from the San Diego Padres would be tough considering they're in the postseason hunt, but not impossible.

Cubs fans might not be interested in acquiring Cease because of his 4.59 ERA, but there's reason to believe a turnaround is imminent. The right-hander's 29.6 percent strikeout rate is as high as it's been since 2022, and his 8.6 percent walk rate is just 0.1 percent shy of tying a career best mark. The home runs are up, but he also has a .323 BAbip, well above the league average of around .300. Cease's xERA is at 3.48, over a full run lower than his actual ERA, per Baseball Savant. He's had a down year in some areas, but overall, Cease has been far better than his ERA would indicate.

What the Padres would want from the Cubs, considering they hope to make the playoffs, is unclear, but if there's a trade to be had that doesn't decimate the Cubs' farm system and doesn't lessen their chances of winning this season, Chicago should do it. Cease's upside is absurdly high, and he could be the difference in what the Cubs hope ends up being a run to the Fall Classic.