Dodgers playoff roster reeks of Dave Roberts overthinking Phillies matchup

A postseason showdown between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies feels more like a World Series than an NLDS, at least as far as star power is concerned. Philly ran roughshod over the NL East this season, and while L.A. had a few more bumps in the road than anticipated, this is still largely the same team that won it all 12 months ago — one that has Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman in their lineup and Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (not to mention Ohtani again) in the rotation. With this much talent on the field in a best-of-five series, every single decision has an outsized impact.

The first of those decisions came before a pitch was even thrown in Game 1 on Saturday night. The Dodgers released their 26-man roster on Saturday morning, and it was hard not to notice a couple very interesting differences:

The position player group remains exactly the same. The Dodgers will carry a third catcher, Ben Rortvedt, while Will Smith continues to recover from a hand injury. Michael Conforto once again failed to make the cut, with Alex Call and Justin Dean in the outfield along with utility men Hyeseong Kim and Enrique Hernandez.

The bullpen, however, looks substantially different. In are a couple of lefties, most notably Clayton Kershaw, who will shift into a relief role (alongside Tyler Glasnow) while Ohtani, Snell and Yamamoto serve as L.A.'s three starters. Out are a couple of righties who were present on the Wild Card roster, Justin Wrobleski and Edgardo Henriquez.

The goal here is obvious enough: Against a Phillies lineup that is largely driven by left-handed sluggers like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, the Dodgers want to make sure they have plenty of lefty looks to go to as the game progresses. The problem, though, is that they might be sacrificing a bit too much to do so — and they might have Philly's strengths and weaknesses all wrong.

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Dodgers NLDS roster could play right into the Phillies' hands

It's undoubtedly a cool story, one more chance to watch a legend pitch at the end of what's been a first-ballot Hall of Fame career. But from a cold, calculating perspective, it's hard to feel too great about the prospect of Kershaw coming on in high-leverage relief. He's hardly ever done it, even in October, and the last time he did ... well, let's just say it didn't go great.

They haven't all been that bad, but he's not someone you want to be looking toward as a lefty killer in a big postseason spot. Banda has been a reliable weapon against left-handed hitting throughout his career, and particularly over the last couple of seasons with the Dodgers. But he's definitely not someone you want facing righties under pretty much any circumstances, and he walked a whopping six batters in eight innings during last year's postseason run.

So you're potentially compromising the quality of pitcher that Dave Roberts has to call upon in the name of strategic advantage. And the real kicker? While the Phillies do indeed have some big lefty boppers to try and work around, there isn't a ton of evidence to suggest that the Dodgers' strategy here will actually work.

Phillies lineup isn't as vulnerable to lefties as the Dodgers may think

Schwarber and Harper do have better numbers against righties than lefties in their careers, but they still hit left-handers awfully well — and Schwarber has actually done more damage against southpaws this season (.964 OPS vs. .904). Plus, it's not like the Phillies have a completely lefty-dependent lineup; sure, guys like Brandon Marsh, Max Kepler and Bryson Stott have significant platoon splits, but there are plenty of bench options like Harrison Bader, Otto Kemp and Weston Wilson ready to fill in. That's just one reason why Philly was almost as dangerous against lefties as a team this year (.747 OPS, sixth-best in baseball) as they were against righties (.764, tied for fourth).

Yes, it's good to have lefty specialists on call for the inevitable moment when Schwarber, Harper or somebody else steps up in a critical spot. But those lefties need to be able to actually execute when the moment arises, and there's reason to doubt both Kershaw's and Banda's abilities to do just that. Shifting Glasnow to the bullpen does give Roberts another righty option to work with, but as of right now the options behind him (Blake Treinen, Emmet Sheehan) don't inspire a ton of confidence. All of a sudden, Roki Sasaki might be the man who makes or breaks this bullpen, which is a wild place to be in considering how this season has unfolded.