With just two weeks left in the 2025 regular season, we're a little bit light on divisional drama right now. Sure, things aren't completely sewn up; maybe the Yankees could come back and steal the AL East, or maybe the Padres snatch the NL West from the rival Dodgers. But for the most part, we're lacking real September juice.
Except for the AL West, that is, where the Astros and Mariners entered play on Saturday dead even atop the standings at 80-68. Houston has been stumbling of late amid a slew of pitching injuries and a moribund offense. Seattle, meanwhile, has caught fire after an uneven few weeks, winning their last seven games in a row. Now there's everything to play for, and to make things even more intriguing, the loser of this race isn't guaranteed of a Wild Card spot in the slightest.
So: Who ya got? Which team will take the division, and which will come up empty in two weeks' time? We decided to answer that question by breaking things down unit by unit, tale of the tape style, to get a sense of which team we like more moving forward.
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The rotation
On first blush, this would appear to not even be a contest. The Astros have had to weather an almost comical litany of pitching injuries this season, particularly to the starting rotation. You could form a pretty good rotation just from Houston's IL situation right now, one that includes Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, Luis Garcia, Brandon Walter and more, while JP France has yet to appear in the Majors this season. Seattle, meanwhile, goes five strong with Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo and Bryce Miller.
And yet, it's actually the Astros who have the better starter's ERA since the beginning of August, sitting at 3.98 (13th in baseball) while Seattle is at 4.52 (17th). Some of that has to do with underachievement in Seattle, particularly from Castillo, while Miller is still rounding into form after returning from injury and Kirby has suffered from a couple very ugly blowups of late. But there is also some luck involved here, as both expected ERA and FIP favor the Mariners.
All of which is why I'm still giving the edge to Seattle. Hunter Brown is a stalwart for Houston, and Jason Alexander (no, not Costanza) has been a godsend, but Framber Valdez's recent shakiness just underlines how fragile this all feels right now. I still believe in Castillo, and I think Miller will only get better as he knocks the rust off. Woo is a stud, and Gilbert and Kirby should be better than they have been moving forward.
Edge: Mariners
The bullpen
For the year, these have both been top-10 units. But once again, the Astros are running on fumes, with Josh Hader on the shelf after suffering a shoulder injury that might cost him the rest of the season.
In his absence, things have gotten ... predictably dicey: Houston ranks just 22nd in bullpen ERA since the start of August, and the underlying metrics really aren't that much better. This team was already short on reliable options behind Hader, and even more concerningly, the extra strain seems to be taking its toll on star setup man Bryan Abreu, who's allowed multiple runs in three of his last five outings.
Seattle isn't without worry here. But man, it sure helps to have your star closer healthy, and Andres Munoz has been lights out as usual. With Gabe Speier behind him and Eduard Bazardo emerging, this is a solid unit, even if it's not elite. And there are simply more options you trust in high-leverage spots.
Edge: Mariners
The lineup
When Seattle went big at the deadline to add Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor to its infield, it was easy to imagine the offense hitting the ground running and immediately blossoming into one of the best in the AL. But the transition wasn't quite so smooth, as Suarez started his Mariners reunion mired in a miserable slump while Cal Raleigh went from MVP candidate to, well, the sort of player he'd been in his career up to this point.
Raleigh still isn't hitting quite the way he was in the first half of the year (although that's a very, very high bar), but the rest of this lineup is starting to look the way Jerry Dipoto envisioned it would. Seattle's 120 wRC+ in the month of September ranks fifth in baseball, as Suarez has rediscovered his power stroke and Julio Rodriguez is once again authoring a stellar second half. Again, the Mariners will never be confused for the best offense in baseball. But if this is the Julio we get moving forward, and he gets enough help from Suarez, Raleigh, Naylor and Randy Arozarena, there aren't a ton of glaring weaknesses for opponents to attack.
The same simply cannot be said for Houston, despite the fact that Yordan Alvarez is back and desperate to make up the time he missed on the IL. Houston is 21st in baseball in wRC+ since the start of August, 15th since the start of September, and the team's well-documented struggles against right-handed pitching continue to persist. Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Christian Walker all have the track records to believe in a turnaround; then again, if you find yourself hanging your hopes on a group of guys in their mid-30s ... that's not a great spot to be in.
Edge: Mariners
Defense
I promise it's not all bad news, Astros fans. Houston ranks third in Outs Above Average on the year, where as the Mariners are way down in 28th. And Seattle's offensive upgrades have come at the (relative) expense of their team defense. Julio is a plus in center field, and Raleigh is sturdy behind the plate, but that's ... pretty much it, especially with JP Crawford suffering through an uncharacteristically down season at shortstop.
Edge: Astros
Remaining schedule
This one is pretty close. The Astros have two more in their series against the Braves, then it's a huge six-game homestand against the Rangers and Mariners before a season-ending road trip that takes them to Sacramento to face the A's and Los Angeles to face the Angels. Seattle, meanwhile, has two more at home against the Halos before a road trip to Kansas City and Houston and then a season-ending homestand against the Rockies and the Dodgers.
Really, it's that last series that might tip the scales here ever so slightly. Both have an AL Wild Card contender (Texas and Kansas City), and both have at least one gimme left (Colorado and the Angels). The fact that Seattle has to go to Houston, however, and the fact that they'll face a Dodgers team likely desperate to sew up the NL West on the season's final weekend, has me taking the Astros here.
Edge: Astros, ever so slightly