After a slow start to the season, the Houston Astros are cruising. With a six-game lead in the AL West and a burgeoning star in shortstop Jeremy Peña, it's starting to feel like the Astros are all the way back in the AL driver's seat.
Peña has been a revelation, currently third in the American League in WAR (4.0), trailing only MVP frontrunners Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh. He's a five-tool star just scratching the surface of his prime at 27 years old. While not all the underlying metrics are great, it's impossible to argue with the results: Peña has a .325 average and .875 OPS with 11 home runs, 40 RBI and 15 stolen bases, along with 89th percentile defensive range at a premium position.
So good has Peña been that the Astros are starting to think about the future. Houston reportedly engaged with Peña on a potential contract extension worth $105 million over five years, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Unfortunately for Astros fans, those negotiations hit a wall when Peña switched agents, hiring the infamous Scott Boras to handle his affairs moving forward.
Boras clients historically don't sign extensions before testing the market in free agency. We can easily assume the market for Peña would be quite competitive. So why is this happening? Who is to blame? Well, it might just be a former Astros fan favorite.
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Carlos Correa's influence looms over Jeremy Peña contract talks with Astros
Peña spent his time this past offseason working out with former Astros shortstop and current Minnesota Twins star Carlos Correa. That is a great source of wisdom and pro tips, but it sounds like Correa — a fellow Scott Boras client who infamously left Houston for a huge payday in Minnesota — was in Peña's ear about his looming spike in value.
"I told him, ‘This year, you’re going to make the All-Star team and your career is going to take off from here," Correa said, per The Athletic.
It sounds like Peña's current teammate, Mauricio Dubón, is also gassing up Peña's market.
"He’s a $300 million player,” Dubón said. “He’s been showing it. And he’s always had this. The problem is it never clicked."
Well, it has clicked now, and something once thought impossible — like a $300 million contract — doesn't feel so far fetched. At the very least, Peña can probably bet on a more substantial contract than Houston's current offer of $105 million, assuming his current production holds.
Assumptions are a dangerous game in MLB, of course, and Peña's lackluster batted-ball metrics could give him reason to reconsider tabling extension talks. But with his star rising and the Astros winning at a high clip, Peña holds all the leverage. He's emerging as the face of Houston's next generation — the young star this roster has so desperately lacked in recent years. With that comes the ability to strong-arm the front office and really drive up the price.
If the Astros can't get Peña locked up before his contract expires in 2027, it would qualify as a major setback. Nothing is worse than losing a franchise cornerstone to a rival in free agency, like the Astros once did with Peña's mentor and workout buddy, Correa.