Every MLB contender’s postseason fate may hinge on this one choice

The MLB postseason is just a couple of weeks away. We don't officially know the 12 teams set to participate, but there's a very good chance that the 12 teams currently sitting in postseason positioning will make their way to October.

Getting to the postseason is a tremendous accomplishment that all 12 of these teams should celebrate, but the ultimate goal goes well beyond just getting in. Winning the World Series is the obvious goal.

Whether these teams can get the job done or not could depend on these crucial choices.

Each contending team's most difficult postseason decision

1. Toronto Blue Jays
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Seattle Mariners
4. New York Yankees
5. Boston Red Sox
6. Houston Astros
7. Milwaukee Brewers
8. Philadelphia Phillies
9. Los Angeles Dodgers
10. Chicago Cubs
11. San Diego Padres
12. New York Mets

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Toronto Blue Jays

What should Trey Yesavage's role be?

The Toronto Blue Jays are in a position to not only win the AL East, but also be the No. 1 seed in the American League, allowing them to have home-field advantage through the ALCS. While they're sitting pretty standings-wise, they have a problem that many teams are envious of: What in the world should they do with Trey Yesavage in October?

Yesavage proved in his MLB debut that he should play a role in the postseason no matter what. That might seem like an outlandish statement, but he allowed just one run on three hits in five innings of work and struck out nine in his first-ever start. He generated a ton of swings and misses and his splitter looked like one of the best individual pitches in the league. There's no question as to whether he's one of Toronto's 13 best pitchers, but again, what should his role be?

Toronto's bullpen has been a mess in the second half, so plugging the strikeout artist into the late-inning mix is certainly tempting. Turning to Yesavage for a couple of innings behind a starter and in front of Jeff Hoffman feels like a winning formula, but would it be wise to use him out of the bullpen when he can start?

Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber should start the first two games of the ALDS (assuming the Jays clinch the first-round bye), but between Max Scherzer, Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt, they don't have a reliable third starter. Yesavage could be that guy.

The reality of the situation is that Toronto could use him in both spots. Whether they trust a different member of their rotation to start or their non-Hoffman relievers to pitch late in games remains to be seen.

Detroit Tigers

Who starts behind Tarik Skubal?

The Detroit Tigers have the good fortune of rostering the best pitcher on the planet, Tarik Skubal, who is on his way toward winning his second straight AL Cy Young award. As great as it is to have a starter as dominant as Skubal, there's only so much he can do. I mean, he can't pitch every single day, as ideal as that might be.

With that in mind, the Tigers must figure out who slots behind Skubal in their postseason rotation. They had hoped Jack Flaherty would be the answer when they signed him this past offseason, but he's had a down year. Tigers fans hoped Scott Harris would've addressed this at the trade deadline, but neither Charlie Morton nor Chris Paddack is the answer.

As of now, Casey Mize, a first-time All-Star with a 3.88 ERA, is probably the answer. Mize has a 5.96 ERA in his last 11 starts, so this isn't exactly ideal, but he's been better in September and is probably the team's most consistent starter other than Skubal.

Winning Skubal's starts is obviously a must, but even if the Tigers win all of them, they'll need to win other games too. Mize probably gives them the best chance, but A.J. Hinch must be the one to figure that out.

Seattle Mariners

Should Matt Brash be the primary setup man?

The Seattle Mariners' roster and lineup are fairly set, but I have one question about their bullpen: How much can we trust Matt Brash? This feels crazy because, at his best, Brash is one of the premier relievers in the game. He can strike hitters out in bunches, and his slider might be the best in the game. His numbers, fresh off Tommy John surgery, are quite good, as he has a 2.58 ERA in 51 appearances with a 28.8 percent strikeout rate, but his production lately has left a lot to be desired.

Brash allowed his first run of the season on July 2. Since then, he's posted a 4.18 ERA in 32 appearances and has allowed 30 hits and 11 walks across 28 innings of work. Since the start of August, he has a 4.74 ERA in 21 appearances, allowing 22 hits and six walks in 19 innings. He's still striking out a ton of batters, but he's allowed a ton of baserunners too.

There's no disputing Brash is supremely talented, but based on how the past couple of months have gone, should Seattle really have him as the primary setup man for Andres Munoz — especially when considering they have guys like Gabe Speier and Eduard Bazardo in their 'pen having fantastic seasons?

