How the Sonny Gray trade affects the rest of MLB's starting pitching market

Who said the MLB offseason takes Thanksgiving off? Rather than ease into the holiday break, we got another blockbuster deal out of nowhere on Tuesday, as the Boston Red Sox acquired righty Sonny Gray from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for a pair of pitchers in Richard Fitts and Brandon Clarke. (St. Louis will also be sending $20 million in cash to Boston, turning Gray's contract into a one-year deal worth $21 million for luxury-tax purposes.)

It's a fascinating deal to break down from both sides. But it also carries fascinating implications for the league as a whole, as the dam has been broken on a starting pitching market full of trade candidates. One of those candidates is now off the board, and a signal has been sent to other teams that the time is now to make a deal.

Need to Know

• Acquiring Gray by no means takes Boston out of the starting pitcher market
• The Cardinals' solid return should send a signal to other sellers
• That could be big news for names like Joe Ryan, Sandy Alcantara and Freddy Peralta

The Red Sox aren't done revamping their rotation after landing Sonny Gray

If anything, acquiring Gray should make them even more aggressive elsewhere. Boston was one pitcher short even before parting ways with Lucas Giolito; they entered this winter needing multiple arms, and while this deal is a solid start, it looks a lot less solid if Gray enters the spring as the team's No. 2 starter.

Especially when you consider his age (he just turned 36 earlier this month) and the fact that he can — and almost certainly will — hit free agency next winter. Gray will improve this rotation in meaningful ways next year, but he doesn't make it World Series-caliber all by himself, and the Red Sox are still searching for a long-term running mate for Garrett Crochet. They could look to free agency to find one, with guys like Framber Valdez and Dylan Cease available; but it feels more likely, given Breslow's track record and the young pieces Boston has at hand, that the Sox will do so via trade.

For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.

Cardinals' return for Sonny Gray signals a very strong starting pitching market

In return for one year of Gray (at roughly $21 million), St. Louis received righty Richard Fitts and left-handed pitching prospect Brandon Clarke. Fitts is perfectly fine rotation depth for a Cardinals team that needs someone to soak up innings next season, but Clarke is the real draw here, one of the most tantalizing boom-or-bust pitchers in the Minors right now.

The assets are obvious; there simply aren't many prospects who can throw as hard from the left side, and offer as wicked a slider, as Clarke does. Of course, the red flags are equally obvious: He already underwent Tommy John while in college at Virginia, and he just posted a 5.08 ERA and a whopping 7.9 BB/9 in High-A as a 22-year-old. He may never be able to harness the stuff enough to stick in a big-league rotation, but if he does, the upside is truly immense.

He was expendable for a Boston organization that already has multiple young left-handers in front of him in the pecking order, most notably Payton Tolle and Connelly Early. But he's a real prospect, and the fact that the Cardinals were able to get him in return for one year of Gray — a good pitcher, certainly, but one who comes with his own warning signs as his fastball continues to decline — at $21 million is nice work from Chaim Bloom. It was an open question whether St. Louis could get anything of value for Gray; the answer turned out to be "yes," and you can bet that every other seller around the league took notice.

Which other aces could be on the move this winter, and where will they wind up?

This was already shaping up to be one of the most intriguing trade markets in recent memory, at least as far as starting pitching is concerned. And after Tuesday, any team (particularly any rebuilding team) with a starter other teams are interested in has every reason to pull the trigger. After all: If Gray, a good but declining pitcher with a fairly hefty price tag (even after factoring in the money the Cardinals are eating), can get a prospect like Clarke, just imagine what someone with more robust trade value might fetch?

Before you start: No, that doesn't mean you can start dreaming on Paul Skenes or Tarik Skubal coming to your favorite team. But even putting those names aside, look at how many feasible options there are for pitching-needy teams.

It still doesn't make a ton of sense for the Tigers and Reds to part with Skubal and Greene. But why wouldn't the Marlins part with one of Alcantara or Cabrera to help supplement their promising young core? The Brewers may have been on the fence about moving Freddy Peralta after winning 97 games this season, but if they can get multiple cost-controlled pieces that can contribute for years to come, they have to at least consider it.

The Twins, meanwhile, would be crazy not to move either Joe Ryan or Pablo Lopez (likely Ryan, given that he's young, cheaper and better at this point). Minnesota sure doesn't seem like it's going to be meaningfully competitive over the next two years, and at that point Ryan will be entering his age-32 season and about to hit free agency. The time to sell high is now, and the package in return should be awfully substantial.