Blue Jays pitching plan opens up John Schneider for serious second-guessing

John Schneider defied the odds and helped lead the Toronto Blue Jays back to the World Series for the first time since 1993. But while he's obviously played an instrumental role in the team's success, Schneider is far from perfect. I mean, look no further than his questionable bullpen management in Game 5 of the ALCS against the Seattle Mariners; Schneider's decision to turn to Brendon Little instead of Jeff Hoffman in a pressure-packed moment nearly cost Toronto its season. Now Schneider might be playing with fire again with a different pitching decision, this time with his Game 3 starter.

Rather than use Shane Bieber in Game 3, as Schneider had done in the ALDS and ALCS, the Blue Jays are turning to 41-year-old Max Scherzer to start Game 3 at Dodger Stadium, with Bieber starting the next night.

There are pros and cons to this decision are worth discussing.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.

Why Blue Jays were smart to flip-flop Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer

The reasons why this swap makes sense are two-fold. First and foremost, this allows Bieber, who started Game 7 of the ALCS and is coming off Tommy John surgery, to get an extra day of rest. The last thing the Jays want to do is push him too far, and when they're able to give him an extra day, it's wise to do so. Schneider acknowledged this when explaining his reasoning for the switch.

Secondly, this decision allows Scherzer, the worse pitcher of the two, to pitch directly after an off day, meaning the bullpen will be fresh. Scherzer pitched well in his lone postseason start against the Mariners, but he had a 9.00 ERA in his last six regular-season starts, and while the Mariners' lineup was very good, this Dodgers' lineup is a different beast. Who knows how Scherzer will perform?

It makes sense to want to give Bieber an extra day of rest, and it also makes sense to want to prioritize having a rested bullpen behind Scherzer, who is harder to trust. However, this decision has an obvious con as well.

Blue Jays' controversial decision can backfire if World Series goes the distance

Scherzer starting Game 3 means that he'd likely be tabbed to start a potential Game 7 if the series were to go that long, as was the case with Bieber in the ALCS. Sure, the Jays could start Bieber on short rest or go with a bullpen game, but the likely scenario would probably be that Scherzer starts that game.

Is that what the Jays want? I get that Bieber didn't exactly pitch his best game in Game 7 of the ALCS, and he's had his ups and downs this postseason, but he's also been the far better pitcher this season and in recent years. If the Jays were to lose a Game 7 with Scherzer allowing runs in the early innings, that'd really sting.

Of course, if the series doesn't even go to seven games, this decision doesn't really have any cons. If it does, though, that opens the door to some serious Schneider second-guessing, and it wouldn't be the first time we say that this postseason.