How the Cubs can stop these 4 surging Brewers before the NL Central race tightens

Sometimes it feels like the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers are like Batman and the Joker in The Dark Knight, destined to battle it out with each other forever. It seemed like this would finally be the year that the Cubs, who've put together two separate 10-game winning streaks this season and started May with eight victories in a row, would assume control over the NL Central. And yet, despite selling Freddy Peralta over the winter; despite dealing with an almost comical rash of injuries; and despite a 12-13 record in the month of April, here the Brewers are again, just 1.5 games back of their rivals down I-94.

All of which sets the stage for the first clash of the year between these two pennant hopefuls, a three-game set at Wrigley Field starting Monday that could well determine the course of the Central race this season. Milwaukee enters as arguably the hottest team in the league thanks to eight wins in their last 10 games. Chicago, meanwhile, has lost six of 10, as old anxieties begin to crop up. It feels like these are two teams headed in opposite directions right now, and if the Cubs want to stem the tide, they're going to have to slow down several surging Brewers.

Get aggressive against Jacob Misiorowski

Look, I say this knowing full well that it's much easier said than done; the Miz has somehow taken another leap forward to start this season, firmly planting himself in the NL Cy Young conversation with a 2.12 ERA and 80 strikeouts in just 51 innings (!). But if the Cubs are going to give themselves a chance against Misiorowski, who starts the middle game on Tuesday for Milwaukee, they're going to have to get aggressive.

Command was once an Achilles heel for Misiorowski, but the big righty is throwing way more strikes in 2026 and has cut his walk rate by three percent. How important has getting ahead been to his success? His first-pitch strike rate has jumped from well below league average (58.1 percent) to well above it (65.8 percent). The later you get in the count against Miz, the harder your job becomes: Hitters have an OPS over .900 on the first pitch, but that plummets to .392 in two-strike situations and .321 when behind in the count at all. Chicago's big bats are going to have to get comfortable hunting first-pitch fastballs.

Make Jackson Chourio expand the strike zone

After missing the first six weeks or so due to injury, Chourio has returned to the Brewers lineup with a bang this month, with an .816 OPS, five doubles and a homer across his first 11 games. Brice Turang has done a marvelous job in his absence, but Chourio is still Milwaukee's X-factor.

He's also one of the team's most aggressive hitters, chasing a full 41.4 percent of the time so far (league average is around 28.5 percent). His 28.8 percent K rate and tiny 5.8 percent walk rate haven't come back to bite him so far, but Cubs pitchers — particularly Shota Imanaga, who has one of the highest chase rates of any big-league starter — need to avoid giving in and instead make Chourio expand and try to hit pitches out of the strike zone. When he gets something to drive right now, he's doing serious damage.

Be smart with how you navigate Andrew Vaughn and Jake Bauers

Bauers is another big bat whose return from injury roughly coincides with this recent hot streak, giving Milwaukee one of the best first-base platoons in the game between he and the lefty-hitting Jake Bauers. But while Vaughn has an 1.100 OPS against left-handed pitchers so far this season, that mark drops all the way to .701 against righties; likewise Bauers' production falls off a cliff when forced to face southpaws.

Granted, playing the matchups with these two is easier said than done; Craig Counsell can't afford to burn his bullpen irresponsibly, and counterpart Pat Murphy can always swap one with the other depending on the situation and the opposing pitcher.

Keep the running game under control by limiting free passes

Milwaukee's pitching has been the primary force behind its recent hot streak, but the offense has held up its end of the bargain by playing small ball: The Brewers rank dead last in baseball in isolated power (essentially slugging percentage minus batting average, a measure of how impactful the hits you're getting really are) over their last 18 games but have averaged just over five runs per game regardless.

This remains one of the most athletic and terrifying base-running teams in MLB, with threats up and down the lineup who can turn a single into a triple in a heartbeat. But as the old saying goes, you can't steal first base — and if Chicago can limit Milwaukee's 11.3 percent walk rate (fourth-best in the Majors in May), they can go a long way toward turning off the Brewers' water. Any free passes to guys like Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and David Hamilton are an absolute death sentence; the Cubs simply aren't good enough at controlling the running game. Chicago pitchers need to force the bottom half of this Brewers lineup to beat them in the batter's box, not on the bases.

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