The Chicago Cubs have clinched a postseason berth and in all likelihood the No. 4 seed in the National League playoffs. In that sense, Craig Counsell has done his job – though the Cubs did fail to win the NL Central for the second year in a row, once again falling at the hands of Counsell's former team in Milwaukee. Still, making the playoffs is worth celebrating, especially considering the ups and downs Chicago has gone through over the course of a 162-game season.
It's no secret that the Cubs are a team which relies heavily on their lineup. The pitching staff lacks many marquee names, especially once Justin Steele went down for the remainder of the season back in April. Steele has ace potential at times, as does Shota Imanaga. However, neither can be considered that just yet, and while the Cubs have high hopes for NL Rookie of the Year candidate Cade Horton, asking him to carry Chicago's pitching staff this postseason is a reach.
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Cubs offense-first approach has some clear flaws
The issue with the Cubs offenseive approach the last few months has been the lackluster play of some of their stars. Kyle Tucker has turned around a rough second half, but Pete Crow-Armstrong gets worse by the series. Counsell hasn't shied away from that, while also admitting it's on the team as a whole to make up for his struggles.
“It’s not on one guy to do this,” Counsell said, per The Athletic. “The consistent offenses take turns at being productive. Look, if we’re going to play a lot of October baseball, some of these guys are going to have to do special things. Which ones? It doesn’t really matter, but some of these guys are going to have to do some special things.
The Cubs haven't won a playoff game since 2017 and in their last two postseason appearances, their offense scored just two runs over 31 innings combined (per Mooney of The Athletic). This is why the hot-and-cold nature of some of Chicago's finest stars is so concerning to the fanbase as we head into October. For example, here's what Counsell said about PCA just last week:
“It’s a daily question, and no offense to that, but I don’t know what to tell you,” Counsell said. “I have a hard time breaking down Pete’s swing every single day. Swing at good pitches. Hit ‘em hard. Use the barrel. That’ll work.”
The truth of the matter is, there's little Counsell or the Cubs coaching staff can do other than put their players in the best position to succeed. This team was designed to win games by outscoring their opponents.
Can the Cubs rotation hold up in the postseason?
Chicago ranks eighth in runs per game in the major leagues. Six of the seven teams ahead of them are also likely to make the postseason. They also, quite surprisingly, rank eighth in team earned runs against per game. That type of consistency is something they'll need more of in October.
The Cubs postseason rotation should include the likes of Matthew Boyd, Imanaga, Horton and perhaps Colin Rea if they need a fourth starting pitcher, albeit on a short leash. Counsell himself is creative enough to roll with an opener if necessary, and Rea could provide a few innings out of the bullpen.
Depending on the matchup, the Cubs could survive the Wild Card round with their top-three starters in tact. As of this writing, Chicago would face off against the San Diego Padres, a team which faces similar issues at the top of their starting rotation. However, if the Cubs are to make it much further, they'll need one of Boyd, Imanaga or Horton to go on a magical postseason run, and a consistent lineup to boot. October is a time when weaknesses are highlighted in baseball.