Remember the Ketel Marte trade rumors that Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hanzen effectively shut down? Well, there's some reason to think that they could start heating up again, specifically as it pertains to the Boston Red Sox. Many believed that the Red Sox could offer the most enticing package to Arizona in a trade for Marte when the rumors were at their apex after the Winter Meetings, and now Craig Breslow might be willing to actually offer what Hanzen and the D'Backs are looking for.
Make no mistake, it won't come cheap. Marte has established himself as arguably the best second baseman in baseball, and he has six years at just $19.4 million AAV remaining on his contract. However, in the wake of the Red Sox signing Ranger Suarez, MLB insider Bob Nightengale already threw out the possibility of reigniting trade talks with Arizona centered on Marte, and Red Sox insider Sean McAdam reported that the D'Backs have also been high on Jarren Duran. When you start to put the pieces together, there's a trade to be made where everyone walks away happy.
A Red Sox trade proposal for Ketel Marte that might move the D'Backs
Let's be clear here: The Red Sox may have to give up even more than this in terms of prospect capital. Marte is that good and that valuable. At the same time, this looks like where the framework would start for a trade that would actually make Hanzen and the Diamondbacks consider making the move, especially if the report that they love Duran is to be believed.
Duran is still under three years of club control in arbitration, and has produced 10.7 fWAR over the past two seasons. Still in his prime, he could be a massive upgrade to the Arizona outfield. As valuable as he is, though, Payton Tolle is the real prize of the trade. It was reported in the heat of the initial Marte trade rumors that the Diamondbacks coveted one of Boston's young lefties, either Tolle or Connelly Early. It's Tolle in this mock proposal, but I now believe the Red Sox are far more comfortable including either — and might even prefer Early, to some degree.
Beyond that, the Red Sox also send another arm in their 12th-ranked prospect by MLB Pipeline, Juan Valera. The hard-throwing right-hander is already touching triple digits in velocity at just 19 years old, and seemingly has unreal potential after being in Boston's system since 2023 as an international signing. He'd give the Diamondbacks another arm to dream on.
And, obviously, the Red Sox end up with Marte. Again, there could be more prospects involved in the deal, but this core of a trade ultimately adds up, and actually works out well for both teams.
Why the Red Sox need to make this trade
Not to keep it too simple, but if there's an obvious avenue to add a perennial All-Star second baseman, the Red Sox simply have to do it in most cases. At the same time, this aligns perfectly for Boston this offseason. In terms of Marte, after trading away Rafael Devers and then subsequently losing Alex Bregman in free agency, they have a hole at either second or third base to complete their infield if they truly want to be among the American League favorites. Adding Marte immediately puts them in that conversation.
Beyond that, though, the Suarez trade was crucial to put Boston in position to possibly fire up talks with the Diamondbacks once again. Prior to that five-year deal, the Red Sox were almost surely banking on one of Tolle or Early to be the No. 5 starter in the rotation. Thus, it stood to reason why Breslow wasn't keen on the notion of trading one away, even for Marte.
Now that Suarez is behind Garrett Crochet as the definitive No. 2 starter, though, the rotation depth in Boston is stupid good. Crochet, Suarez, Sonny Gray, Brayan Bello, Johan Oviedo, Tolle, Early, Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval, Kyle Harrison — and there are even a few more minor-league arms who could factor into the equation as well. They now have a surplus of starting pitching depth to deal from, which opens the door for Boston to give Arizona what they were looking for previously in a Marte trade.
The same is true with Duran and his position with the Red Sox. Clearing out the outfield logjam has been seemingly necessary since as long ago as last offseason. Because of the heights Duran has reached, he's long been the more likely trade candidate than Wilyer Abreu, while Roman Anthony is untouchable and Ceddanne Rafaela probably should be. But moving him gives Boston flexibility with the DH — which both Breslow and Alex Cora prefer — while trading him in this deal would also substantially upgrade a position of need.
When you think about an offensive core of Anthony, Marte, Willson Contreras, Trevor Story, and Abreu, that can compete with any team in the AL, especially with a top rotation behind them as well. If Breslow can convince Hanzen and Arizona to pick up the phone again, this is a no-brainer for the Red Sox with aspirations of building off of their postseason berth last year.
Why the Diamondbacks would make this trade
The fact that a Marte trade was ever on the table, whether it is or not now, is a curiosity in itself. It's not often you see a player who signed an extension just one year ago (a team-friendly deal, at that) then immediately get put on the trade block the following offseason. However, there were reports that the clubhouse was unhappy with Marte for taking time off and his lack of communication, among other things. It's not about trying to get rid of a great player. Rather, it was about trying to reset or help the culture in Arizona.
If there is any feeling of that, then this is about as good as the Diamondbacks are going to find. In terms of player value, Marte and Duran have actually been on par with one another over the past two seasons, with Marte at 10.9 fWAR to Duran's 10.7. More importantly, he would be an immediate upgrade over either Blaze Alexander or Alek Thomas in terms of immediate impact.
Of course, trading Marte would theoretically leave a hole at second base, but Arizona also made a move of its own recently in trading for Nolan Arenado. To be clear, that doesn't mean the same thing it would've three years ago — not even close. However, it would allow the D'Backs to essentially not have a gaping infield hole, moving Arenado to third base and then having some combination of top prospect Jordan Lawler and rising star Geraldo Perdomo at second base and shortstop if Marte were traded.
At least on paper, that could potentially give you the same offensive impact by upgrading the outfield and then shuffling around the pieces on the infield. But what sets this trade off for the Diamondbacks is the inclusion of either Tolle or Early on top of that.
With Corbin Burnes' return a bit up in the air following Tommy John surgery, the Arizona rotation is lacking. Merrill Kelly has returned, Ryne Nelson was quite good a year ago, and the club also signed Michael Soroka in free agency. But Soroka is anything but a sure thing, which is also true of Eduardo Rodriguez at this point of his career, and of Brandon Pfaadt with what he's done at the major-league level to this point.
Adding Early or Tolle to the rotation would be a substantial upgrade over the bottom-half of the current group. To that point, it might be why Arizona would prefer Early, as he's shown more in the majors over a small sample size. But regardless, it's an upgrade that needs to be made for an organization that wants to win to be able to do so.
Then, on top of that, the D'Backs can add more depth and quality to their farm system via such a deal, better helping set up their future. Someone like Valera would play a key role in that, especially with the current need for pitching, and other prospects from Boston could enter the fray as well.
It might be hard to believe that subtracting Marte from the Diamondbacks could overall end up making them better. However, in a trade that centers around Duran and Tolle/Early, there's a case to be made that they would actually be making their current roster better, both now and for years to come.