Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Atlanta Braves enter the NL East race with a reloaded lineup featuring three elite power hitters and a history of consistent home run production.
- Recent performances show the team leading the league in home runs, reclaiming their identity as a power-hitting squad after a dip last season.
- This offensive surge is critical as the Braves navigate pitching challenges, including injuries and reliance on aging ace Chris Sale.
The Atlanta Braves being the team to beat in the NL East isn’t some Black Swan event. It feels like just yesterday they were winning six straight division titles. But we might be #Back. It might be #TheReturn of the Braves. It is #HotLanta again. Too many hashtags?
The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies have not exactly been raking, and Atlanta came into the season ready to challenge for their division crown again. And while (say it with me now) “it’s a small sample size,” there is one super heartening reason Braves fans can get legit excited: they are hitting home runs again.
Atlanta is playing to their strength again: hitting for power
The Braves have long had stacked hitting lineups, which beat you by hitting a statistically absurd number of balls out of a statistically significant number of parks. They were top four in team home runs every year from 2020-2024, including tying the all-time team record in 2023 with 307 blasts (I still cannot believe that happened, it was so ridiculous while it was happening). Then last year they were somehow … 14th in home runs. Suddenly: Fourth in their division.
Now, only eight games in, the Braves are leading the league in home runs. And you know what, it just feels right. Well, maybe not to the Mets or Phillies. They probably liked their old deal.
This isn’t necessarily a surprise; the Braves will always be projected to hit a bunch of homers so long as their lineup is reasonably healthy. They have three elite power sluggers in Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson and Austin Riley and some guys with power to spare in Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II. Their catcher, Drake Baldwin, already has three homers this season.
The Braves will need to hit well to overcome pitching concerns
But just because it makes sense doesn’t mean it isn’t important, since the Braves do not necessarily have the pitching staff required to adjust for a lack of power. Spencer Strider, their number two starter behind Chris Sale, already hit the IL with an oblique strain and when you are relying on Chris Sale to stay healthy lest your pitching staff completely fall apart … we are in scary territory.
Atlanta came into this season with a fine rotation, but it’s top-heavy and demands a ton out of Sale, who won the 2024 Cy Young but is no spring chicken anymore either. He was incredible in his first two outings, posting a 0.75 ERA and two wins. Nevertheless, even a peak Chris Sale can only give you one in five starts. Their bullpen is solid, though Raisel Iglesias will need to avoid falling off the age cliff, but it’s not the thing that will win them games. Their home runs, though, will.
FanGraphs currently projects basically a three-way tie at the top of the NL East, though their projections are an average of outcomes and thus skew fairly central; the Dodgers, one of the best teams ever assembled, aren’t even projected 100 wins. It is way too early to project the NL East, one of the premier beast divisions along with the AL East (what is with the east?), because (say it with me again) “it’s a small sample size.” But the Atlanta Braves simply should be hitting lots of home runs and winning games because of it. They are, and if they continue to do so, New York and Philly better watch themselves.