As the New York Yankees get set to begin their Wild Card clash with the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday night in the Bronx, the stakes feel almost existential. Not just for the obvious, immediate reasons — any season that ends without a World Series title feels existential for this franchise, especially when it's been more than 15 years since the last one — but because of what a loss in this series would mean moving forward.
The 6-foot-7 elephant in the room is, of course, Aaron Judge. His regular-season accomplishments might at this point be somehow slightly underrated, but none of that is going to matter unless he can finally show up when the lights are brightest and the entire baseball world is watching. Flop again here, and even his most ardent defenders (I very much include myself here) will have a very hard time going to bat for him.
But Judge is hardly the only member of this current Yankees core that comes into October with something to prove. New York could hardly have asked for more in year one of Max Fried's mammoth eight-year contract: Despite the loss of Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery this spring and the pressure that comes with being the pivot from Juan Soto, Fried has been sensational, with a 2.86 ERA across 195.1 innings of work. No matter what he's given this team over the last few months, though, is just about to begin.
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Max Fried brings spotty postseason track record into Game 1 vs. Red Sox
Like Judge, Fried wouldn't seem on paper at least to have anything left to prove in his big-league career. Only once has he finished a full season with an ERA above 3.25, combining a deep arsenal with elite command to become one of the game's most reliable frontline starters.
That is, until the postseason begins. As Atlanta Braves fans will be all too happy to remind everyone, Fried's playoff resume leaves a whole lot to be desired: Since making his first October start back in 2020, he's pitched to a 4.90 ERA across 12 outings, including four in which he's allowed five earned runs or more.
He has had his moments. He was brilliant against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2020 NLCS, and he delivered arguably the start of his life in the clincher for Atlanta in Game 6 of the 2021 World Series against the Houston Astros. Again like Judge, we know he can succeed on this stage.
But overall, it's a pretty ugly body of work. And now Fried will bring that baggage with him into Game 1 on Tuesday night, faced with the task of matching Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet frame for frame — with the knowledge that the loser of this game will suddenly find itself just one more loss away from elimination. Fried has long been among the best pitchers in the sport. If he wants to fully be regarded as such, though, he's going to have to finally bust down the door.
Will this time finally be different for Yankees stars?
Which is true for this entire team, really. The simple reality is that the Yankees have forfeited the benefit of the doubt; that's what happens when you get embarrassed in the World Series, then follow it up the next year with several of the most Keystone Kops losses anyone has ever seen. You can point to the win-loss record all you want, to the consistent regular-season success that this franchise has had. At a certain point, though, it just fails to mean anything anymore if everyone thinks that it's going to end in a faceplant.
But the beauty of October is that it only takes one moment to rewrite your reputation. Alex Rodriguez was one of the sport's most notorious choke artists, until he wasn't. One big swing from Judge, one great start from Fried, and the script will have been flipped. It's not necessarily fair, but it is true — as a former New Yorker once again, that's what the money is for. And if Fried can't deliver on Tuesday night, expect all the good will he's built up this year to dissipate quickly as fans begin to wonder whether this collection of talent will ever be able to get over the hump.