This time last month, Connelly Early wasn't even on the Boston Red Sox' big-league roster. The fifth-round pick from the 2023 draft out of Virginia had just been promoted to Triple-A Worcester at the end of July, but he, in the wake of Payton Tolle's even more rapid rise to Boston, made his first MLB start for the Red Sox on Sept. 6 against the A's in Sacramento. He spun a gem, going five innings with no hits and just one walk while striking out 11. But on Thursday night, the task is much taller.
With injuries to Lucas Giolito and virtually all of Boston's pitching depth, Early will get the start for the winner-take-all Game 3 of the AL Wild Card series against the rival New York Yankees. That's not a spot that Early nor the Red Sox expected to be in, but there are no excuses in the postseason.
That's even true when the young left-hander is creating one footnote after another in the record books. He's the youngest pitcher to start a playoff game since Babe Ruth in 1916 — Early is 23 years old and 182 days, while Ruth was a 21-year-old for, as fate would have it, Boston. He's the first pitcher to start a winner-take-all game in the postseason less than 30 days after his MLB debut.
And yet, as he matches up with a fellow rookie in the Yankees' Cam Schlittler, there's reason for Red Sox fans to feel confident.
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Connelly Early making history in Red Sox postseason start, but his moxie has been proven
Despite all of the history of how young Connelly Early is and having made only four starts, those four starts have yielded enough results for Red Sox fans to at least feel hopeful to some meaningful degree. The counting stats themselves are impressive, pitching 19.1 innings with just 17 hits and four walks while striking out 29, posting a 2.33 ERA and a 0.91 FIP.
Beyond that, though, if Early had enough innings pitched to qualify, his underlying numbers would be nothing short of elite. Of the Baseball Savant metrics, only his Hard-Hit rate against (40.0%) and fastball velocity, wouldn't be well in the top-fifth of the league, including a ridiculous 36.7 strikeout percentage with only a 5.1% walk rate.
That all encompasses what Early brings to this Red Sox rotation, even with his late debut, however. He's not even close to the hardest thrower in any iteration of Boston's rotation. Point blank, he's much more akin to a Lucas Giolito in terms of velocity than he is even Brayan Bello, much less Garrett Crochet.
Yet, what sets him apart from someone like Tolle, who came up and was dominant in his first outing, but struggled thereafter, is that he's not just working with a high-extension, low-velo fastball. Early might be 23 years old, but he has the full arsenal.
Through his first four starts in the big leagues, Early has thrown three pitches more than 19% of the time, his four-seamer, curveball, and changeup. Of those three pitches, the "worst" has been the changeup, which has an expected OPS against him of still only .591 — the fastball and curveball have produced expected OPS numbers of .492 and .356, respectively.
For good measure, though, he can still keep hitters off balance beyond that with a sinker, slider and sweeper also in his arsenal. More important than just have six pitches in his repertoire, he can throw all six for strikes. The command the young southpaw has displayed has been second to none for someone with his lack of high-end experience.
And while Alex Cora and many Red Sox fans would've preferred to have Giolito or a proven veteran in this spot with more experience, that's all why there's still a real belief, or at least there should be, that Early is up for the task.
Connelly Early's big stage is a potential legend-maker, but the Red Sox are ready to pivot too
All of this creates an opportunity for Early, no matter what the rest of his career looks like, to become a Red Sox legend that fans remember for years to come. If he goes on the road in an MLB ballpark for the first time — his first two road starts were against the A's and Rays in minor league parks — in a do-or-die game against the Yankees and spins a gem, he'll never be forgotten.
For what it's worth, Early has shown that type of moxie before, even at a lower level. In 2023 with Virginia in the NCAA Baseball Tournament, Early's Cavaliers fell behind against conference rival Duke in the Super Regionals by losing the first game. They put Early on the mound, and all he did was come out and pitch seven inning with no earned runs en route to a 14-4 win. He did it again in the College World Series too, allowing just two runs over five innings against TCU, even if UVA went on to lose.
But while there is optimism and pressure on Early in such a unique spot — both he and Schlittler have never faced anyone on the opposing lineup before — the fact of the matter is that Cora and the Red Sox are about to be as aggressive as you've ever seen. That happened in Game 2 and didn't work out, but they're more than prepared to do it again.
The tension couldn't be any higher in the Bronx on Thursday night, and that has to be doubly true for Early in this situation. And yet, Red Sox fans have the chance to see something special from the 23-year-old. He's already making history by starting in itself with his age and level of experience — why not make a little more by rising to the occasion?