So it comes down to this: We've reached the final weekend of the 2025 regular season, every team with just three games left to shore up their spot in the postseason. And after an unexpectedly wild September, there's much more still left to be decided in both the AL and NL than we figured just a couple of weeks ago.
Who's going to win the AL East? How about the AL Central? Will the New York Mets and Houston Astros stave up late collapses and manage to reach October? Baseball fans have a lot of questions ahead of this weekend — and luckily, we've got answers.
Below, we'll break down the full playoff picture in both leagues and go through every possible permutation based on the results of this weekend's games.
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American League playoff scenarios entering the final weekend
AL East
This seemed like it was all buttoned up just a week or so ago, when the red-hot Toronto Blue Jays held a five-game lead (plus the head-to-head tiebreaker) over the New York Yankees. Not so fast, however: The Yankees have caught fire, with eight wins in their last nine games, and now the two teams enter the season's final weekend tied atop the standings at 91-68.
That tiebreaker could wind up proving decisive, and it means that the Yankees will have to outplay the Jays by one game over the next three in order to steal the division. If Toronto sweeps the Rays this weekend, the East is theirs. If they take two of three, New York will need to sweep the Orioles at home. If Toronto drops two of three, the Yankees simply need to win the series. And if the Jays somehow get swept by Tampa, then all New York needs is one more win.
The winner of this race will likely have the inside track on the No. 1 overall seed in the AL playoffs. Both teams are currently a game up on the Seattle Mariners, and both hold the head-to-head tiebreaker by virtue of winning the season series — meaning Seattle will have to pick up two whole games on whoever wins the East in order to snatch the top spot. Whoever falls short in the East will still be guaranteed of the top AL Wild Card spot and home-field advantage in the first round.
AL Central
Speaking of divisional races that have flipped on their head over the last couple of weeks! The Cleveland Guardians finally lost a game on Thursday night, as the fading Detroit Tigers were able to stop the bleeding (for now, anyway) and salvage the final game of their three-game set.
Where does that leave us entering the weekend? Cleveland and Detroit both sit at 86-73, but because the Guardians won the season series, they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker and will win the Central unless the Tigers can best them by at least one game over the season's final three. The schedule here is also working in Cleveland's favor, as they'll welcome the Rangers to town while Detroit has to go to Fenway Park to take on the Red Sox.
The winner of the Central battle is locked into the No. 3 seed in the AL playoffs, and will host a best-of-three Wild Card series next week. The loser could still feasibly finish as high as the No. 5 seed or fall out of the playoffs entirely, depending on other Wild Card machinations (more on that in a minute).
AL West
There's minimal drama here. For the first time in nearly a quarter century, the Seattle Mariners are your AL West champions, leaving the Houston Astros in the dust with a scorching September. Seattle could still snag the top overall seed, but they'll need to pick up two full games on the AL East winner — whether that's the Blue Jays or Yankees. More than likely, though, the Mariners will settle for the No. 2 seed and a bye to the ALDS, where they'll face the winner of the No. 3-No. 6 matchup.
AL Wild Card
Here's where things get wild. Let's start with what we can say with some degree of certainty: Whoever loses the race for the AL East, whether Toronto or New York, will be locked into the No. 4 seed and the second Wild Card spot. And if the Boston Red Sox are able to win just one game this weekend against the Tigers, they'll guarantee themselves the No. 5 seed thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Astros.
If Boston somehow gets swept at home this weekend, they could fall out of the postseason entirely if the Astros sweep the Angels in Anaheim. That's not the only playoff path Houston has in front of it: If Houston pulls off a sweep, they get the No. 6 seed if 1) Boston takes two of three, 2) Boston or Detroit sweep, 3) Texas takes two of three from Cleveland or 4) Texas sweeps Cleveland.
If the Astros are only able to take two of three from the Halos, things get more complicated: Houston would need either a Boston sweep of Detroit or a Texas sweep of Cleveland, due to the fact that the 'Stros lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to any of Cleveland, Boston or Detroit.
If you're a visual learner, here's how the most statistically likely bracket sets up right now.
- Toronto Blue Jays*/New York Yankees
- Seattle Mariners
- Cleveland Guardians
- Toronto Blue Jays*/New York Yankees
- Boston Red Sox
- Detroit Tigers
*denotes the head-to-head tiebreaker
National League playoff scenarios entering the final weekend
NL East
The East has been wrapped up for weeks now, thanks to the Phillies' second-half surge and the Mets' late collapse. The Phillies could still technically snag the No. 1 overall seed out from under the Brewers, but given that Milwaukee holds a two-game lead in the standings and the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage, it would require a Philly sweep of the Twins this weekend (pretty likely!) along with the Brewers getting swept by the Reds at home (... less so). Odds are the Phillies will finish at No. 2 and host Game 1 of the NLDS in 10 days' time.
NL Central
As stated above, Milwaukee is in pole position in the NL playoffs, with just one win this weekend necessary to secure home-field advantage through the World Series. (No AL team can finish with a better overall record than the Brew Crew.)
NL West
The Dodgers made it a bit more interesting than expected, but a win over Arizona on Thursday finally made it official: L.A. is once again the king of the NL West. The Dodgers can't catch either of the two teams ahead of them in the NL standings, though, meaning that Shohei Ohtani and Co. are locked into the No. 3 seed and will have to survive a best-of-three Wild Card series to reach the NLDS. As for who that series might be against ...
NL Wild Card
The Cubs and Padres will finish 4-5 in some order. Chicago enters the weekend with a two-game lead over San Diego in the standings, meaning that Craig Counsell's team simply needs to take two of three against the Cardinals at Wrigley to clinch the No. 4 seed and home-field advantage in the Wild Card round. If Chicago somehow loses the series, though, things get interesting: The divisional record tiebreaker would favor San Diego in that instance, meaning that the Padres would take the No. 4 seed if they sweep the D-backs at home this weekend. (If Chicago gets swept by St. Louis, San Diego would just need to take two of three.) Odds are that these two teams will meet next week in Chicago for what should be an awesome Wild Card series, but it's not set in stone just yet.
From there, the only outstanding question is who will nab the third and final NL Wild Card spot. The Mets enter the weekend one game up on the Reds and two games up on Arizona. The downside, though, is that New York doesn't hold the head-to-head tiebreaker against either of those teams. That means that New York's magic number against the D-backs is two, and their magic number against Cincinnati is three.
The Mets are in control of their own destiny here; if they sweep the Marlins in Miami this weekend, they're guaranteed the No. 6 seed. If they win two of three, the D-backs are eliminated — while the Reds could steal the final playoff spot by sweeping the Brewers in Milwaukee. If the Mets lose two of three, then Cincy — which also holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Arizona — would guarantee itself the No. 6 seed by taking two of three. If the Mets get swept, well, then all hell breaks loose. Here's a handy list to help you break it all down.
Mets makes playoffs if:
- Sweep of Marlins
- Win two of three AND
- Lose two of three AND
- Get swept AND
Reds lose at least one game
Reds lose at least two games AND
D-backs lose at least one game
Reds get swept AND
D-backs lose at least two games
Here's how the most likely playoff bracket shakes out right now, subject to much change:
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Chicago Cubs
- San Diego Padres
- New York Mets