Despite rarely being connected to him throughout the process, the Houston Astros emerged as the winners of the Tatsuya Imai sweepstakes in free agency. It's actually a phenomenal deal for both the team and player, as the Japanese right-hander signed a three-year pact worth up to $21 million per season and with opt-outs after each year. But it's more interesting to consider what this means for Houston now, but also moving forward.
In the immediate, if Imai lives up to his billing as he comes to MLB, the Astros should once again compete to win the AL West and, as such, simply be in the postseason mix. But that's likely to happen while losing Framber Valdez in free agency, or rather, letting him walk. But Valdez isn't the only notable Astro who signing Imai could ultimately show the door if you can read some of the tea leaves.
Houston Astros who will be shown the door after Imai signing
SP Framber Valdez
Especially considering some of his quite public antics last season, I was never in favor of the Astros bringing Valdez back into the fold. But now that Houston has ostensibly signed his replacement in Imai, then I truly see no chance of Valdez coming back.
Make no mistake, the southpaw has been phenomenal on the mound in his time with the Astros when you look at the production. Over parts of eight seasons with Houston, he pitched to a 3.36 ERA with a 1.204 WHIP and a 2.71 K/BB ratio. He was one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball. At the same time, he came with being prickly and, at times, not exactly looking like a good teammate. But that created a weird dichotomy coming into this offseason wherein the talent likely means he's going to get paid handsomely, but the character concerns don't make him a fit everywhere.
And the combination of that certainly doesn't make him a fit for the Astros any longer. Imai can slot into his spot in the rotation behind Hunter Brown, and will be doing so at a much cheaper cost. For a team like Houston, we know that factor of price is always in play. And with this also being at Valdez's position, it puts the writing plain as day on the wall.
IF Isaac Paredes
Acquired in the Kyle Tucker trade last offseason, Isaac Paredes came over and truly played well when he was on the field, even if he was part of a team that failed to make it to October. The tough part for the Astros newcomer was that he was limited to just 102 games in Houston. But now, Paredes' name has popped up this offseason in trade rumors, which situationally is something to read into, and something that committing $21 million per season to Imai makes even more relevant.
Paredes has two more years of arbitration and club control before he becomes a free agent. And the Astros of late have made it quite clear that they aren't all that interested in handing out major free agency deals when contracts are expiring, a la Kyle Tucker. Instead, it does seem like they prefer to trade those players near the end of their deals to help replenish the farm system under their current structure.
Now, that doesn't guarantee that Paredes will be moved this offseason. However, it does put into perspective that his future with the Astros is quite limited, and committing the money to Imai only further solidifies this.
SS Jeremy Peña
In some ways, the situation with Jeremy Peña is similar to that of Paredes. The Astros' star shortstop also has just two years of club control remaining, which means that he's also a candidate to possibly be moved rather than extended or re-signed in free agency. At the same time, Peña's case is quite a bit more complicated than the situation with Paredes in the wake of the commitment to Imai.
Peña has been a force for the Astros as a defensive wizard since he made his big-league debut in 2022, but really came on with the bat in the 2025 season, posting a career-best .840 OPS with 17 home runs and 30 doubles in just 125 games on the year. Despite being 31 when he does hit free agency, though, he's the type of talent that appears worthy of a long-term commitment.
Yet, there have been some muted murmurs this offseason as well that Houston could follow a similar path with Peña that they did with Tucker. I'm much less confident in that being the case than I am in someone like Paredes being traded, but the Imai signing undoubtedly makes you take the possibility under consideration a bit more.
SP Lance McCullers Jr.
Let's wrap up here by playing the role of Captain Obvious. Obviously, it'd be in bad form to be too harsh to Lance McCullers given that he returned to the mound after missing almost 2.5 years due to arm injuries. That's an incredible feat in itself, and one that deserve plenty of flowers for the veteran right-hander.
But the unfortunate reality is that the injuries largely appear to have taken their toll. McCullers made 13 starts and 16 total appearances for the Astros last year, and posted a dismal 6.51 ERA with a 1.807 WHIP. His hits per nine and strikeouts per nine were identical at 9.9. It really was just plain ugly any way you want to slice it, and we're already at the point where his viability for any role in the 2026 season should already be called into question.
With that being said, though, he's not a free agent until two seasons from now, which puts Houston in a tough spot. As things currently stand, it shouldn't be surprising if McCullers is either traded (with a prospect attached, potentially) in a salary dump, or is outright designated for assignment to get clear of his contract as well. It's a sad end for someone who was damn good prior to the injuries, but he's looked nothing like the same player since his return.