The American League Wild Card race is quite literally neck and neck (and neck) as of right now, with the Yankees, Red Sox and Mariners all tied for the three spots and the Cleveland Guardians (and Kansas City Royals, hey!) still very much in contention as well.
As we approach the final month of the baseball season, we must look at the best — and worst — outcomes for the five teams clawing for a postseason berth.
It's time to stop panicking over the New York Yankees
Best case: Ace Max Fried starts pitching like himself, Aaron Judge starts mashing home runs again and the Yankees make a furious run in the last month to overtake Toronto and win the AL East. I know that Yankees fans wanted to convince themselves that this team is horrible a few weeks ago, but I don't buy it at all. This team remains a tank and is more likely to win it all than to fall out of a playoff spot.
Worst cast: The Yankees finish the season on a mediocre note, while the Red Sox and Mariners look strong down the homestretch and the Yankees finish in the No. 3 Wild Card spot. This team isn't missing the playoffs.
It might be time to start panicking over the Seattle Mariners
Best case: Bryce Miller quickly reacclimates after coming off the IL, Eugenio Suárez remembers how to hit and the Mariners get back on track after a brief lull to capture the top Wild Card spot. They may be more talented than the Astros, but I just don't see the Astros relinquishing their AL West lead because... that's not historically how these things have gone. Still, the top WC spot is a pretty good "best case" for a team that has made the playoffs once since 2001.
Worst case: The rotation continues to get lit up, the offense reverts to the form it was in last season and the Mariners' potential dream season turns into a nightmare as they miss the postseason entirely. I am slightly biased on this topic, and I've been hardened by 20 years of pain, if you can't tell, and the past week, when the Mariners have gone 1-4, has been a little nerve-inducing.
Red Sox seem like the most steady team of the bunch
Best case: The Duran-issance continues, Roman Anthony just keeps getting better and the Sox remove any questions about them being a contender in the AL as they secure a Wild Card spot with a few weeks remaining in the season.
Worst case: The Yankees and Mariners both feel a little volatile, while the Red Sox feel like a safer, more reliable group. That's not based on any hard data, to be fair, I just trust this team to be at least pretty good most nights. Their ceiling might not be as high, but I don't think their floor is as low, either. Worst-case scenario would be this team middling around enough to let the Guardians or Royals to make things a little iffy in September.
Guardians have clawed their way back into playoff race
Best case: It didn't all happen at once for the Guards. Getting back into the WC race was a slow burn. That changes heading into September as the team gets scorching hot, the rotation finds some consistency and the wins pile up while the Mariners freefall out of playoff contention, leading the Guards to a miracle playoff spot.
Worst case: The trend of "two steps forward, one step back" continues for the Guards and they simply run out of time to make a postseason push. The decision to hold at the trade deadline doesn't age well and the team heads into the offseason with more questions than answers.
Royals need to win the winnable gamers
Best case: Unlike the Guardians, it has all happened at once for the Royals; they're 6-2 in their last 8 games and have won four straight, finally bouncing back above .500 for the first time since June on Saturday. With series' remaining against the Angels (twice) the A's, the Twins and the White Sox, there are lots of winnable games remaining. Plus, they play the Guardians and Mariners, so two huge chances to leapfrog teams just ahead of them in this race. Best case scenario here is the Royals take care of business versus the bad teams, win the series' against the Mariners and Guards, and barge into the postseason as a talented late-riser.
Worst case: Right as the momentum gets going, they falter against the Rangers and Tigers and shoot themselves in the foot falling 5-plus games out of playoff contention once more and not even giving themselves a shot to make a run.