It hasn't always been pretty, but the Boston Red Sox will likely play in the postseason for the first time since 2021. FanGraphs gives them 95.9 percent odds to make it to October at the start of play on Tuesday, Sept. 2, and I'd say those odds are too low.
But while getting in is fun, this Red Sox team should be aiming very high. Even without Rafael Devers, they have the makings of a team set to go on a deep run in October. A look at their way-too-early projected postseason roster proves just that.
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Red Sox way-too-early postseason roster projection
Red Sox postseason starting lineup (9)
Red Sox Batting Order | Player | Position |
|---|---|---|
1 | Roman Anthony | LF |
2 | Alex Bregman | 3B |
3 | Jarren Duran | CF |
4 | Trevor Story | SS |
5 | Wilyer Abreu | RF |
6 | Masataka Yoshida | DH |
7 | Ceddanne Rafaela | 2B |
8 | Nathaniel Lowe | 1B |
9 | Carlos Narvaez | C |
This lineup, even without Devers, is quite good, particularly at the top. After a bit of a slow start to his big-league career, Roman Anthony looks like one of the best players in the game. Alex Bregman is having his best season since 2019. Jarren Duran has an .895 OPS in the second half, looking much more like the player who finished eighth in the AL MVP balloting last season after a sluggish first half. This is quite the trio.
The next couple of hitters could make or break Boston's postseason chances. Trevor Story has had an outstanding season, hitting 23 home runs and stealing 24 bases. His right-handed bat helps split the lefties, and he's the team leader in home runs. Batting behind him is Wilyer Abreu, the player ranked second in long balls. Abreu is currently sidelined with a hamstring injury, but he's expected to be back any day now, and he's had quite the season. If these two perform like the stars they're capable of being, this Red Sox lineup becomes deep and scary.
The real question is what the Red Sox end up doing with Masataka Yoshida, their primary DH. By playing him, they'd likely slide Ceddanne Rafaela at second base, making the team worse defensively. By not playing him, they could use a guy like Romy Gonzalez at second base, allowing Rafaela to play center field. This makes the Red Sox better defensively but worse offensively. I'd always start with the better offense and substitute defense in later if the Red Sox have a lead, but this is something to keep an eye on, particularly when Abreu is healthy.
Red Sox postseason rotation (3)
Red Sox Rotation Order | Player |
|---|---|
1 | Garrett Crochet |
2 | Brayan Bello |
3 | Lucas Giolito |
Where things stand right now, the Red Sox will likely enter the postseason as a Wild Card team, meaning they'll have to play a best-of-three series to start October. As annoying as it might be for the Red Sox to not receive a bye, this team is built to win a short series like this with this rotation.
If Tarik Skubal didn't exist, Garrett Crochet would likely be the AL Cy Young winner. He's been everything the Red Sox could've asked for and more, and I like his chances of beating just about anyone other than Skubal in October. Behind him is where things get interesting.
If I had Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito in a Red Sox postseason rotation in April, everyone would've laughed at me. Well, Giolito ranks third in the American League with a 2.26 ERA in 15 starts since June 10. Bello ranks fifth in that span with a 2.58 ERA in 15 appearances. Oh yeah, Crochet is right in the middle, ranking fourth with a 2.45 ERA since June 10. Bello and Giolito even rank first and second, respectively, in innings pitched over that time. This trio has been as good as any in the sport for several months now, and there's no reason to believe that trend won't continue into October.
Red Sox postseason bench (4)
- C Connor Wong
- INF David Hamilton
- INF/OF Romy Gonzalez
- OF Rob Refsnyder
This bench doesn't include many big names, but it's potent. Both Gonzalez and Rob Refsnyder will start every postseason game the Red Sox play against a left-handed pitcher and will be used off the bench against left-handed relievers. They should both make a major impact.
Connor Wong likely won't play much, but he's nothing more than the backup catcher. He's better than Ali Sanchez, as low of a bar as that might be to clear.
The real head-scratcher in the eyes of Red Sox fans is the insertion of David Hamilton onto the roster. While he's a popular scapegoat in the eyes of many, Hamilton can provide real value in October with his legs. Hamilton ranks in the 93rd percentile in sprint speed per Baseball Savant, making him a potent pinch runner. He stole 33 bases last season and has swiped 19 bags this season, meaning he can be a threat to steal an important base or two in October. With how valuable every run is, having a player that Alex Cora can lean on to pinch run late in a given game is very important.
Red Sox postseason bullpen (10)
- Aroldis Chapman
- Garrett Whitlock
- Justin Slaten
- Justin Wilson
- Steven Matz
- Greg Weissert
- Brennan Bernardino
- Jordan Hicks
- Payton Tolle
- Dustin May
This Red Sox bullpen has performed better than anyone could've expected, ranking second in the Majors in both ERA and fWAR, trailing only the vaunted San Diego Padres 'pen in both categories. A big reason for that, obviously, is Aroldis Chapman, the 37-year-old fireballer pitching like the best reliever in the game. He's had his share of postseason blowups in his career, but he also hasn't allowed a hit since June 23, spanning 17 appearances and 15 innings of work. Yeah, he's essentially three innings away from finishing off his second no-hitter right now.
Admittedly, the rest of this bullpen has some question marks. Guys like Justin Slaten, Garrett Whitlock, Justin Wilson, Greg Weissert and Steven Matz have all pitched extraordinarily well, but they've also made a combined 14 postseason appearances, nine of which came before 2019. These guys can pitch as well as they have in the regular season and potentially even better, but it's hard to predict that without a track record.
Some real X-factors could be guys who don't end up making the postseason rotation. Payton Tolle really impressed in his MLB debut and could easily wind up getting some big outs in relief in October. Dustin May hasn't pitched great with the Red Sox, but his stuff could tick up in a bullpen role.
Again, this bullpen has some question marks, but it also has a lot of upside. Chapman could easily be the best reliever in the league, the setup men have had strong years and Tolle can prove to be a real weapon. If the bullpen pitches as well as it can, watch out for the Sox.