Well, that was anti-climactic. A Championship Series round that seemed primed to deliver some epic playoff baseball has largely fallen flat so far: The feel-good Toronto Blue Jays ran into the feel-even-better Seattle Mariners in two straight ugly losses, while the Milwaukee Brewers offense got summarily outclassed in consecutive gems from Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitching. Two No. 1 seeds, two teams with home-field advantage, and now both are heading on the road facing 2-0 holes that feel darn near insurmountable.
Of course, we know that in October, no lead is ever actually insurmountable. As a wise man once said, it ain't over 'til it's over, and one game can change the trajectory of a series and a season. So: For those in Toronto and Milwaukee looking for optimism, which one of these teams stands the best chance of mounting a comeback for the ages? There are reasons to believe in both, but one of them stands out in particular.
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Blue Jays pitching doesn't line up well for an ALCS comeback
It's easy to look at the first two games of this series and point the finger at Toronto's offense. It was a top-three unit by OPS during the regular season, after all, and arguably the single biggest reason the Jays have gotten to this point. And I'm certainly not going to argue that the bats haven't been disappointing: The Blue Jays are hitting .131/.232/.197 with just two extra-base hits as a team so far in the ALCS, and it'll be awfully hard to win anything if names like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho remain ice cold.
But at the same time, I'm not sure that Toronto would be able to win four games in five tries even if its lineup suddenly starts hitting the way it has all year. This is a perilously thin pitching staff, one that will have to survive the next two games without the only two reliable starters in its rotation. With Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage throwing Games 1 and 2, Games 3 and 4 will come down to Shane Bieber and (gulp) Max Scherzer; the latter was so bad that he didn't even make the Jays' ALDS roster, while the former gave up three runs (two earned) on five hits and a walk in 2.2 innings of work in a loss to the Yankees last week.
Now those two are tasked with saving Toronto's season, on the road, in a hostile environment, against a Seattle offense that's looking very deep and dangerous right now. And that's not even mentioning the very real questions about the team's bullpen, in the event that either Bieber or Scherzer get pulled earlier. And, even if they do manage to steal one of the next two games, they'll need to win three in a row with two of them started by Yesavage (who got knocked around in Game 2) and likely Bieber in Game 7. H
Home-field advantage certainly helps, and it's possible that the Jays get a vintage start from Bieber and hit well enough to send this back to Toronto. Right now, though, it's hard to see it.
Milwaukee can climb back into NLCS — if it gets back to Brewers Ball
I don't want to overstate the case here: The Brewers have their backs against the wall right now, heading to Dodger Stadium down 2-0 after getting blanked by both Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. L.A. still has Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani left in the chamber to start Games 3 and 4, and it feels like only a matter of time before Ohtani wakes up at the plate, too. This Los Angeles team is very, very good, and winning four of five feels like a Herculean task. News at 11.
Still, if I had to choose which improbable comeback is more likely, give me Pat Murphy and the Fightin' Crew. For starters, Snell and Yamamoto just threw two of the best games in postseason history, and they also happen to be two of the best in the business at inducing hitters to chase — which got Milwaukee, one of the most patient offenses in baseball, out of its element. Glasnow, on the other hand, is in the first percentile for chase rate, and the Brewers should be far more comfortable making him come to them after how the last two games have gone.
Of course, how Milwaukee itself will cobble together a viable pitching plan after using Freddy Peralta in Game 2 is an equally thorny question. But it's one that the Brewers have been answering all season long, throwing quantity at the problem and somehow making it work. Jacob Misiorowski is fresh, and there are still several intriguing arms that can give Murphy length out of the bullpen. And really, all the Brewers need to do is get things to the late innings, where we've already seen just how shaky this Dodgers relief corps can be. That bullpen is probably the weakest unit between L.A. and Seattle, and represents the most likely path to a comeback.