When Craig Counsell left the Milwaukee Brewers for the Chicago Cubs after the 2023 season, it felt as if the tides in the NL Central were turning in Chicago's favor. The Cubs had arguably more talent than Milwaukee, and had poached who many believed was the best manager in the sport. Well, it's safe to say things haven't gone as expected.
The Brewers ran away with the NL Central in 2024, winning the division by 10.0 games. The Cubs acquired Kyle Tucker that offseason hoping he'd bring them back to NL Central dominance, but the Brewers, the same team that lost both Willy Adames and Devin Williams over the offseason, have the best record in the majors and hold a 6.5-game lead over the Cubs in the division.
With the calendar about to flip to September, Brewers fans are dreaming of another division title, the outcome Counsell is dreading. Losing out on a division title to any Central team would've been disappointing, but doing so to the Brewers two years in a row is incredibly frustrating.
With this in mind, it feels worthwhile to take a look at the Brewers' magic number to win the division, giving fans an idea of when a celebration might occur.
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What is the Brewers' magic number to win the NL Central?
Calculating the magic number is quite simple. Per MLB.com, "The exact formula is: Games remaining +1 - (Losses by second place team - losses by first place team)." For the Brewers in the NL Central, the formula as of this writing would be 26 (Games remaining +1) - 58 (Cubs losses) - 52 (Brewers losses). The total comes out to 20.
This means that a combination of 20 Brewers wins or 20 Cubs losses the rest of the way will hand Milwaukee a division title. In other words, it'd be pretty shocking to see the Brewers lose their stranglehold of first place.
What is the Brewers' magic number to clinch a postseason berth?
Before the Brewers worry about clinching the NL Central, though, getting to the playoffs is the No. 1 priority. The Brewers are inching closer by the day to accomplishing that goal.
Their magic number to clinch a postseason berth is down to 10. The Cincinnati Reds are currently the first team outside of the playoff picture, and when using the same formula above, 26-(68-52), the total comes out to 10.
Any combination of 10 Brewers wins and 10 Reds losses will clinch the Brewers a postseason berth.
Predicting when the Brewers will win the division
Considering the Brewers' magic number is at 20, it'll likely be at least two or three weeks until they wrap things up in the NL Central. In order to predict exactly when they'll clinch, let's take a look at Milwaukee's upcoming schedule.
Brewers Opponent | No. of Games |
|---|---|
at Blue Jays | 1 |
vs. Phillies | 3 |
at Pirates | 3 |
at Rangers | 3 |
vs. Cardinals | 3 |
vs. Angels | 3 |
at Cardinals | 3 |
Outside of the game they're currently playing against the Toronto Blue Jays and the upcoming series against the Philadelphia Phillies, this schedule is remarkably easy. The only other team somewhat in contention is the Texas Rangers, and they're likely going to be without Corey Seager in that series.
Let's assume that the Brewers go something like 13-6 in these 19 games, and I could be underestimating there; that means that the Cubs would need to lose seven times for the Brewers to win the Central. Well, let's look at Chicago's upcoming schedule.
Cubs Opponent | No. of Games |
|---|---|
at Rockies | 1 |
vs. Braves | 3 |
vs. Nationals | 3 |
at Braves | 3 |
vs. Rays | 3 |
at Pirates | 3 |
at Reds | 4 |
This schedule also happens to be remarkably easy, with the only team still somewhat in contention being the Cincinnati Reds. I expect the Cubs to take care of business, but this is a 20-game stretch, and there are a lot of road games. They're going to lose some, and even if they go 13-7, the Brewers win the division as long as Milwaukee goes 13-6 in their stretch of games.
The Cubs are going to win their share of games, prolonging Milwaukee's celebration, but again, there's just too big of a gap right now.
With this in mind, I expect the division to be wrapped up sometime around the weekend of September 18-20. The Brewers will be in St. Louis, and the Cubs will be in Cincinnati at that point. If it isn't over then, it'll likely be very soon after.