We've now reached the final month of the 2025 regular season, and the MLB playoff picture is still as wide-open as its been in recent memory. Seriously: No team is currently on pace to win 100 games; the closest are the Milwaukee Brewers, on pace for 99, and they're five games clear of MLB's best record entering play on Wednesday.
There are a lot of good teams, but there don't appear to be any great ones. That might be bad news for sportswriters, but it's great news for long shots looking to sneak their way into the postseason and then go on a Cinderella run to the World Series. There are no juggernauts in this field; every team can be beaten, everyone has a weakness to be exploited.
So, amid unprecedented chaos, which dark horses might emerge in October? We've broken down six long shots below, all of whom figure to make the playoffs but all of whom are at least +1200 odds to win it all according to ESPN BET. What needs to go right for them to take home the commissioner's trophy?
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San Diego Padres
World Series odds: +1200
First thing's first: Hold on to the No. 5 seed in the NL, because the last thing this team wants is to have to travel to L.A. on quick turnaround for a three-game set with the hated Dodgers. Sure, the Padres would never admit that, but there's a reason they're just 4-9 against Los Angeles this season — the Dodgers have the depth to wear San Diego out, and the two teams know each other like the backs of their hands at this point.
A matchup with the Chicago Cubs would be a bit more palatable, and present more openings to exploit. From there, the formula is simple: Get just enough from a sketchy starting rotation (Dylan Cease reverting to form would certainly help), then protect the lead with an army of high-leverage bullpen arms. Of course, you need to score to get a lead to protect, and it's hard to see San Diego going much of anywhere unless Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts get back on track at the plate. The outline is here, but it's getting fuzzier by the day.
Chicago Cubs
World Series odds: +1400
The Cubs' pitching staff is what it is at this point; Jed Hoyer had the chance to address it with a big swing at the trade deadline and passed, and now his team is left to rely on Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Jameson Taillon and a bullpen assembled largely of spare parts.
Maybe Boyd, Horton and Taillon shove in October. More realistically, though, Chicago is going to have to slug its way back to the World Series, and that starts with the two biggest names in the lineup: Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker. If those two are rolling, along with Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Michael Busch and Dansby Swanson, the Cubs can go toe-to-toe with anyone. But that offense has been maddeningly inconsistent in the second half, and there isn't a ton of margin for error here.
New York Mets
World Series odds: +1400
Speaking of maddeningly inconsistent: Will the real New York Mets please stand up? On paper, this sure looks like a World Series contender. And New York has been able to beat some of the best teams in baseball of late. The problem is that they've also lost to some of the worst, leaving everyone to wonder what this team's ceiling really is.
You have to bet on Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso performing in October. From there, I have two questions: Are the young guys, like Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong, ready to carry this starting rotation? And do the Mets have enough in the bullpen to hand the baton to Edwin Diaz at the end of games? The answer could very well be yes to both of those questions (although I'm more optimistic about the first, especially as Ryan Helsley continues to implode). If it is, we know this team is capable of winning it all, especially if some of the secondary pieces on offense start to click.
Seattle Mariners
World Series odds: +1400
It feels weird to be concerned about Seattle's starting pitching, but ... well, one of the best rotations in baseball for years now has been decidedly ordinary of late. Luis Castillo is aging in real time, Bryce Miller hasn't been the same since returning from the IL and George Kirby and Logan Gilbert aren't pitching like the aces we've come to know.
If those guys are pitching to the backs of their baseball cards behind Bryan Woo, then there's no reason why the Mariners can't storm through the AL playoffs. We need to actually see that at some point to believe it, though, especially given the unevenness of this offense even after the acquisitions of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez.
Boston Red Sox
World Series odds: +1500
Roman Anthony's oblique injury casts a pall over the rest of Boston's season, as they'll now be without arguably their best hitter (as wild as that is to say about a rookie) for the next 4-6 weeks. And even if he's able to return by the start of the playoffs, who knows how long it'll take him to knock off the rust?
Even beyond the status of Anthony (and Wilyer Abreu), though, there are questions about this lineup, especially in the bottom half. The good news is that the Red Sox will take a dynamic starting trio into October in Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito, plus a bullpen that now finally has enough options to support Aroldis Chapman in the ninth. There's enough pitching firepower here to believe in Boston making a run. Then again, they might have to tote more than their share of the mail unless guys like Nathaniel Lowe, Masataka Yoshida, Ceddanne Rafaela and Carlos Narvaez play big.
Houston Astros
World Series odds: +1500
Where have the stars gone? Pick a member of the Houston Astros core, and odds are they've been struggling of late, from Jose Altuve to Carlos Correa to Jeremy Pena to Yordan Alvarez to Framber Valdez to Cristian Javier. The rotation has been devastated by injuries, with Javier and Spencer Arrighetti still working their way back and Lance McCullers Jr. looking like a shell of his former self. But frankly, I'm more concerned about the offense, which is tied for the fourth-lowest OPS in baseball in the second half. That's just not tenable, not with how many pitchers the Astros have lost to the IL this year. And it's going to be up to old hands like Altuve, Correa and Co. to get things back on track.