Let me get this out of the way: THIS IS NOT GAMBLING ADVICE. Do not take my word and run to the sportsbook and place bets based on what I say. Please. For both of our sakes. This is merely a look at how Vegas (and in turn the public) views each MLB contender and whether I agree in that belief or non-belief.
Do the powers that be believe an August slide for the Dodgers is a sign of disappointing playoffs to come? Are they on board with the scorching hot Brewers? What about the upstart Mariners?
Los Angeles Dodgers: +310
Verdict: SELL
Can the Dodgers win the World Series again? You bet. Should they be the far-and-away favorite to do so after relinquishing first place in the NL West in the midst of multiple bullpen collapses? No chance!
I don't see the vision here. Maybe I'm buying too much into a mid-August backslide, but even in the first half of the season, this team never looked like the clear and obvious World Series frontrunner. They looked really good a lot, and great plenty, but is the gap between them and the field this big? Not in my brain, it's not.
Philadelphia Phillies: +600
Verdict: BUY
Maybe I've been Jhoan Duran-pilled since the trade deadline, but it felt like the Phillies had one big need, addressed that need, and now they're a machine heading into the postseason. Now with a five-game lead in the NL East, the Kyle Schwarber-led Phils might not have even touched their ceiling yet.
Milwaukee Brewers: +850
Verdict: BUY
You can yell at me all you want about how the Brewers won't be able to sustain their success in the postseason, and I will continue to not hear you because I'll be yelling "Hell yeah!" super loud every time they hit another single and another and another and another.
This team is good. It wins games. Winning games — the most important thing to do when trying to succeed in sports. Just in case you forgot.
Detroit Tigers: +1000
Verdict: SELL
This one hurts because I love watching this Tigers team play, but their slump has lasted long enough that I no longer trust them as a bona fide contender in the American League. Since the end of May, they're just .500 and look great at times and wholly beatable at others.
Seattle Mariners: +1000
Verdict: SELL
It pains me to say it... but I think the Mariners got a little overhyped after the trade deadline. I loved both of their big moves, don't get me wrong; adding Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor were signs from a notoriously cheap front office that this team is ready to compete now.
But questions remain; can guys at the bottom of the lineup like Dom Canzone, Cole Young and JP Crawford contribute in the postseason? Is there enough bullpen depth to not run their leverage arms into the ground? Will the starting pitching get back to the jaw-dropping level it was at last season?
Toronto Blue Jays: +1100
Verdict: SELL
The Blue Jays, like the Brewers, just hit the dang ball. This team has the best batting average in baseball by 10 full points. And still... the lack of home run pop from any one player and the team at large, paired with a sketchy pitching staff, gives me pause on the Blue Jays as a top-flight contender in the AL. Sorry, Canada.
New York Yankees: +1200
Verdict: BUY
I almost got fooled by the moral panic surrounding the Yankees, but I have come to my senses and once again believe the Yankees should be the favorites in the American League. They just won a series against Minnesota and have two series against St. Louis and Tampa Bay to help them get all the way back on track before a huge showdown with Boston.
I just can't foresee a playoffs where the Yankees bow out early, even with how poorly they've been playing the past few weeks.
San Diego Padres: +1200
Verdict: BUY
Bullpen too good, Petco Park too loud, city too temperate for me not to believe. I'm buying in on the Padres.
Houston Astros: +1400
Verdict: BUY
You just can't kill these guys, no matter how hard you try. Suddenly, after the re-addition of Carlos Correa and a resurgent Christian Walker, this team looks like a beast awoken from its slumber.
If Yordan Alvarez returns in time for a run in October, this team can once again be the biggest threat in the American League. As much as nobody wants it.
Chicago Cubs: +1600
Verdict: SELL
I don't want to give up on the Cubbies just yet. I know Pete Crow-Armstrong will come out of this slump eventually and they could hit their stride to end the year. But maybe this team just started out too strongly and tricked us a little bit.