The Cincinnati Reds have a lot to be proud of, having made the postseason against all odds. The New York Mets had the league's top payroll entering the season, with a roster that included Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto. None of it mattered, with the Reds holding the tiebreaker and thus clinching the final NL Wild Card spot to end the regular season.
Unfortunately for Cincinnati, that meant a date with the seasoned Los Angeles Dodgers. LA won the World Series just last year, and the Reds didn't stand much of a chance after losing Game 1 in a contest which their ace, Hunter Greene, gave up five earned runs and tipped his pitches in three innings. The Reds got a rude awakening, but it does not eliminate their accomplishments this campaign. The question now becomes how Nick Krall can build upon that success. The expectations for Terry Francona's second season in charge just went way up.
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Cincinnati Reds free agency preview: A bullpen at risk
The problem for the Reds front office when it comes to building a sustainable contender is simple: There is no guarantee ownership will spend enough to do so. From the perspective of Bob Castellini, this was a profitable season. The Reds made the playoffs, so fans should be happy. Cincinnati has a strong farm system and a great manager. What Castellini would fail to realize with that approach is that remaining stagnant would be inherently bad for the Reds on-field product and their brand. If the ultimate goal is to win a World Series – which we can only hope it is – then Cincy must be active this winter. They'll have a lot of arms to replace.
Free agents who won't be back: Nick Martinez
The Reds have asked a lot of Nick Martinez during his tenure. He's spent time as both as starting pitcher and a relief pitcher. This season he made over $21 million while pitching to a 4.46 ERA, which was a far cry from the contract the Reds gave him in the winter. In 2024, Martinez had a 3.10 ERA, arguably his best season in the major leagues.
That leaves Cincinnati with a tough decision to make. In a market without many high-profile arms, should they keep Martinez around since he's their Swiss-army knife and could be trusted in high-pressure situations in the past, or do they let him walk?
Unless Martinez is willing to take a significant pay cut, my money is on the Reds letting him leave in free agency.
Free agents who won't be back: Emilio Pagan
Emilio Pagan stepped up big time in the 2025 season, and in doing so made himself a lot of money. Pagan was tabbed as the closer due to struggles from Alex Diaz early this season. Pagan finished his campaign with 32 saves and a 2.88 ERA. He was one of the only stable forces in the Reds bullpen. However, if Cincinnati is going to keep him around, they're going to have to pay him far more than his $8.2 million price tag.
That's how much Pagan made in 2025. In free agency, Pagan could make more than double that amount. While he is entering his age-35 season, Pagan doesn't have a lot of mileage on him as a relief pitcher and for that reason could earn a multiyear deal, which is somewhat of a rarity for relievers his age. The Reds aren't known for paying up, even to keep their own, so the concept of paying Pagan after what could be a fluke season is...unlikely.
Free agents who won't be back: Austin Hays
Austin Hays has a mutual option for the 2025 offseason, but all it takes is one side turning it down for the outfielder to become a free agent. Hays would be due $12 million if the Reds agreed to keep him on the team, but that seems unlikely, as Blog Red Machine detailed in their column on the team's likely offseason departures:
"Austin Hays' heroics did not go unnoticed this season, but there's no way he's worth the $12-million mutual option for 2026. The Reds will undoubtedly decline their end of it, and the hard-swinging outfielder will become a free agent. Though Cincy could re-sign him to a cheaper deal, left field will likely be an open competition between Spencer Steer, Will Benson, and Hector Rodriguez next spring," Drew Koch wrote.
Hays did have a .768 OPS with the Reds in 2025, but played in just over 100 games and registered a 0.78 WAR. For that amount of money – which isn't insignificant to the Reds ownership group – they can do better.
Free agents who won't be back: Wade Miley
Wade Miley flirted with retirement last season with the Milwaukee Brewers, but ultimately decided he wanted to play another season. So, the Reds gave him that opportunity. However, after another subpar season in Cincinnati – he was ultimately replaced by Hunter Greene and a deep Reds pitching staff – the time has come to either move on or leave the game altogether.
Our money is on the latter, as Miley is 38 years old and coming off a season in which he threw a 6.75 ERA. He is no longer a viable starting pitcher or reliever for that matter unless something drastically changes. The Reds should not entertain his return, even though he was a tremendous clubhouse presence down the stretch.
Reds trade targets: Something has to give in rotation and infield
Frankly, I have a tough time finding a player on the Reds roster worth giving up on at this juncture, but there's no denying they have a surplus of starting pitching and infield talent. The Reds are set defensively with Elly De L Cruz at shortstop, Matt McLain at second base and Ke'Bryan Hayes at third base. First base is a toss-up, with Sal Stewart and Spencer Steer battling for the spot. If Cincinnati brings back Miguel Andujar, he could move to first base as well.
As for the rotation, is there such a thing as too many arms? Greene will be back, as well as Brady Singer. Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott aren't going anywhere. Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder are recent first-round picks who deserve playing time. Brandon Williamson showed flashes before Tommy John surgery.
The Reds will trade from a surplus, in part because they have to in order to improve this roster. But what direction they choose to go in is a major question mark.