15. Cleveland Guardians
Biggest offseason move so far: N/A
Speaking of which: Can someone please get Jose Ramirez some help? Barring a surprise sell-off of someone like Steven Kwan, the Guardians should return most of last year's division winners, and they always seem to churn out pitching and find a way to punch above their weight. But it took a miracle to capture the AL Central, and while the farm system is exciting (and growth from guys like Kyle Manzardo, Brayan Rocchio and Chase DeLauter should help), there's still just not enough offense here.
14. San Diego Padres
Biggest offseason move so far: Re-signing RHP Michael King
Managing to retain King was a pleasant surprise, giving San Diego a solid top three to go with that lights-out bullpen. I still just don't see the vision here, though: This remains a terribly top-heavy offense, without much beyond Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill. Neither the lineup nor the rotation likely has the depth to make a serious run, and even AJ Preller might struggle to add more talent with the resources he's been given.
13. Houston Astros
Biggest offseason move so far: Acquiring RHP Mike Burrows from the Pirates in a three-team deal
Speaking of a lack of depth: How exactly is this Astros rotation cobbling together enough innings to survive as currently constituted? Unknowns and injury risks abound behind Hunter Brown, and it doesn't seem like there's a ton of money in the budget to change that in a meaningful way. Which wouldn't hurt so badly if this lineup hadn't started showing its age; unless Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Christian Walker all turn back the clock in a major way — and Yordan Alvarez can finally stay on the field — a Wild Card spot might be the ceiling.
12. Detroit Tigers
Biggest offseason move so far: Signing RHP Kenley Jansen
This is assuming that Detroit decides to hold on to Tarik Skubal for at least the 2026 season, which I still think is the most likely outcome given how hard it is to construct a realistic trade. The Tigers have done some shrewd bullpen work so far this winter, but they still don't have enough behind Skubal in the rotation to win multiple playoff series, and they still haven't found a way to meaningfully upgrade a frustratingly inconsistent offense. There's some room for internal growth here, especially with guys like Parker Meadows (please stay healthy), Colt Keith, Jace Jung and Kevin McGonigle. But that's an awfully tough ask, and there's no reason why this team can't afford an Alex Bregman-type bat.
11. New York Mets
Biggest offseason move so far: Signing RHPs Devin Williams and Luke Weaver
It's no doubt been a frustrating start to the offseason for the Mets and their fans, but I do think the consensus has swung too low on this team both in 2026 and beyond. Williams and Weaver were strong pivots from Edwin Diaz in the bullpen, and Nolan McLean looks ready for Cy Young contention right away. There are too many holes here to consider them a serious World Series contender as currently constituted — they need to keep adding relievers, plus at least one outfielder and another starter as well — but I'd be surprised if they're not at least in the hunt for a Wild Card spot. And there's still plenty of time left for David Stearns to make a splash.