Aaron Judge vs. Cal Raleigh: Where they rank in MLB’s closest MVP races ever

Hot Stove season is already well underway, but before we fully shift our focus to free agency, there's still one more bit of business to attend to from the 2025 season. The AL and NL MVP Awards will be handed out on Thursday evening, and while there isn't much suspense in the latter — where Shohei Ohtani figures to run away with a third straight win and his fourth in five years — the former figures to come right down to the wire.

All year long, baseball fans have been debating the merits of New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge and Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh. There's hardly anything separating the two: One had one of the greatest seasons by a right-handed hitter ever, and the other had arguably the greatest season by a catcher ever. And that all sets up what should be a very close vote, one that could be decided by the slimmest of margins.

But will the Judge-Raleigh race go down as the tightest in MLB MVP history? That's some pretty lofty competition.

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How does MLB MVP voting work?

The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) has been in charge of MVP voting since 1931. But they overhauled the voting system in 1938, instituting the same rules that are still in place today.

In all, 60 BBWAA members are tasked with MVP voting in a given year — 30 in each league, compromised of two members from each city. Members rank their choices one through 10, with a point value being assigned to each spot: 14 points for first place, nine for second, eight for third, seven for fourth, six for fifth, five for sixth, four for seventh, three for eighth, two for ninth and one for 10th. After all ballots have been submitted, the point totals are tallied to determine a winner.

Since scoring changed dramatically in 1938, that's where we've decided to draw the line while assembling the list below.

The closest MVP races in MLB history

1979 NL MVP (tie)

Winners: Keith Hernandez, Willie Stargell (216 points)

I still have a hard time making heads or tails of this result. Hernandez was the better player by just about every offensive metric, besting Stargell in OPS by nearly 30 points. Heck, bWAR had him nearly five wins better than the Pirates legend, who was well on the downside of his Hall of Fame career at age 39.

So how did we wind up with a tie? Stargell received a whopping 10 first-place votes, more than Hernandez and third-place Dave Winfield combined. But he was also completely left off of four ballots, while Hernandez was the only player included on every single one. The next time you want to complain about the state of statistical literacy in baseball, crack open a history book.

1947 AL MVP (one point)

Winner: Joe DiMaggio (202 points)
Runner up: Ted Williams (201 points)

DiMaggio and Williams may have had the greatest player rivalry in the game's history, and it culminated with an MVP race for the ages in 1947. And we have to say, the Splendid Splinter got well and truly robbed here.

Williams won the Triple Crown for the second time in six years, leading the AL in batting average (.343) homers (32) and RBI (114) while putting up a historically great 205 OPS+. DiMaggio, on the other hand, was good but not great by his otherworldly standard, trailing Williams by over 100 points of OPS and getting doubled up in bWAR (9.5 to 4.7).

But Williams had just won AL MVP honors in 1946, while DiMaggio's Yankees finished 14 games above the Red Sox in the standings en route to a World Series title. That, apparently, was enough for the voters to give this one to the Yankee Clipper.

2017 NL MVP (two points)

Winner: Giancarlo Stanton (302 points)
Runner up: Joey Votto (300 points)

This felt like a watershed moment of sorts, an all-timer of an MVP race waged between two players whose teams were well out of postseason contention down the stretch. Not that either Stanton or Votto could be blamed: They were far and away the two best hitters in the National League that year, the former slugging .631 while the latter posted a league-high 1.032 OPS.

It really just came down to what you valued more as a voter. The overwhelming power of Stanton, who captivated baseball with his quest to join the 60-homer club? Or the quiet, all-around greatness of Votto, MLB's on-base king who turned back the clock for a vintage season in which he was nearly impossible to get out? In the end, Stanton had history (and a narrow edge in bWAR) on his side, and that made all the difference.

1960 and 1961 AL MVP

Winner: Roger Maris (225 points in 1960, 202 points in 1961)
Runner up: Mickey Mantle (222 points in 1960, 198 points in 1961)

Yes, you are reading that correctly: In consecutive seasons, Maris and Mantle finished 1-2 in AL MVP voting by the thinnest of margins.

1960 was Maris' first with the Yankees after coming to New York in an offseason trade, and he was a revelation, leading the leading in RBI (112) and slugging (.581) while finishing just one homer behind Mantle (40 to 39). Mantle had narrow edge in OPS, but he also had already won two AL MVPs in the 1950s, while Maris came out of nowhere with a breakout season. Mantle received more first-place votes than Maris, but the down-ballot support was enough to push him over the line.

In 1961, however, there was no question who the better player was. Mantle authored a vintage campaign, leading the AL in slugging and walks while putting up a 1.135 OPS and 10.5 bWAR — compared to just 6.5 for Maris. Of course, while Maris may not have had the edge overall, he did best Mantle in the iconic race toward Babe Ruth's single-season homer record.

1996 AL MVP

Winner: Juan Gonzalez (290 points)
Runner up: Alex Rodriguez (287 points)

Some vote-splitting may have cost A-Rod the win here. The 20-year-old phenom was the clearly superior player, besting Gonzalez in OPS (1.045 to 1.011) and routing him in bWAR (9.4 to 3.8) thanks to his excellent defense at shortstop. Unfortunately, Rodriguez shared a lineup with another MVP candidate that year: Ken Griffey Jr., who hit 49 homers for Seattle in 1996.

Rodriguez managed 10 first-place votes to Gonzalez's 11, but Griffey stole four more to spoil his teammate's MVP hopes. (The fact that Gonzalez's Rangers beat out the Mariners in the AL West didn't hurt either.)

Where will Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh rank among the tightest MVP votes ever?

We'll find out soon enough, but all signs are pointing to yes. In a way, this feels somewhat similar to the Stanton-Votto debate back in 2017 — both Judge and Raleigh have had historic seasons well worthy of winning MVP, and whichever player you choose likely comes down to how you define "most valuable" and what you're looking for out of this award.

The statistical case would likely go to Judge. He leads Raleigh by a significant margin in just about every offensive category other than homers and RBI, including a massive 46-point edge in OPS+ and 43-point edge in wRC+. He was the substantially more productive offensive player, and while Raleigh makes up much of that gap by virtue of his very good defense behind the plate, it's probably not quite enough: FanGraphs' WAR calculation has Judge leading Raleigh, 10.1 to 9.1.

Of course, if MVP voting were as simple as reading a WAR leaderboard, we'd all get bored pretty quickly. Raleigh was the story of the season, becoming the first catcher and switch-hitter to reach the 60-homer plateau while serving as the engine for a Mariners team that won its division for the first time in 24 years. In terms of what we'll remember most 10 years now, he'd likely get the nod, and there is something to be said for the difficulty of producing like he did as a hitter while spending so much time enduring the wear-and-tear of catching (not to mention all that time spent working with your pitching staff rather than working on your swing).

In the end, it feels like a true toss-up, one with no wrong answers. The only thing we know for sure? One way or the other, baseball history is about to be written.

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