To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Shohei Ohtani not only won his second straight World Series trophy, but he won his third straight MVP award and his fourth in the last five years. Ohtani continues to establish himself as a clear-cut Hall of Famer and one of the best players in MLB history.
You'd think with a player, even one as talented as Ohtani, there'd be some sort of voter fatigue and someone else would dethrone him as the NL's MVP winner in 2026. While it'd certainly be nice to have some fresh blood spotlighted, don't count on that.
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Shohei Ohtani should be considered the clear NL MVP favorite for 2026
Ohtani's season was ridiculous. He slashed .282/.392/.622 with 55 home runs and 102 RBI for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He led the National League in slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+, total bases and runs scored. He finished second, just one shy of Kyle Schwarber, in home runs. The offense alone was good enough.
What makes Ohtani the unicorn that he is, though, is his ability to pitch while hitting at such a high level. Ohtani made his return to the mound in mid-June after missing over a year recovering from major elbow surgery, and all he did was post a 2.87 ERA in 47 innings of work. He was limited, but didn't allow a run in his final 14.2 regular-season innings. He looked good in the postseason, too.
Ohtani posted a 3.50 ERA (and a 2.50 FIP) in the three postseason starts he made on extended rest, delivering a quality start in two of his three outings and completing six innings in all three starts. He struggled in Game 7 of the World Series on three days' rest, but looked like the Ohtani of old when he took the mound under normal circumstances.
He's set to take the mound with no limitations in the 2026 regular season. He's fully healthy and made it clear that he plans on pitching the entire season, assuming he can stay healthy.
Shohei Ohtani, through an interpreter on the MVP conference call: "I do plan on being able to pitch off mound from the beginning of the season...The biggest thing is to be able to stay healthy throughout the season and hopefully be able to start and end the season on the mound."
— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) November 14, 2025
Even if Ohtani isn't quite as prolific offensively, if he's even able to make 20 starts, how in the world is anyone going to dethrone him?
It'll take luck or history for Shohei Ohtani to come up short in three-peat bid
An Ohtani injury would obviously impact his MVP odds, particularly one that affects Ohtani's ability to hit. Even when he isn't pitching, we've seen him win the MVP award. Barring that bad luck, though, it'd take a historic season for someone to out-duel Ohtani.
The only time Ohtani has fallen short in the MVP race in the last half-decade came in 2022. Aaron Judge won it, and he did so on the back of a historic season. Just look at his stats from that year.
- Aaron Judge 2022 stats: .311/.425/.686, 62 HR, 131 RBI, 206 wRC+, 11.1 fWAR
Judge broke the single-season home run record in the American League by hitting 62 home runs. He had one of the best offensive seasons in MLB history. In just about every circumstance, a year this good would win the award unanimously. Shohei Ohtani's presence negated that, as he received two of the first-place votes.
Ohtani had an absurd year, hitting 34 home runs, posting an .875 OPS, and also posting a 2.34 ERA and finishing fourth in the AL Cy Young balloting. It was arguably his most complete season, considering what he was able to do on the mound and at the plate. The only reason he didn't win the MVP that year was because of Judge. The only reason the historically great Judge didn't win the award unanimously is because of Ohtani. See what I mean? It takes greatness for someone to dethrone Ohtani, and even then, it isn't a guarantee.
NL dark horses with the best shot at dethroning Shohei Ohtani
Objectively, it's hard to give anyone much of a shot to win the NL MVP award in 2026 because of how dominant Ohtani is, but these three players probably have the best chance when it comes to dethroning him.
Juan Soto
Juan Soto's New York Mets career got off to a sluggish start, but he slashed .282/.417/.588 with 34 home runs and 88 RBI after June 1. His OPS was over 1.000 in those four months - an MVP-caliber mark. Perhaps if Soto can keep that up for an entire season and hit 50-ish home runs while leading the Mets to the playoffs, he can find a way to win it.
Kyle Schwarber*
This is obviously contingent on Kyle Schwarber re-signing with the Philadelphia Phillies or joining a different National League team. His path is a bit tougher than Soto's because he's only a DH and is not the all-around hitter Soto is, but what if Schwarber hits like 65 home runs? It's obviously unlikely, but after he hit 56, who knows?
James Wood
This is easily my biggest reach, but James Wood did have a ridiculous first half. He slashed .278/.381/.534 with 24 home runs and 69 RBI for the Washington Nationals. He did this as a 22-year-old playing in his first full season. His second half was atrocious, so he has adjustments to make, but Wood has the talent to do some truly special things. Again, it's a long shot, but if he puts it all together, who knows his ceiling is through the roof.
Paul Skenes
It's very difficult for a pitcher to win an MVP award, but if anyone can do it, it's probably Paul Skenes. The right-hander had a sub-2.00 ERA in 32 starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates this season and won the NL Cy Young award unanimously. He even finished sixth in the MVP balloting and received a couple of fourth-place votes. Again, it's a long shot, but perhaps Skenes will only get better and have a season to remember. It wouldn't be unheard of.