I'd probably bank on Brash's talent and experience in the eighth-inning role, but what Dan Wilson decides to do could dictate Seattle's October fate.

New York Yankees

Who is the Yankees' Game 3 starter?

The New York Yankees will almost certainly start Max Fried and Carlos Rodon in their first two postseason games, but who should the Game 3 starter be? There are really three options.

• Cam Schlittler: 12 GS, 3.41 ERA, 60.2 IP, 69 SO, 29 BB
• Luis Gil: 9 GS, 3.33 ERA, 46.0 IP, 36 SO, 29 BB
• Will Warren: 32 GS, 4.35 ERA, 157.1 IP, 164 SO, 64 BB

Schlittler has the best strikeout stuff, Gil has the lowest ERA and Warren has made more starts than the other two combined. Warren's numbers aren't quite as impressive, but he's had some good moments, and the fact that he's made every start certainly matters.

While all three of these options have a case, I believe that Schlittler should be the third starter, and it isn't really close. Not only does he have the best strikeout stuff of the bunch, but he's also allowed three runs or fewer in all but two of his starts. He's been remarkably consistent for the most part, and it's also worth noting that he's allowed a total of one home run in his last seven starts after allowing six in his first five.

Schlittler deserves it, and I also believe Gil, the co-favorite to earn this nod, is not as good as his ERA would indicate. In 14 fewer innings than Schlittler, Gil has issued the same number of walks and 30 fewer strikeouts. Just let that sink in. He's having a ton of trouble locating and has not been generating much swing and miss. He's been able to keep runs off the board, but when he faces good teams in the postseason, how likely is it that he'll get away with walking so many batters, especially without having quality strikeout stuff?

Gil was really good last season in his Rookie of the Year campaign, but he just hasn't looked like that guy in 2025. The Yankees shouldn't assume that guy will suddenly show up in the postseason. Schlittler should be the No. 3 starter, and whether Aaron Boone goes in that direction or not could determine their fate.

Boston Red Sox

Where should Alex Bregman hit in the lineup?

It feels insane that I'm even asking this question, but how can I not? Alex Bregman looked like the perfect fit in Boston for the first three or four months of the season, but he's gone ice-cold at the worst possible time. Even after hitting a home run and drawing a pair of walks on Friday night, Bregman is slashing .200/.288/.338 with two home runs and seven RBI in September, and he is hitting .162 with a .503 OPS in his last 25 games.

A 25-game sample size isn't massive, but it isn't microscopic either. For nearly a month's time, Bregman has been a negative-value player (-0.4 fWAR in his last 25 games), and that's almost entirely because of his bat. Knowing Bregman, he's bound to break out at some point. Perhaps Friday was the start of a special run. What if it isn't, though?

We all know Bregman will, and should, play every single postseason game, but should he continue to hit second or third as he's done exclusively this season? Admittedly, Roman Anthony being out makes it harder to move Bregman away from the top of the order, and it's not as if anyone on the team has done much to threaten Bregman's place in the lineup, but his production just isn't close to worthy of a guy who should be hitting high up in the order.

The last thing the Boston Red Sox can afford in October is to have a reeling hitter come up in huge spots and not come through. If Bregman continues to struggle down the stretch, Alex Cora must consider making a change (if the Red Sox are able to get in at all).

Houston Astros

Where should Jose Altuve play?

The Houston Astros got shocking news on Friday as Isaac Paredes, a player most thought was out for the season after a hamstring tear, returned from the IL. Paredes' injury appeared to be so major that the Astros traded for Carlos Correa as a third baseman. Now that Paredes is back, the question of where Jose Altuve should play is one worth asking.

Altuve is an Astros legend at second base, but his defense now just isn't close to what it was before. He's been better this season (0 OAA, -7 DRS) than he was last season (-9 OAA, -13 DRS), but he also hasn't played the position nearly as much. Houston hoped to move Altuve off the position permanently and move him to left field, but his defense in the outfield (-5 OAA, -9 DRS) is far from stellar as well.

In an ideal world, Altuve would DH, and he's done so plenty this season, but Paredes figures to do most of that fresh off a major injury. Obviously, the Astros are going to play Altuve, one of the sport's best postseason performers, regularly. But where?

Playing him at second base gives them better offense by allowing Zach Cole and Jesus Sanchez to play the corner outfield spots, but playing him in the outfield gives them better infield defense by using Mauricio Dubon at second base.

Joe Espada is going to have to play the matchups and decide what he wants to do. The button he pushes in this instance is a very important one.

