Dave Dombrowski's non-answer on Kyle Schwarber's future has fans fearing worst

Kyle Schwarber is enjoying the best season of his career at age 32. The slugging lefty is slashing .252/.377/.580 with 41 home runs and 95 RBI in 433 at-bats. He's on track to smash his career highs in homers and RBI, not to mention OPS+ and a number of more advanced analytic categories. As a result, the Philadelphia Phillies' beloved designated hitter is squarely in the MVP race, polling second behind annual frontrunner Shohei Ohtani.

Schwarber is also on an expiring contract. The Phillies have failed to gain any tangible traction in extension talks. That is naturally a concern to fans, who worry about Schwarber's market exceeding Philadelphia's willingness to spend next winter. Most teams are hesitant to invest major resources in older, power-over-average hitters with next to zero utility in the field, but Schwarber is a unicorn. He's one of the very best hitters this game has to offer.

A look at the advanced metrics, and Schwarber has actually underperformed expectations. His "expected batting average," per Baseball Savant, is .274 — a full 24 points better than his actual average. His expected slugging is .621, a remarkable 41 points higher than his actual slugging percentage of .580, which is the fourth-highest in MLB behind Ohtani, Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh. He has been "unlucky" statistically in one of the most dominant offensive campaigns in recent memory.

Dave Dombrowski's latest comments on Schwarber's upcoming free agency will not assuage the anxiety boiling up in Philadelphia.

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Dave Dombrowski is mum on Kyle Schwarber's future with Phillies

In a recent appearance on 94.1 WIP, Dombrowski was asked if the Phillies and Schwarber were in contact about a new contract and how he feels about the All-Star slugger. Dombrowski made it clear that Philly wants him back, but stopped well short of saying the Phillies were in active negotiations, much less close on a new deal.

“I can’t say one bad thing about Kyle Schwarber," he said. "We’d love to have him back in the organization for years to come. Know it probably won’t be easy… We’ll wait and see what happens.”

Fans are sure to react with apprehension at Dombrowski's phrasing of "(we) know it probably won't be easy." Because there's truth to that, and it aligns all too perfectly with Philadelphia's recent projection of financial limitation.

Phillies already losing ground in Kyle Schwarber free agency race

With each and every home run, Schwarber drives up the price in free agency and gains leverage over the Phillies front office. Philadelphia has a lot of money coming off the books this summer. If Dombrowski reroutes those funds to a different superstar, like Kyle Tucker, fans will accept it with a tip of the cap to Schwarber. But after back-to-back offseasons with a traditional big swing from Dombrowski, there is genuine fear that the former World Series-winning GM has lost his fastball.

Philly typically is good about paying its guys and keeping this core together — far better than almost every other organization in MLB, actually. But Schwarber fits into a complicated category, as there are valid misgivings about his long-term projection. He runs the bases at a snail's pace, he's DH-exclusive at 32, and he has never been a very consistent hitter in terms of average. The moonshot won't leave his repertoire any time soon, but the odds of Schwarber ever replicating this level of production are next to zero.

Still, for a lineup as power-starved as Philadelphia, Schwarber is essential. He's beloved in the locker room and in the community. This team is better with him on it. If the Phillies can't pull out the necessary stops in free agency, expect Dombrowski to face the wrath of MLB's most passionate fanbase.