The Toronto Blue Jays are six games above .500 and within 2.5 games of the New York Yankees in the AL East. New York has been struggling at the plate of late. Toronto has more or less treaded water, waiting on a breakthrough moment. For a team that has operated aggressively in free agency and overspent to retain its franchise star, now is the time to go all-in and capitalize on this roster's finite timeline.
It's unclear if Bo Bichette will stick around beyond this season. Kevin Gausman has lost his fastball, metaphorically and literally. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will start in the All-Star Game — he's an incredible talent — but it's unclear if Toronto has the depth necessary to contend once October rolls around. The focus for Ross Atkins and the front office should probably be on the pitching staff.
That said, the Blue Jays need to be careful about which pitchers they inquire about. Several appealing names would become available at the trade deadline, but the wrong swing — the wrong investment — could set Toronto's future back even further. The front office cannot sacrifice meaningful assets on an unsuccessful rental.
As such, Arizona Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen feels like the wrong target.
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Zac Gallen's ongoing struggles should give Blue Jays pause ahead of trade deadline
Toronto was listed as a potential Zach Gallen suitor in ESPN's recent trade deadline rankings. But Gallen continued his precipitous decline on Wednesday afternoon, coughing up eight hits, a walk and five earned runs in 5.1 innings against the Chicago White Sox. That puts him at a 5.75 ERA through 17 starts, with a 1.41 WHIP and 88 strikeouts in 97.0 innings.
We have crossed the line from small sample size to concerning trend. Gallen has been one of MLB's most dominant aces for years now. There's no clear explanation for his sudden implsion at 29 years old, especially in a contract year. Gallen should be more motivated than ever to produce, but for whatever reason, it ain't happening.
This is a prime opportunity for a team like Toronto to buy low on a pitcher whose ceiling is Cy Young-caliber. But Gallen has found success hard to come by all season. We haven't seen very many shutdown performances. He is getting knocked around on a weekly basis. His breaking pitches, once borderline unhittable, are yielding consistent hard contact.
Gallen still has enough name value for Arizona to drive a hard bargain. The Blue Jays won't get him for free. Moreover, there's a chance he tanks Toronto's rotation, rather than elevating it. And, if he does, the Blue Jays will need to decide between shelling out a multi-year contract in free agency on the hope that Gallen turns it around in 2026, or simply taking the loss and letting him walk after sacrificing top prospects to acquire him.
That is not a great position to be in. Perhaps a different team, with a better farm system and a more stable financial situation, can afford to take the plunge. Gallen probably has something left in the tank. It's hard to imagine him just being a below-replacement level pitcher all of a sudden. But for Toronto, a team that needs to maximize its current World Series odds without gutting the farm system, Gallen is the wrong talent. Atkins and company need to bark up a different tree.