Milwaukee Brewers

Will Jacob Misiorowski factor in at all?

Jacob Misiorowski looked like an instant ace when he made his Milwaukee Brewers debut. He was so impressive in his first five starts that MLB even controversially gave him an All-Star nod. This might've been premature, as Misiorowski has a 5.45 ERA in his nine starts since the break and a 6.23 ERA in seven starts since returning from an IL stint in mid-August. He's surpassed five innings just once in those seven outings, and that came against the Pittsburgh Pirates, arguably the worst offensive team in the league.

Things have gone so poorly for Misiorowski lately that manager Pat Murphy made it clear that the Brewers are considering moving him to the bullpen — and that he won't be a starter for them come October.

Misiorowski, as a reliever, is a fascinating idea. 13 of his 68 Minor League appearances came in relief, so he does have some experience in that role, but he hasn't worked out of the 'pen at all in the Majors. Based on how things have gone for him lately, would the Brewers be comfortable using him in any sort of leverage spots in the postseason?

We know he has the stuff for it. Misiorowski has a 32.4 percent strikeout rate, placing him in the 95th percentile per Baseball Savant, and he's done a good job limiting hard contact. He also has a 10.4 percent walk rate, good for the 17th percentile. Relievers can ill-afford to walk anybody, especially when pitching in important spots. Do the Brewers trust him enough to throw strikes?

I have no doubt that Misiorowski is among the 13 best pitchers the Brewers have, but his struggles lately, compounded with his inability to throw strikes at times, make this an interesting case. Misiorowski could be a lethal weapon in relief, but he could also cost Milwaukee big time.

Philadelphia Phillies

How much should Nick Castellanos play?

The Philadelphia Phillies had one of MLB's worst outfields in the first half of the season, but the script has flipped down the stretch. Harrison Bader has been a godsend, Brandon Marsh has been underratedly awesome and even Max Kepler has stepped it up lately when his roster spot appeared to be on thin ice. That trio performing as well as they have has caused Nick Castellanos, a player who appeared in all 162 games in 2024, to lose a substantial amount of playing time down the stretch.

The loss of playing time was warranted, as Castellanos was having an underwhelming offensive year (in addition to being a putrid defender) for the first five months of the season, but he's hitting .323 with a .901 OPS in 34 September plate appearances. He's swinging the bat as well as he has in quite some time.

Not only is Castellanos getting hot now, but he has a history of coming through in October. In the 2023 NLDS, Castellanos practically carried them to a series win against the Atlanta Braves. Even in last year's embarrassing NLDS defeat, Castellanos was really the only Phillies position player to show up. He's been streaky in October overall, but do the Phillies want to risk missing out on a Castellanos hot streak?

In all likelihood, Castellanos is going to play against lefties and give way to Kepler and Marsh against righties, but should that be the case if he continues to swing a hot bat down the stretch? That can be debated.

Los Angeles Dodgers

How should Shohei Ohtani, the pitcher, be handled?

Shohei Ohtani the hitter is going to hit at the top of the order in every single postseason game, and deservingly so. What makes Ohtani such a unicorn, though, is his ability to hit and pitch. We didn't get to see this in last year's postseason, but Ohtani has been pitching for much of 2025, and has been pretty darn good.

Ohtani has a 3.29 ERA in 13 starts this season and has allowed one earned run or fewer 10 times. He's had a couple of rough outings, but for the most part, Ohtani has been nothing short of ace-like. Given that, the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to want him pitching, but using him as a starter isn't so simple.

Ohtani has done nothing but start in his big-league career, and he probably should do the same in October, but there are a couple of concerns. First and foremost, he has not surpassed the five-inning mark a single time. Do the Dodgers want to change that in October? If not, should Ohtani be used out of the bullpen instead to not tire out the relievers? The bullpen solution might sound ideal, but with the rules as constructed, the Dodgers would lose the DH — and Ohtani's bat if they started him at DH and then used him as a reliever. Second, Ohtani has only ever pitched every sixth day in the Majors. How would he adjust to pitching on a quicker turnaround in October?

Ohtani messing up his routine and working out of the bullpen (while also complicating the DH situation, and potentially forcing him into the outfield) probably isn't going to happen, but it'll be interesting to see how the Dodgers handle Ohtani as a starter. Will he work on three or four days rest when needed? Will he go beyond five innings? Would it be wise to push him beyond where he's gone this year with the season on the line? These are questions Dave Roberts has to answer.

