A week later, Isiah Kiner-Falefa can't escape his Game 7 mistake

Bases loaded, bottom of the ninth, one out, infield in. How big of a lead is worth taking, given the risk of a line drive double play? This is, surely, the situation Isiah Kiner-Falefa has replayed in his head time and time again since Game 7 of the World Series, which ended five days ago. As most of us know by now, Kiner-Falefa's rather casual and conservative lead off third base was not enough to help him score on a ground ball to Dodgers second baseman Miguel Rojas. While the Dodgers Game 7 hero did bobble the ball ever so slightly, he connected with catcher Will Smith in enough time to nab IKF at home by half a step – that same half step Kiner-Falefa could've collected on his initial lead, but chose not to.

The typical rule of thumb in Kiner Falefa's situation is simple. Max Muncy was several steps away from the bag and in on the grass. Because of this, Kiner-Falefa's lead should've matched that number of steps. Upon first look, IKF did not accomplish this feat, which is why he never had a chance to beat out Rojas's throw to begin with.

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An extra layer to Isiah Kiner-Falefa's costly Blue Jays out

Former Dodgers and Blue Jays player Justin Turner came to IKF's defense on Tuesday, saying that Kiner-Falefa played his lead by the book.

"The assumption is, with a force play at home, most likely if an infielder catches the ball, the runner will be out at home. Therefore, you shorten up and don’t increase the risk of being doubled up on a line drive," Turner wrote on X. "This gives another hitter a chance to come thru with the bases loaded and 2 outs. A line drive double play in that situation is 1000 times more of a momentum swing than a ground ball to the second baseman that results in a force out for the 2nd out of the inning."

What Turner did mention in the replies to his thread is that professional players are also preconditioned to slide in such a situation, which is why IKF did so despite the fact he could've reached home plate faster on his feet.

On Thursday, ESPN MLB Insider Jeff Passan also came to Kiner-Falefa's defense, saying that Blue Jays third base coach Carlos Febles directed IKF not to take a step closer to home plate just prior to Varsho's hard ground ball.

So, the only way Kiner-Falefa could have taken a lead to match Muncy's steps from the bag would've been to disregard his coach's instruction. As Passan said, coaches prefer baserunners to remain close to third base as to not risk getting doubled off, especially in Game 7 of the freaking World Series.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa will hear about his baserunning blunder for a lifetime

We can blame the player, the coaching staff or baseball fundamentals in general for Kiner-Falefa's pedestrian lead in a winner-take-all Game 7. The point remains that he will hear about it from Blue Jays fans for the rest of his playing career. Kiner-Falefa's was inserted into this game as a pinch runner. It was literally in his job description to use his legs to his advantage. The Blue Jays also forfeited Bo Bichette's bat to get IKF into the game. That could very well be the final at-bat for Bichette in a Jays uniform. He did his job by getting on-base. Kiner-Falefa, typically an aggressive baserunner, did not take advantage.

As Passan mentioned in his post above on X, there are so many decisions that went into this crucial moment, which could've ended Game 7 in a different fashion. While Kiner-Falefa's lead has received far more attention than any other decision, it seems a bit unfair to judge it more than, say, Varsho's inability to hit the ball in the air, or the third-base coach Febles asking IKF to remain close to the bag.

The blame game isn't always played on a level playing field.

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