Aggressive baserunning isn't the reason the Blue Jays lost Game 3

The Toronto Blue Jays lost Game 3 of the World Series last night. Either you know this because you read about it when you started your Tuesday at a normal hour, or because you were one of the true sickos that stayed up through Monday night and into the wee hours of Tuesday morning. In the latter case, you can read this when you wake up just before dinner.

The Blue Jays had chances all night to take a 2-1 series lead; their bullpen held the Los Angeles Dodgers scoreless for 10 full innings before finally giving up the game-winning homer to October legend Freddie Freeman in the bottom of the 18th. And as is so often the case when a team squanders those chances, fingers get pointed in the immediate aftermath.

Many fans are ascribing the bulk of the blame to two outs the Jays made on the bases: one in the 9th inning, in which Isiah Kiner-Falefa was gunned out at third by Tommy Edman after trying to advance from first on a line drive single that went off Freeman's glove and into shallow right field; and one an inning later, in which Edman hosed Davis Schneider on a relay to home from Teoscar Hernandez after third-base coach Carlos Febles decided to send him with two outs.

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The Blue Jays didn't lose Game 3 because of their baserunning

Let's break down both plays to see just whether the Blue Jays made a mistake. On the first, Kiner-Falefa was out by an eyelash at third, and it took a wizardly play by Edman to get him. IKF had to hesitate slightly when Daulton Varsho's liner went off Freeman's glove, because if Freeman had managed to hold on it almost certainly would have been an easy double-up at first. That cost him couple steps, so the argument could be made that because of that, he should have held at second.

If you get thrown out on the bases, you want the reward to be worth the risk, and in this case it was. If IKF was safe, he would have been at third with one out, meaning he could have scored the go-ahead run in any number of ways: a hit, a wild pitch or passed ball, a slow grounder or a sac fly. If he stayed at second, Toronto would have needed a hit to get him home. L.A. walked Alejandro Kirk after IKF was thrown out to move Varsho into scoring position, so they almost certainly would have done the same to load the bases if IKF had been safe. In that scenario, though, Myles Straw would have had the bases juiced with one out instead of having first and second with two outs.

Straw is hitless since the final game of the Yankees series, so it was unlikely he was going to come through in this spot. He had only struck out three times in the 10 at-bats since then, though, so the odds were good that he could at least put the ball in play and score the run with less than two outs. Edman made an unbelievable play to get this out, and in the end, he deserves credit much more than the Jays deserve blame. Going for it was the right play percentage-wise, it just didn't work out. Sometimes you just have to tip your cap.

Schneider getting thrown out at home in the 10th has generated even more debate than the previous play, but this is another case in which the percentages made sense for the Jays, even if the play ended up not being very close.

The Dodgers were masterful in the field again on this one, as Hernandez hit his cutoff man perfectly, then Edman fired another dart to a perfectly positioned Will Smith at home. Much of the consternation over Febles sending the runner is centered around the fact that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was in the on-deck circle. Vladdy has been scorching hot this postseason, but the Dodgers were never pitching to him in this spot when they could intentionally walk him and face Kiner-Falefa instead.

IKF is hitting .172 in these playoffs after going 0-for-4 last night, so again, was the risk worth the reward? Schneider would have to be safe just one in five times to make this the right call, and even if you wanted to use IKF's regular-season on-base percentage — since a walk would have also scored a run — that still puts you at .297. Would Schneider have been safe three times out of 10 to justify the send? I think people are underestimating how difficult it is to make two perfect throws. Hernandez was moving to his left when he fielded this ball on the warning track and uncorked it, and Edman then had to turn and fire it on the money from the outfield grass.

Let's also not forget this play that gave Toronto a 5-4 lead in the 7th. A better throw from Hernandez would have gotten Guerrero at home, but that's why you send the runner when given the chance. Perfect throws are hard to make.

Being aggressive on the bases gave the Blue Jays their best chance at victory

Once this game got to extra innings, the Blue Jays' lineup looked very different than it did to start the game. George Springer left the game in the 7th with a strained oblique. Bo Bichette had been taken out for a pinch runner later that inning. Addison Barger, who hit the first-ever pinch hit grand slam in World Series history in Game 1, and Ty France, who had come in for Springer and later singled in the 10th, were also taken out for pinch runners. So was Alejandro Kirk in the 12th.

Manager John Schneider kneecapped his lineup by continually pinch running for his best hitters. On the one hand, it's tough to fault him because he was being aggressive and trying to increase his immediate chances of winning, just like his team did with these baserunning plays. On the other, Guerrero Jr. and Varsho were the only guys the Dodgers really had to worry about beating them in extras. The longer the game went on, the more inevitable it became that Dave Roberts' All-Star-laden lineup would come through first, and that's what finally happened.

The Blue Jays can't wallow in this loss, otherwise the Dodgers will steamroll them in these next two games. Ohtani takes the mound tonight in an attempt to add to his ever-growing legend, and for Toronto to have a shot, they're going to need to keep being aggressive, even if it doesn't always work.