Ever since Opening Day, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge has been seen as the clear favorite to win his third AL MVP award in the last four years. Seattle Mariners star catcher Cal Raleigh might not be fully caught up to Judge in the rankings, but he's doing his best to make the race interesting.
CAL RALEIGH.
— MLB (@MLB) June 24, 2025
32 HOME RUNS. pic.twitter.com/AtcUdgGuwx
Raleigh homered for the fourth straight game on Monday, giving him six home runs in his last six games overall and a MLB-leading 32 home runs on the season. Raleigh being on pace for well over 60 home runs while being elite defensively at the most demanding position in the game (on a Mariners team that plays at the most pitcher-friendly park in the sport) has him squarely among the most valuable players in the league this season.
But while Raleigh's season is certainly MVP-worthy, a look at the FanGraphs WAR (fWAR) leaderboard shows that he still has work to do to catch up to or pass Judge.
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One look at fWAR rankings shows Cal Raleigh trails Aaron Judge in MVP race
Here's a look at the American League leaders in fWAR entering play on Tuesday.
Rank | Player | Team | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Aaron Judge | New York Yankees | 6.1 |
2 | Cal Raleigh | Seattle Mariners | 5.3 |
T3 | Jeremy Pena | Houston Astros | 3.9 |
T3 | Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | 3.9 |
5 | Jose Ramirez | Cleveland Guardians | 3.3 |
T6 | Jacob Wilson | Athletics | 3.1 |
T6 | Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | 3.1 |
8 | Alejandro Kirk | Toronto Blue Jays | 2.7 |
T9 | Isaac Paredes | Houston Astros | 2.6 |
T9 | Julio Rodriguez | Seattle Mariners | 2.6 |
T9 | Riley Greene | Detroit Tigers | 2.6 |
As you can see, it isn't particularly close. Yes, Raleigh has been far and away the second-most valuable player in the American League, amassing nearly 1.5 fWAR more than Jeremy Pena and Bobby Witt Jr., who are tied for third in the metric, but he's almost 1.0 full fWAR behind Judge.
Elite two-way shortstops like Pena and Witt will always lurk in the shadows, and you can never count Jose Ramirez out of an MVP race, but right now, it looks like a two-horse race with one clear leader.
Raleigh's ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark at the rate he has while playing absurd defense at such a valuable position has made him incredibly valuable, but it's easy to forget that just a couple of weeks ago, MLB fans were wondering whether Judge was going to hit .400 while also socking 60 home runs. Judge is playing excellent defense in right field as well, and his ridiculous season shows itself in the fWAR rankings.
With that being said, a look at the combined fWAR leaders shows that Raleigh might be the second-most valuable player in the game right now.
Full fWAR rankings show how valuable Cal Raleigh truly is
Rank | Player | Team | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Aaron Judge | New York Yankees | 6.1 |
2 | Cal Raleigh | Seattle Mariners | 5.3 |
3 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chicago Cubs | 4.0 |
T4 | Jeremy Pena | Houston Astros | 3.9 |
T4 | Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | 3.9 |
6 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | 3.8 |
T7 | Corbin Carroll | Arizona Diamondbacks | 3.5 |
T7 | James Wood | Washington Nationals | 3.5 |
9 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | 3.4 |
T10 | Jose Ramirez | Cleveland Guardians | 3.3 |
T10 | Trea Turner | Philadelphia Phillies | 3.3 |
Including the National League doesn't change much, which shows just how dominant Raleigh and Judge have been. Even while including guys like Pete Crow-Armstrong, Shohei Ohtani and Corbin Carroll, Raleigh has nearly 1.5 more fWAR than the third-ranked player. He's nearly at 5.5 fWAR while only one player in the National League had 4.0 fWAR.
Had Raleigh been in the National League, he'd be the clear favorite to win the MVP Award. The unfortunate reality is that he has the task of beating out arguably the greatest right-handed hitter ever in the midst of another career year. Doing so is easier said than done, but it isn't impossible.
While trailing, Cal Raleigh has a shot to win the AL MVP award
Raleigh trailing in the AL MVP race says a lot more about the year Judge is having than Raleigh being undeserving. Judge leads the Majors in just about every major statistical category (including fWAR by a wide margin) other than home runs. He's slumped for a couple of weeks, but again, there was a legitimate debate not too long ago as to whether Judge was going to hit .400 with historically great power. He was on pace for one of the greatest seasons ever. Even now, Judge is hitting just a shade below .370 with the second-most home runs in the sport.
Judge is the clear favorite, but Raleigh is not out of it. Raleigh's case is quite simple. He's putting up historic power numbers, especially for a catcher; he's elite defensively at a premium position; and he's producing despite playing in the most pitcher-friendly park in the game. If this continues, he's going to put up one of if not the best season a catcher has ever had. It's really hard not to give the MVP award to a guy who puts up a historically great campaign.
Judge continuing to struggle while Raleigh continues to hit his stride could make this really interesting. How the race unfolds will be one of the most-watched storylines of the summer.