Chicago Cubs

Who will start Game 1?

Entering the season, the Chicago Cubs had co-aces Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele set to lead the way. Imanaga has been as advertised, but Steele suffered a season-ending injury, leaving the Cubs short-handed in the rotation. Cubs fans hoped to see Jed Hoyer find a Steele replacement at the trade deadline, but Michael Soroka certainly is not that. A postseason rotation consisting of Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton and Jameson Taillon feels extremely likely. The only question is, how will those pitchers be ordered?

Honestly, three pitchers have a case to start Game 1. Imanaga has the best track record, Boyd has had the best season and Horton has been the best of the trio lately. If it were me, I'd probably ride the hot hand and give the Game 1 start to the rookie.

Horton has pitched his way into the NL Rookie of the Year race, posting a 1.29 ERA in 13 starts since the beginning of July. He's allowed just 10 runs in 70 innings of work in that span, and four of those runs came in one start. He's allowed one run or fewer in 11 of those 13 starts. He's been as dominant as any pitcher in the league.

Imanaga has long been the ace of the staff, but I'm not sure he misses enough bats for me to trust him in a Game 1 start. Boyd's season-long numbers are great, but he has a 5.34 ERA in his last 10 outings. I'm not sure he's pitching well enough to warrant anything other than a Game 3 start.

My guess is that Craig Counsell will hand the ball to the veteran Imanaga over the rookie Horton, but I'm not sure I agree with that line of thinking.

San Diego Padres

Who starts a Game 3?

The San Diego Padres have the best bullpen in the Majors by far, but that bullpen will only come to good use if they have leads to protect. Is this starting rotation good enough to hand the ball to the bullpen with a lead? I have faith in Michael King and Nick Pivetta's ability to do that, but who should be pitching after them?

Dylan Cease would theoretically be the obvious answer, but should he be? I mean, he's finished in the top four of the Cy Young balloting twice since 2022 and has been widely considered one of the best starting pitchers in the game for quite a while. This season, though, Cease has a 4.64 ERA in 31 starts. He's even failed to complete five innings a whopping 10 times.

It's hard to trust Cease knowing that at any moment he can walk the ballpark and has trouble pitching deep into games, but who else is there? Yu Darvish has a 5.63 ERA in 13 starts. Randy Vasquez has a sub-4.00 ERA in his 26 appearances, but is he really more trustworthy than a proven veteran like Cease in a big game?

The Padres presumably will, and probably should, lean on Cease, a pitcher with sky-high upside who did pitch well in his only start this season against the Chicago Cubs — San Diego's likely opponent in the Wild Card series.

New York Mets

What does the starting rotation look like?

The New York Mets' starting rotation was the biggest reason why they got off to such an auspicious beginning to the 2025 regular season. Their starting rotation is also the biggest reason why they've collapsed down the stretch and are on the verge of potentially missing the postseason entirely. The Mets still sit in the third Wild Card spot, but it's far from a given that they make it to October. And even if they do, who in the world is going to pitch for them?

The one solid answer to that question is Nolan McLean, a rookie who has made just six starts. It might be premature to name him the ace of the staff, but when he has a 1.19 ERA while the rest of the rotation has as many questions as it does, who am I to say that he isn't the ace?

Who pitches behind him, though? David Peterson looked like their potential Game 1 starter for much of the year en route to an All-Star nod, but he has a 6.99 ERA in his last nine starts. Sean Manaea was their ace last season, but he has a 5.40 ERA in 12 appearances and has looked better pitching in bulk relief than as a starter. He seems to have tremendous difficulty whenever a lineup sees him for a second time, making him impossible to trust in a starting role. Kodai Senga was seemingly in the NL Cy Young conversation for the first three months of the season, but he struggled to the point where he was optioned down to Triple-A.

The Mets could roll with any of those veterans, or even Clay Holmes, a pitcher who hasn't been awful in his first full year as a starter. But they also have youngsters Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat, both of whom have shown flashes of brilliance. Their issue, though, is that they've made a combined seven starts. Do the Mets really want to rely on them, especially after already leading their rotation with a rookie?

The Mets have six or seven starters they can conceivably consider, yet only one of them, McLean, feels reliable. Whether Carlos Mendoza sides with veterans or youth remains to be seen, but whatever he decides could dictate how far the Mets go in the postseason, assuming they get there at all.