How should Rob Thomson build the Phillies' postseason rotation without Zack Wheeler?

With Zack Wheeler done for the season, Philadelphia's rotation, once a strength, becomes a significant source of anxiety ahead of the playoffs.
Detroit Tigers v Philadelphia Phillies
Detroit Tigers v Philadelphia Phillies | Caean Couto/GettyImages

The Philadelphia Phillies were hit with expected, but no less painful bad news on Saturday afternoon: Zack Wheeler is done for the season.

The Cy Young frontrunner has his season cut short by thoracic outlet syndrome, which led to a blood clot in his throwing shoulder. This is an ailment Philadelphians are a little bit too familiar with after Markelle Fultz, former No. 1 pick of the 76ers, "forgot" how to shoot amid complications with his shoulder.

This is incredibly unfortunate for Wheeler and the Phillies. Once a strength, the Phils' dominant rotation has suddenly been kneecapped. Wheeler has been the best pitcher in MLB this season, with a only a few possible exceptions. Luckily Cristopher Sánchez belongs to that very same class of aces, but two great pitchers is always better than one.

Philly still has plenty of firepower in the rotation, but what once felt like the best five-man group in MLB now feels vulnerable. Ranger Suárez and Jesús Luzardo have both struggled over the second half of the campaign. Aaron Nola recently returned from a major injury and hasn't quite looked like himself. Taijuan Walker, with all due respect, just cannot be trusted in a high-leverage postseason start.

Not long ago, Andrew Painter felt like the solution to a conundrum like this. But Philadelphia's No. 1 prospect has struggled in Triple-A of late, making it difficult to trust him in the big leagues. As such, the Phils' options are limited. Here is what Rob Thomson can do with the rotation come October.

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Here's how the Phillies postseason rotation should look

Order

Name

1

LHP Cristopher Sánchez

2

RHP Aaron Nola

3

LHP Jesús Luzardo

The Phillies still have quality options here. Ranger Suárez should've been an All-Star and even after a rocky month, his ERA sits at 3.25 with a 1.17 WHIP across 19 starts. Taijuan Walker, against all odds, has a 3.44 ERA and 1.28 WHIP through 27 games (16 starts). He has been calm under pressure all season, consistently pitching himself out of jams.

There is a genuine merit-based argument for Taijuan, which is a concept that would have melted brains a year ago. Suárez has a strong postseason track record and may be good enough to justify stretching out to a four-man rotation, depending on gameflow and other factors once October arrives.

For now, however, the three-man group above feels like the safest bet. Sánchez should get Cy Young votes and he's the easy Game 1 starter. Luzardo, while extremely hit or miss of late, has still peaked higher than any non-Wheeler or Sánchez pitcher in the Phillies rotation this season. He has elite stuff and is capable of mowing through a lineup for seven innings when he's locked in.

Aaron Nola is still in the Phillies postseason mix — for now

Nola is the wild card — and probably the most controversial name mentioned here. He has a 6.92 ERA in 10 starts this season, allowing seven hits and six earned runs in just 2.1 innings upon his return from injury a week ago.

We have yet to see Nola live up to his usual standards this season, but he also hasn't been healthy. A sustained ramp-up period over the next month or so should give the Phillies a more concrete idea of where Nola stands. Ideally, he can start to regain his form in time for October, that way the Phillies aren't reliant on back-to-back-to-back lefties. And, while Nola's postseason track record has its warts, he is an extremely accomplished member of this Phillies staff. He gets the benefit of the doubt more than just about anyone.

This is, of course, subject to change if the 31-year-old exhibits zero meaningful improvement over the final month. A few more bumpy starts on the mound could force Philly to reckon with Nola's baseball mortality — at least as far as this season is concerned. In that case, Suárez is hardly a bad alternative.

In the meantime, Suárez and Walker can solidify the heart of the bullpen and give Philly some more depth in front of Jhoan Durán, Orion Kerkering and the late-relief brigade. This feels like the right setup until further notice.