The Houston Astros went against the grain with their first-round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. Traditionally, the Astros have had a knack for selecting position players out of college. They still took a position player at No. 21 overall, but Xavier Neyens was taken out of Mount Vernon High School in Washington. He's the first high school infielder the Astros have drafted since Carlos Correa back in 2012, and he's the first high school player the Astros have drafted since Forrest Whitley in 2016. While it's a bit exciting to see the Astros go against the grain, there's a bit to be concerned about with Neyens' scouting report from MLB Pipeline.
"There was some concern about the increase in his swing-and-miss rate as the summer progressed, though some scouts who know him well think he was gassed after playing what one evaluator estimated was well over 100 games during the summer. Those concerns resurfaced with some lackluster showings at the plate this spring at times."
The concerns with Neyens all stem from his ability, or lack thereof, to make consistent contact.
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Xavier Neyens is far from a can't miss prospect
There's a lot to like about Neyens. He already has outstanding power to all fields from the left side, and he's got a rocket of an arm at the hot corner. The concern with his game is glaring, though, as his hit tool leaves a lot to be desired.
Players can succeed even with a lot of swing and miss in their game, but doing so is easier said than done. The power is exciting, but if he can't make enough contact, somewhat like Chris Carter back in the day, it's hard to justify handing him an everyday role, especially when he doesn't offer much value on the base paths and doesn't profile as a stellar defender either.
Astros desperately need Xavier Neyens to pan out
Neyens has a lot to prove when it comes to his hit tool, making it far from a certainty that he'll become a key piece of Houston's future. With that being said, the Astros need Neyens to develop well.
The Astros picked late in the first round and didn't have a second-round pick. They didn't have many picks, and they didn't have much money to spend either. Given those factors, virtually their entire draft is centered around Neyens, a player with a lot of potential, but also real concerns.
The Astros have a great history when it comes to player development, so there's little reason to doubt their ability to get the most out of Neyens. Brice Matthews is another recent Astros first-round pick who has a ton of upside but a lot of swing-and-miss in his game. He just made his MLB debut the weekend before the All-Star Game. How he performs in the majors remains to be seen, but the fact that he got there should give Astros fans hope when it comes to Neyens' future.
Whether the risk/reward with Neyens proves to be worthwhile could determine how successful the 2025 MLB Draft was for the