Several future stars will come off the board in this weekend's MLB Draft, but none have generated as much buzz as the shortstop from Stillwater High School in Oklahoma. Ethan Holliday, the middle son of former MLB outfielder Matt Holliday and the younger brother of Baltimore Orioles infielder Jackson Holliday, is ranked as the No. 1 overall prospect at MLB Pipeline and the No. 2 prospect at ESPN.
That said, Holliday's draft stock has fluctuated in recent months. Right now, ESPN's Kiley McDaniel projects the 18-year-old to the Colorado Rockies with the fourth overall pick. Ethan's dad, Matt, began his career with the Rockies, so it's a fitting destination. There is also the simple fact that no team needs a foundational star more than Colorado.
But is it the best landing spot for Ethan and his individual growth? One could argue that he'd be better off in a more stable organization with a better track record of player development, such as... the St. Louis Cardinals, who own the No. 5 pick and are about to hand the front office over to farm system extraordinaire Chaim Bloom. But alas, McDaniel does not think Holliday will fall to St. Louis.
"It has been long rumored, maybe since the night of the draft lottery at the MLB winter meetings, that Holliday wouldn't get past this pick, both because of team preference and his father Matt's history in Colorado," per ESPN. "If Holliday doesn't go No. 1 to the Nationals, this is very likely his landing spot -- and I wouldn't be surprised if he got the biggest bonus in this draft and the biggest bonus in this draft era to engineer this outcome for the Rockies."
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Ethan Holliday not expected to fall past Rockies at No. 4, despite Cardinals interest
McDaniel believes the Cardinals have LSU pitcher Kade Anderson and Holliday at Nos. 1 and 2 on their boards, respectively. With Anderson the current odds-on favorite to join Washington in the top slot, that means Holliday would be the pick for St. Louis if he falls past Colorado. While Matt Holliday began his career with the Rockies, he spent even more time in a St. Louis uniform. There are deep family ties there as well, plus it's a more respectable organization top to bottom.
Unfortunately, it just does not seem meant to be. We can't rule out the potential of Holliday being the pick to Washington at No. 1, while Colorado at No. 4 feels like too good an outcome for the Rockies to pass up. It feels fated.
As such, the Cardinals will be left to look elsewhere. One can't help but wonder if ESPN's projection might give Holliday a bit of FOMO.
Cardinals select SS Eli Willits with No. 5 pick in MLB mock draft
With Holliday off the board, St. Louis selects who McDaniel pegs as the likely No. 3 on their draft board: shortstop Eli Willits of Fort Cobb-Broxton High School in... Oklahoma. So instead of going to the more functional of his dad's former teams, Ethan ends up with a historically bad Rockies team while another Oklahoma high schooler at his very same position gets the benefit of coming up in the Cardinals farm system.
If you're looking for silver linings from Holliday's perspective, it is that Colorado has a void of star power and he would immediately become the face of the organization, years before his MLB debut. Moreover, the path to an MLB promotion might be quicker on a team as talent-poor as Colorado, whereas the Cards figure to be more competitive (and thus more patient). Patience is a virtue developmentally, but if Holliday is confident in his ability to quickly rise up the ranks, there could be a world in which he views the Rockies favorably.