By completing a four-game series sweep over the New York Yankees, the Toronto Blue Jays took over first place in the AL East on July 3 for the first time since mid-April. They've yet to surrender that top spot since. Their strong play would immediately continue after taking over first place, as they extended their winning streak to 10 games. Their impressive play, combined with the struggles of their AL East foes, allowed the Jays to open up a lead as large as 6.5 games in late July. Well, while they're still in first place right now, their recent struggles have New York and the Boston Red Sox closer than they would like.
What looked like a game that was going to result in one of the biggest wins of the season for Toronto on Labor Day turned out to be arguably their worst loss. The Jays came back against the Cincinnati Reds, turning a 2-1 deficit into a 4-2 lead in the top of the ninth on the strength of home runs from Bo Bichette and Daulton Varsho. Unfortunately, Tommy Nance and Brendon Little allowed the Reds to score three runs in the bottom half, handing the Jays a crushing defeat.
At 79-59, the Jays do still have sole possession of first place in the division, but it's very tight. As of this writing, the Yankees are 2.5 games back and the Red Sox are 3.0 games back. In other words, in just a matter of days, the Jays could lose first place entirely if things continue to go poorly. It's soul-searching time, to say the least.
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Blue Jays are melting down at the worst time, and the bullpen is to blame
All of a sudden, this Blue Jays team that had been so hot for so long is now losers of eight of their last 15 games and three of four. It feels like the bullpen is responsible for half, if not more, of those losses.
The bullpen, which had been so good for a while, has begun melting down. Since the All-Star break, Toronto's 5.51 bullpen ERA was the second-worst in the sport, better only than the 39-98 Colorado Rockies entering Monday's action. After allowing three runs in just 2.1 innings of work on Monday, that figure is only worse.
Sure, their closer, Jeff Hoffman, wasn't used in this game, but he's been a major part of the problem. In fact, most of Toronto's high-leverage relievers have struggled since the break.
Blue Jays Reliever | Second-Half ERA |
|---|---|
Seranthony Dominguez | 3.55 |
Jeff Hoffman | 5.00 |
Braydon Fisher | 5.23 |
Yariel Rodriguez | 5.87 |
Louis Varland | 6.00 |
Brendon Little | 6.28 |
The only marginally effective reliever the Jays have right now is Seranthony Dominguez, a pitcher who is awfully hard to trust fully late in games due to his command issues. Hoffman shouldn't be the closer anymore, but who is going to replace him? Braydon Fisher struggled to the point where he was demoted to Triple-A, and guys who you'd expect to step up like Yariel Rodriguez, Louis Varland and Brendon Little have all been even worse than Hoffman lately.
The Jays' lineup is underrated, and their rotation, especially with Shane Bieber, can be really good, but who can win games with this bullpen? It goes without saying this is going to have to change if the Jays want to win the division, let alone go on a deep postseason run.
Upcoming Blue Jays schedule suggests a turnaround is far from guaranteed
Sure, the Reds are a pretty good team, so it isn't the worst thing in the world to take a loss on the road against them, but when exactly are the easy games coming? The Reds are set to throw Nick Lodolo and Zack Littell in the final two games of the series, both of whom are having good years, so scoring runs won't be easy. Their upcoming schedule beyond this Reds series isn't exactly forgiving either.
Blue Jays Opponent | Location |
|---|---|
2 vs. Reds | Away |
3 vs. Yankees | Away |
3 vs. Astros | Home |
3 vs. Orioles | Home |
4 vs. Rays | Away |
3 vs. Royals | Away |
3 vs. Red Sox | Home |
3 vs. Rays | Home |
It's hard to find any "easy" matchups here. After Cincinnati, the Jays will continue their road trip against a Yankees team suddenly on their heels. They return home after that, but they face a first-place Houston Astros team and a Baltimore Orioles team that's played much better than their record suggests after a rough first couple of months of the season.
They'll go back on the road after against a Tampa Bay Rays team that swept them at George M. Steinbrenner Field earlier this season and has gone 5-1 against Toronto overall this season, and then they play three games against a Kansas City Royals team that might still be in postseason contention at that point. They close their season against the Red Sox and Rays, two tough matchups.
I expect the Jays to perform well, but again, nothing is a guarantee, especially since the Yankees' schedule is far easier. What looked like a formality is now anything but. The Jays will have to play their best baseball down the stretch against very quality competition to win the division.