The St. Louis Cardinals are in a bit of trade deadline purgatory. While the Redbirds are still viably in playoff contention, sitting 6.5 games back behind the division-leading Cubs but only 1.5 back of the third Wild Card spot. However, they entered the season with the expectations that the transition from John Mozeliak to Chaim Bloom would likely mean selling parts unlikely to be part of their future. And now with all of that, they're about to find out they're in a lose-lose situation of their own making with star closer Ryan Helsley.
Mozeliak had a market to sell Helsley last year at the trade deadline, or even in the offseason, before entering the 2025 season, the final before hitting free agency. Instead, he held onto the closer for one reason or another, and now sits in a situation wherein he's ultimately now wasted one of the Cardinals' biggest assets.
The Cardinals could trade Helsley still, as has been suggested by several insiders already. And given the demand for relievers, they could get a decent prospect haul in return. But given their situation, it's still one where it's hard to envision a scenario where St. Louis comes out on the other side feeling like they scored a spiritual win.
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Cardinals can only blame themselves for Ryan Helsley trade disaster
Even with relievers in high demand, a buying team is only going to give up but so much for a rental they could lose in free agency. On that alone, this could be construed as a conundrum for the Cardinals. If they were to hold onto Helsley and then just let him walk, it's not inconceivable to think that the compensatory draft pick they'd receive for losing him wouldn't be of similar value to the prospect they would get back in a trade.
So, you're probably saying that the Cardinals should just hold onto their closer and get the draft pick, right? Well, that might actually make the most sense. But there's two things at play there. For one, Helsley hasn't been as dominant this season as in years past. His ERA sits at 3.27 for the season with a 3.84 FIP and a 1.424 WHIP, which would be the highest of his career. Put simply, he's not been the lockdown guy at the end of the bullpen that he has been for the past three seasons.
Beyond that, having a closer is really only all that valuable if a team remains in contention. While that's not out of the question for the Cardinals, they do come out of the All-Star break on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs, and there's an argument to be made that St. Louis has largely overachieved to this point. So if they fall out of the postseason race while retaining Helsley, it would, at minimum, be strange optically.
What the Cardinals really need to get out of this unwinnable situation is to find a time machine, throw Mozeliak in it, and not let him return until he trades Helsley at last year's deadline.
Since that's not an actual thing that's possible, though, the Cardinals are stuck. No matter what they do with Helsley short of lucking into a desperate team overpaying for the closer or going on a run into the playoffs, there's going to be reason to criticize the decision. That's certainly not what you're hoping for in a situation like this.