The Los Angeles Dodgers are a game away from seeing their dreams of back-to-back championships go up in smoke. This World Series has defied expectations as they've failed to distance themselves from the Blue Jays, and now the series shifts back to Toronto for the deciding game(s).
When Freddie Freeman clinched a Game 3 win for L.A. with an 18th-inning walk-off homer, that seemed like the straw that would break the camel's back. Instead, the resilient Jays have come roaring back, taking the next two games at Chavez Ravine by a combined score of 12-3, and they knocked around Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell to do it.
There's a saying in baseball that momentum is only as good as the next day's starting pitcher. Given that the Dodgers will be trotting out Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 6, they have to feel pretty good despite being in a 3-2 hole, even if their age may or may not be catching up to them.
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What makes Yoshinobu Yamamoto so great
Yamamoto was one of the best pitchers in baseball all year long. Of qualified starters, he's one of just four with an ERA under 2.50, and his .99 WHIP was the sixth-best mark in the majors. Somehow, he's been even better in the postseason, allowing just five runs in four starts. Three of those were given up in one game against the Phillies in the NLDS, but in his other three starts, he's averaging over eight innings and less than one run allowed.
The complete game has been almost completely eradicated from modern baseball, but Yamamoto is doing his best to bring it back. He's gone the full nine innings his last two times out, and he outlasted Jays starter Kevin Gausman, who had a gem of his own working before Will Smith and Max Muncy got to him with a pair of homers in the 7th inning.
Yamamoto was masterful in Game 2, but the Blue Jays are brimming with confidence after getting to Glasnow and Snell. They've succeeded by taking an ultra aggressive approach, especially against Snell, as Davis Schneider and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. opened Game 5 with homers on two of the first three pitches they saw.
The Blue Jays will need to adjust their approach to get to Yamamoto
Yamamoto needed only 105 pitches to get through his Game 2 complete game. He kept the Jays off-balance all night with a masterful mix of locations, speeds and spins. He pounded the strike zone with his four-seamer and cutter, got the Jays to chase his splitter and dropped in a devastating curve, always at precisely the right moment. As Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci wrote, Yamamoto's effort was a "magnum opus" that was in league with some of the greatest World Series performances of all time.
The Jays made only three fly ball outs in the game while swinging and missing at 17 pitches and striking out eight times. Yamamoto didn't walk a single batter because he was ahead in the count all night, often by getting Toronto to chase his off-speed stuff on the first and second pitch.
Yamamoto wasn't on the mound when the Dodgers took two of three from the Blue Jays in August. He also didn't pitch against them when they met last April, meaning that Game 2 was the first time most of Toronto's hitters have seen him. Six days later, there will no longer be that air of mystery that he benefited from.
Being aggressive has gotten the Jays to within one win of their first title since Joe Carter hit his famous home run off of the Phillies' Mitch Williams. That was over 30 years ago, and it was also the last time the Blue Jays hosted a World Series Game 6.
To close the series out, the Jays need to surprise Yamamoto by being patient. Take more first pitches, spit on the off-speed stuff. Make him come to them. Maybe that will result in a few punch-outs and easy outs early, but it could pay dividends later. Any pitcher who gets used to having their first pitch taken will naturally groove a few in there eventually to get ahead. Snell did that against Schneider to open the game last night, and he was punished for it.
Yamamoto is a dog, and I mean that in the best sense of the word. He's refusing to let anyone else control his destiny when he pitches, and he even told manager Dave Roberts that he was willing to come in to pitch the 19th inning of Game 3, just two days after pitching a complete game across the border. Not many pitchers would do that, but it's clear how badly he wants to win, and how far he's willing to go to do it.
That's legendary hero stuff, and it's why the Jays need him out of this game so they can get to that underwhelming Dodger bullpen. Being more patient equals Yamamoto throwing more pitches. Get that pitch count high enough, and he'll have no choice but to exit for someone more hittable.
There's a very human inclination to press when something you want is so close. The Blue Jays need to fight that urge. Going all gas, no brakes has been the perfect recipe the last two games, but solving Yamamoto will require more patience in the kitchen. If they can restrain themselves, they may just bake up a championship on Friday night.