Carlos Mendoza’s seat is scorching — and he’s not alone this October

We don’t blame New York Mets fans for imagining that no collapse would ever top the end of 2007, where the Mets lost 12 of their final 17 games and missed the postseason. 

Then came the 2025 Mets, who dropped to 21-28 in the second half following Wednesday’s 11-3 loss to the rival Philadelphia Phillies. Not only have the 76-70 Mets dropped five straight, but they entered Thursday holding a narrow two-game lead over the San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds for the NL’s third and final Wild Card spot. 

At this point, it’s not difficult to see second-year manager Carlos Mendoza becoming the scapegoat. The Mets were 63-48 and held a half-game lead in the NL East on Aug. 2. Very few managers can survive a 13-22 stretch, especially not if the Mets miss the postseason with the sport’s second-highest payroll.

If it’s any consolation for Mendoza, he’s not the only manager whose seat might be warm entering the season’s final weeks. For this list, we are obviously omitting interim managers, seeing as teams can simply decide to move on rather than fire them. We’ve also chosen to exclude Atlanta’s Brian Snitker and the Angels’ Ron Washington, both of whom might retire. 

Aaron Boone, New York Yankees

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman has only switched managers twice in nearly 30 years, parting ways with Joe Torre following the 2007 season and firing Joe Girardi after a 2017 ALCS loss. History works in Boone’s favor, and the Yankees are inching closer to reaching the playoffs for the seventh time in his eight seasons. 

Yankees fans rightfully get frustrated with Boone for his stubbornness and loyalty to players, with his commitment to keeping Anthony Volpe in the lineup despite leading the league in errors, especially standing out. To his credit, Boone recently benched Volpe and hasn’t reinserted former All-Star Devin Williams into the closer role, so maybe he’s learning.

Either way, the Yankees awarded Boone a two-year contract extension earlier this year, and the club survived a dreadful summer slump. We are confident that Boone will make it to at least 2027, barring a complete collapse next season. If the Yankees haven’t fired Boone yet, then there’s no reason to think a change is coming.

Prediction: Boone returns as the Yankees’ manager in 2026.

Alex Cora, Boston Red Sox

Cora might seem like a strange choice, even more so because the Red Sox aren’t far from clinching their first playoff berth since 2021. However, Red Sox executive Craig Breslow didn’t hire Cora, and the Rafael Devers trade made it clear that Breslow intends to run the organization his way.

Would the Red Sox really fire Cora? It’d be easy for Breslow and ownership to justify such a decision if Boston loses in the Wild Card Round, citing the club’s lack of postseason victories since their 2018 World Series title. Never mind that the Red Sox dealt Mookie Betts ahead of the 2020 season and none of the players they acquired panned out. 

For what it’s worth, we like Cora and consider him one of baseball’s top active managers. Cora likely wouldn’t need to wait long before finding a new job if he’s not managing the Red Sox next year.

Prediction: The Red Sox don’t fire Cora, though we won’t rule out both sides “mutually” moving on.

Carlos Mendoza, New York Mets

The Mets are in total freefall, and heads are going to fly. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the entire coaching staff dismissed following their second-half collapse, and Mendoza should be grateful that he even still has a job as of publication. There is no rationalizing or defending what we’ve seen in Queens over the last two months, and it’s objectively incredible that a team could fall apart this quickly.

Outside of a World Series appearance, there aren’t many things that we imagine could save Mendoza moving forward. Whether or not Steve Cohen and David Stearns would keep Mendoza with an NLCS loss likely depends on how that series goes. But this definitely feels like a situation where the Mets could change managers even if they reach the NLDS. The expectations were so high — and the Mets lived up to said expectations through mid-June — that this season already feels like a failure. 

Prediction: The Mets fire Mendoza, barring an NLCS appearance.

Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays

Cash should be safe, considering that his February 2024 contract extension could keep him in Tampa through 2030. Cash also managed this year’s team with a significant disadvantage given that they’re playing at Steinbrenner Field rather than Tropicana Field, though the Rays entered play on Sept. 11 with a 38-36 home record.

However, the Rays will miss the postseason for the second straight year, and Tampa has only won a single playoff game since their 2020 World Series run. In fact, Tampa will have failed to qualify for the postseason in six of Cash’s 11 years at the helm. 

Such a resume would likely spell doom for most managers, but the Rays clearly love Cash and everything that he brings to the table. Much like Joe Maddon before him, Cash has kept the Rays in contention every year despite regularly fielding one of the sport’s lowest payrolls. There is no reason for the Rays to even consider dismissing Cash, at least not yet.

Prediction: The Rays bring Cash back for 2026.

Rob Thomson, Philadelphia Phillies

Despite the Philies closing in on their second straight NL East title, ESPN listed the 62-year-old Thomson as a potential candidate to be dismissed this fall. MLB insider Buster Olney cited Phillies owner John Middleton’s heavy spending — Philadelphia’s $289 million payroll trails only the Dodgers ($348 million), Mets ($339 million), and Yankees ($297 million) as of September 2025 — as a possible catalyst for replacing managers.

“The Phillies have an older group of players, and if they fall short again, could Middleton look for a change?” Olney wondered. 

If Thomson wants to return in 2026, we expect him to be on the Phillies’ bench next year. The Phillies are on track for their third straight 90-win season, and Thomson has reached the NLCS twice. It’s hard for us to see the team parting ways with Thomson when he’s been so successful and brought continued winning back to Philadelphia after so many years of mediocrity. 

Prediction: Thomson is the Phillies’ manager in 2026 unless he retires.

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